Dem lies about "health issues" have not worked....8 days to go.
Posted on Fri, Sep. 26, 2003
Poll: Many minorities back Prop. 54
RESULTS SURPRISE MEASURE'S FOES, WHO PREPARE TO LAUNCH AD CAMPAIGN
By Edwin Garcia
Mercury News
Next month's state ballot measure to prohibit the government's collection of race-based data -- which opponents claim would be detrimental to minorities -- shows surprisingly strong support from Latinos, Asian-Americans and blacks, according to a multiethnic poll released Thursday.
Opponents of Proposition 54 had expected that the state's growing non-white electorate would reject the measure.
The poll, commissioned by four education and non-profit organizations, found that 46 percent of Latinos, 42 percent of Asian-Americans and 41 percent of African-Americans support the proposition -- while just 31 percent of whites favor it. The measure is opposed by a third of Latinos, 40 percent of Asian-Americans, 33 percent of blacks and a quarter of whites.
``It's counter to what experts might have predicted,'' said pollster Sergio Bendixen. ``The case against Prop. 54 has not been made, and if Prop. 54 is going to be defeated, its opponents need to find a way to turn these ethnic minorities around.''
Multilingual survey
A total of 1,608 Californians responded to the poll, conducted in English, Spanish, Cantonese, Mandarin, Vietnamese and Korean.
Respondents also were questioned about the recall election: Latinos and Asian-Americans are split on whether to remove Gov. Gray Davis on Oct. 7, while blacks lean heavily against the recall.
Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, a Democrat seeking to replace Davis should the recall succeed, is supported by 57 percent of Latinos and 25 percent of Asian-Americans, but fewer than a quarter of whites support him.
Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger's support among minority voters ranges from 7 percent among blacks to 22 percent among Asians.
Proposition 54, written by University of California Regent Ward Connerly, would amend the California Constitution to prohibit any government agency or school from classifying people by race or ethnicity -- an effort he says is necessary to achieve a ``colorblind society.''
Opponents counter that a law banning racial statistics would make it impossible to track inequities in education and prevent health researchers from studying how diseases affect patients of different races.
Getting the word out
A recent Field Poll found that 40 percent of all voters surveyed supported the measure, 40 percent opposed it and 20 percent were undecided. That poll, issued earlier this month, revealed that support for the measure had eroded as more voters became aware of it.
``People don't know that much about what Proposition 54 would do,'' said Steve Montiel, director of the University of Southern California Annenberg Institute for Justice and Journalism, one of the groups involved in the poll. ``One of the reasons they don't is there's so much coverage, understandably, of the recall and replacement candidates.''
Opponents today plan to start a $2.6 million statewide television advertising campaign against Proposition 54.
Proposition 54 proponents and opponents agreed Thursday that more voters need to be educated about the measure, based on figures published in the poll.
``All of those numbers sound a little low to me,'' said Justin Jones of the ``Yes on 54'' campaign. The proposition is known as the Racial Privacy Initiative.
Elena Stern, a representative of the ``No on 54'' campaign, said the findings show ``we still have two weeks of a lot of hard work to engage in.''
She's confident that Proposition 54 will be rejected because other recent polls have shown its support slipping, and because proponents are not able to match the multimillion-dollar advertising effort against the measure by Bustamante's campaign for governor.
The poll also was commissioned by the Pew Hispanic Center, New California Media and the Tomás Rivera Policy Institute. Its margin of error ranged from plus or minus 4.1 percentage points for Hispanics, to plus or minus 6.3 percentage points for Asian-Americans.
From the non-partisan state analysis
The measure would ban state government from classifying people by race, ethnicity, color or national origin, except for medical research or to meet court decrees and federal requirements.
Proposition 54 applies specifically to race-related data in public education, contracting and hiring. It also would affect other state operations unless exempted by the governor and a two-thirds majority of the Legislature.
The initiative is being pushed by Connerly, a Sacramento businessman who led the successful 1996 campaign for Proposition 209, which banned racial preferences in state hiring, education and contracting.
Proposition 54 clearly would bar some racial statistics and permit others. But certain data do not fit squarely into either category, leaving judges or legislators to clarify whether it could be collected and how it could be used by state and local agencies, the analyst concluded.
Several examples were cited, including:
* Peace officers could continue to describe crime suspects by race, but it is unclear whether such data could be combined to analyze crime trends by race.
* The federal census could continue to gather racial information, but the extent to which state and local governments could use such data is unknown.
* State and local agencies apparently could continue to collect race-related health statistics through public surveys, the Legislative Analyst's Office said, but its analysts did not say whether the measure's "medical research" exemption would cover all or only some of the data currently collected.
Opponents claim that Proposition 54 would bar race-related data used to identify trends and design outreach programs. Birth and death certificates would be affected, as would the cancer registry, and hospital and laboratory reports, they contend.
Jay Ziegler, co-director of the anti-Proposition 54 campaign, said the analyst left major questions unanswered. Virtually every health-care expert in the state believes the measure "undermines tools necessary for solid health-care prevention," he said.
But Diane Schachterle, Connerly's campaign coordinator, said Proposition 54 is not meant to interfere with any health-related issue. The analysis supports that view, she said.
"Although it's not definitive, their best analysis is that, for all intents and purposes, medical data collection will continue," she said.
Statistics that could continue to be compiled if Proposition 54 passes include the racial composition of government job applicants and employees, and of students in public schools and colleges, the Legislative Analyst's Office said. The measure also would exempt data on individuals who receive food stamps or cash assistance, or who use public drug, alcohol or mental health services, the report said.
Statistics barred by Prohibition 54 relate to companies doing business with the state, failed applicants to the University of California and California State University, people taking state teacher credentialing exams, college students in the state's loan forgiveness program, teenagers in some UC outreach programs, and public school students taking various state education programs and tests.
Statistics of the Department of Fair Employment and Housing, which investigates discrimination complaints, would be exempt for 10 years. |
