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To: StanX Long who wrote (11853)9/26/2003 1:37:01 AM
From: StanX Long  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95530
 
China economy could grow 9 percent in 2004 with robust pump priming

sg.biz.yahoo.com

Friday September 26, 12:36 PM

A leading Chinese research center has predicted the nation's economy will grow between 8.0 and 9.0 percent in 2004, depending on the extent that the government continues its six-year-old expansionist fiscal policy.

If the central government issues 120 billion yuan (14.49 billion dollars) in special treasury bills to finance its spending, the economy would expand by 9.0 percent during 2004, the State Information Center said in a report seen Friday.


With only 80 billion yuan in T-bonds, the economy would grow 8.0 percent, it said.

China's economy has been the world's fastest growing major economy over the last several years as the government has primed the pumps to stimulate domestic demand.

In the first half of 2003, the economy expanded by 8.2 percent, after growing by 9.9 percent in the first three months. Growth slowed to 6.7 percent in the second quarter as the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome took an economic toll.

The Chinese government began its pro-active fiscal policy in 1998 in an effort to ward off the Asian financial crisis and has continued its deficit spending ever-since.

Last year, the finance ministry issued 140 billion yuan in special notes, down from 150 billion yuan issued every year since the crisis.

According to the center, the size of the treasury bill package would impact all major economic indicators, most notably fixed asset investment, growth in money supply as well as retail sales.

China's exports were expected to expand by 12 percent with 80 billion yuan of pump priming, while they could soar 16.5 percent with 120 billion yuan, while imports would expand by 12.7 percent with the lower figure and 17.7 percent with the higher figure, it said.

For the first eight months of 2003, China's exports rose 32.5 percent to 265.79 billion dollars, while imports were up 40.6 percent at 256.9 billion dollars, official figures show.