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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (25963)	9/27/2003 2:05:26 PM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206199

Russ, the Winter show is about to start. My local temperatures are forecasted to be in the upper 30's at night for the next 10-12 days. Starting off the beginning of HDD 10 below normal is music to my ears. By now I am sure there is allot of smart money calculating the many variables impacting S / D this Winter, more so than previous Winters. One variable no one knows is what quantity of demand returns and at what price. The market is not letting the price drop much so understanding pending demand below $4.50 will have to wait. Oddly enough IMO the equities are pricing in every thing going against the longs. The only thing I fear at this point is a hot Winter, a stock market crash or OPEC deciding it wants to flood the market to gain market share. I am not sure they could flood it but the overt attempt and 1-2 mbpd more would be enough.

To: russwinter who wrote (25963)	9/27/2003 8:37:30 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206199

>>Sorry, nearly the highest commercial long positions in ng and crude oil in a decade. << how do we put this in context?? what has happened in the last three years to give this some meaning?? I'm going to admit first off -- I don't know what the significance is ... but let me suggest a few things that may / may not be relevant. We've had ENE leave the market -- we've had a three years with some pretty extreme prices on either end ... we've had a large amount of gas-fired electrical generation brought online in the last five years -- we've had everyone their uncle, including big AL say that the days of cheap NG are over. Probably all of us have seen charts depicting rig counts vs. production and trends in well "life." Who doesn't know the depletion story?? Locally, we have had our state PUC go on a road show warning folks concerning the higher NG prices they are "bound" to see this winter ... In the larger macro arena, as far as non-government economic activity goes -- we are entering the third year of a slowdown like no other in recent history. I've had a certain vocal poster tell me over and over again -- given his bullishness on NG, but bearishness on oil, that oil is GDP sensitive, NG isn't ... I've had some folks on the outskirts of the industry tell me that fertilizer producers have shut down marginal capacity because of NG prices staying firm ... Some have told me where I work that during the NG price spike last Feb/Mar that electric prices simply did not follow the rise in NG ... It is no secret that there is currently excess NG fired generation that is not being sold or liquidated, because either 1) banks don't want to admit the loss and/or 2) some merchants still believe the economy is turning around enough that the economy can grow into this excess generation and conditions of tightness in the elctric prices will return and bail them out. We keep hearing about additional investment in LNG terminals -- even big Al weighed in earlier to say that we needed more investment in LNG terminals. Very interesting backdrop for the commercials holding their largest net long position. Who are the commercials? Are they hedging?? If they are hedgers and full up -- what does that tell you?? Or are they "betting" or "speculating" on much higher prices ... What kinds of positions did they hold in the prior two spikes??