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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (17947)	9/24/2003 3:31:33 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 19219

sigh ... it's a killer to be a month early. Lost some real $s on Sept expiry -- doing much better on other stuff, but it would have been better to look for real signs of the trend change first. Live and (hopefully) we learn ... Last time when I had a flat tire -- I had to wait in quite a large line at the local tire shop. I had a minute to talk to the owner and I looked outside and I said: "Business is GOOD ..." He said, "No. God is GOOD. All the rest is details ..."

To: J.T. who wrote (17947)	9/24/2003 11:59:00 PM
From: Wade	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Hi JT, I found that CRB Index and 30-year bond yield charts have shown divergent trend since May 2002. This can be seen very easily when I overlap these two charts with TC2000. The results indicated that the 30-year bond yield should be at 6.5 to 7.5, instead of the current 5.0. Therefore, a correction could be taking place in the near future, especially when US dollar index got beaten down. The only weapon Fed has is to keep the rates low and hope to revive the economy. But, that trend has to stop when inflation picking up due to the loose money policy and weak currency. I think the bond yields will be forced to go up eventually. Stock market could tumble suddenly if CRB Index breaks out to the new high. I believe it will happen because both oil and gold are leading the charge. The trend has been set. Good luck. Sincerely, Wade