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Strategies & Market Trends : Greater China Junior Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: getanewlife who wrote (274)	9/24/2003 10:55:34 PM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1992

GF, not a mathematical model, but a feeling that gold is a "fear trade" and in my language we have a saying that fear is a bad advisor... See, the "gloom and doom" community (the goldbugs) they do not usually buy the other commodities. And the central banks - well they usually do not sell the other commodities.. I do not want to get "fear motives" influence my investment decisions.. That's the reason why I would avoid gold.. In fact, right now I don't even have a single commodity producer, or commodity contract in my brokerage accounts. I do own an oil service stock and a lot of China related industrial companies - mostly in the pharma indutry. DRUG.OB, 0399.HK However I'm interested in DDing HK and SG listed techs - especially semis and optoelectronic companies or electronic component makers. I read that the new "prestige foundry" of the PRC, called SMIC, located in Shanghai will be IPOed on the NYSE. Current investment (book value) is at least USD $1.5bn. Well, the recent round of financing was able to attract funds at TWICE (!) book value.. Shanghai Industrial (Hong Kong lised) owns a chunk (I think 15%) of the fab.. That's a nice stock for example if you want to play on the emerging China Semiconductor fab biz model. There's a funny twist to this too. To develop it's semi business, China set up a tax of 17% on IC imports.. This makes domestic production of ICs of all kinds more than feasible.. now the US has the problem to decide whether China/PRC is a "big market" or a "security risk". The two positions are largely incompatible. On "security grounds" China was denied the most modern fab technology in the past. Now it's onboard the wtO and foreign IC makers demand to scrap the tax. However the PRC is linking the reduction or phase out of the IC import tax with access to top technology and the inclusion of itself as a "safe country" among the Wassenar accord... For me this means that the PRC semi industry CANNOT LOSE from a strategic point of view. IT'S a win-win for them and a "show me the money" on US interests. Plotting the commerce department vs. some defense - zealots. Well, the US will have to decide eventually I think. rgrds CROSSY