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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Maurice Winn who wrote (115875)9/28/2003 8:33:58 PM
From: Bilow  Respond to of 281500
 
Hi Maurice Winn; Well I was glad to see the transcript again, and again, my impression on first reading it was somewhat changed: Before I thought Gillespie was basically a moron who wasn't even listening to what Saddam said. But it seems to me now that she did respond to some of the things he said, but without the firmness that was required. This was probably because Baker did not give her permission to say anything other than what she'd been given permission to say.

Her first reply to Saddam is probably where they got the belief that there was a green light:

"I thank you, Mr. President, and it is a great pleasure for a diplomat to meet and talk directly with the President. I clearly understand your message. We studied history at school. They taught us to say freedom or death. I think you know well that we as a people have our experience with the colonialists."

Nothing that she says speaks to anything that Saddam said. Saddam didn't talk about "colonialists", he talked about his relations with the US, Kuwait and the UAE. What she should have said is that "I will pass this message on to Washington".

In fact, Gillespie does admit that she was unprepared for the threats from Saddam, but then she fails to realize that her message of friendship could be interpreted as a "go" light for Iraq to solve its border issues with Kuwait:

"Mr. President, you mentioned many things during this meeting which I cannot comment on on behalf of my Government. But with your permission, I will comment on two points. You spoke of friendship and I believe it was clear from the letters sent by our President to you on the occasion of your National Day that he emphasizes -- "

In other words, she was sent with a simple message of friendship, so that is what she delivered. She doesn't seem to have realized that he was talking about war, even though he went on and on about "rivers of blood" and "10,000 deaths", and all that. Maybe she thought that the Arabs always talk in metaphors, but that what they really translate to mean peace and warm cookies.

"GLASPIE: I have a direct instruction from the President to seek better relations with Iraq."

Here she is, trying valiantly, tape recorder-like, to deliver her simple message of peace and friendship.

She continues following her simple instructions, which very clearly were NOT to green-light an invasion of Iraq:

"But you, Mr. President, have fought through a horrific and painful war. Frankly, we can only see that you have deployed massive troops in the south. Normally that would not be any of our business. But when this happens in the context of what you said on your national day, then when we read the details in the two letters of the Foreign Minister, then when we see the Iraqi point of view that the measures taken by the U.A.E. and Kuwait is, in the final analysis, parallel to military aggression against Iraq, then it would be reasonable for me to be concerned. And for this reason, I received an instruction to ask you, in the spirit of friendship - not in the spirit of confrontation - regarding your intentions."

And finally, Hussein gives no real clue to his intentions:

"HUSSEIN: Brother President Mubarak told me they were scared. They said troops were only 20 kilometers north of the Arab League line. I said to him that regardless of what is there, whether they are police, border guards or army, and regardless of how many are there, and what they are doing, assure the Kuwaitis and give them our word that we are not going to do anything until we meet with them. When we meet and when we see that there is hope, then nothing will happen. But if we are unable to find a solution, then it will be natural that Iraq will not accept death, even though wisdom is above everything else. There you have good news."
psych.upenn.edu

In short, there was no green light, even according to the transcript published by the Iraqis, except in their own minds. In retrospect, our ambassador should have made it clear that we stomp on nations that invade nations that are our friends, and she did not do that. Instead, she was sent by people who thought the whole thing was going to blow over and who simply wanted Iraq to remain on our list of buddies. Note that this was after Saddam had gassed his Kurds, but that is standard diplomacy.

My take on it is that Saddam pretty much misinterpreted a simple diplomatic message from the US that did not take into account the possibility of a real war.

-- Carl