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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (38863)	9/26/2003 4:57:29 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Elmat, <<Gold ... spectre of global inflation rearing its head again?>> I do not believe gold's value going forward has much to do with inflation, deflation, hedging, or for that matter, de-hedging, but everything to do with 'The END', as in the 'E' in TeoTwawKi ;0) We have entered a new era of gold. Throw away the old musty textbooks describing gold as a commodity, and the ancient dusty script that features gold as money, and learn to embrace the Force and love its magic. To feel it, be in tune with its natural rhythmic frequency, to tap it energy and guide its power. But first, perhaps a gold crash before all else. I just received a wise friend's e-mail, and I quote, "I'm just thinking aloud. The stock market crash in 1987 had a catalyst in James Baker's pronouncement over the weekend before the crash that the US would no longer support the dollar. At the time, the US was running ever-increasing budget deficits and current account deficits. Sound familiar? Does Treasury Secretary Snow realize what he's saying? Are we setting ourselves up for a repeat? Plenty of liquidity out there, but does an intentional devaluation of the US dollar scare them away at some point? Q: You did extraordinarily well during October 1987, a month which was a disaster for many other traders. Could you fill in some of the details? Tudor-Jones: The week of the crash was one of the most exciting periods of my life. We had been expecting a major stock market collapse since mid-1986 and had contingency plans drawn up because of the possibility we foresaw for a financial meltdown. When we came in on Monday, October 19, we knew that the market was going to crash that day. Q: What made you so sure? Tudor-Jones: Because the previous Friday was a record volume day on the downside. The exact same thing happened in 1929, two day before the crash. Our analog model to 1929 had the collapse perfectly nailed. [Paul Jones' analog model, developed by his research director, Peter Borish, super imposed the 1980s market over the 1920s market. The two markets demonstrated a remarkable degree of correlation. This model was a key tool in Jones' stock index trading during 1987]. Treasury Secretary Baker's weekend statement that the US would no longer support the dollar because of its disagreements with West Germany was the kiss of death for the markets. Any thoughts?" My mind is a blank, as is usually the case, and filled with foreboding sense of doom, paralyzed by fear, and yet, I am also excited, as would a magic mushroom fed chanting Aztec readying to move in to the financial slaughter space, for glory and loot. What is that I hear? “Brace, Brace!” Assume the crash position, but be ready to craw out of the soon to be broken troop carrier, weapons ready, fire at will :0) Chugs, Jay