Stubborn senator helps Bustamante
IN THE GOP: MCCLINTOCK SIPHONS POTENTIAL VOTES FROM SCHWARZENEGGER
By Howard Mintz and Mike Zapler
Mercury News
Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante and Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock are in different political worlds. They don't agree on much of anything, from taxes and abortion rights, to immigration and state spending.
But as Bustamante heads into the final days of the Oct. 7 recall campaign, McClintock -- an arch-conservative whose party has turned its back on him -- has become his most unlikely and critical political ally.
The reason is simple math. Running neck and neck with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bustamante needs McClintock to siphon votes from the actor.
But even as Bustamante worries about whether the candidate to his political right will stay in, he has to defend his other flank and make sure he doesn't lose too many votes on the left to Green Party candidate Peter Camejo and independent Arianna Huffington.
``It's much less obvious than the McClintock factor,'' said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. But ``it has the potential to swing the election.''
Yet McClintock's potential to play spoiler is greater. The latest Field Poll had Bustamante in a five-point lead over Schwarzenegger, 30 to 25 percent, with McClintock at 13 percent. But the poll found Schwarzenegger pulls ahead of Bustamante if McClintock leaves the race.
So Bustamante is playing nice, laying off McClintock in this week's debate, complimenting him in public while accusing Schwarzenegger of living on ``Planet Hollywood,'' even though he has more in common politically with the actor than he does with the Republican state senator.
On Saturday, Bustamante publicly applauded McClintock's tenacity and said the state senator was the only one with momentum in the race.
``He's left him alone, as well he should,'' Democratic consultant Gale Kaufman said of Bustamante's treatment of McClintock. ``As long as he stays in the race, it helps Cruz Bustamante.''
California Democratic Party chairman Art Torres, who in recent public appearances has also praised McClintock, agrees with the strategy: ``When you have a potential to be elected governor with a small percentage of the vote, it makes sense.''
Republicans, who have amplified efforts to persuade McClintock to step aside, are worried that Bustamante might win because of their divisions. They're also troubled by another strange element of the political dynamic: Bustamante's key backers -- Indian tribes with casino interests -- have also helped finance McClintock's campaign, fueling Republican concerns that the tribes are helping keep McClintock afloat to defeat Schwarzenegger and elect the lieutenant governor.
``It's an alliance of convenience,'' Schwarzenegger spokesman Sean Walsh said of Bustamante and McClintock. ``I think we can win with Tom in. But it would certainly be a lot easier to win when you have only one person'' from the Republican Party.
The tribes have spent millions of dollars supporting both candidacies, including large new donations revealed Friday. Both Bustamante and McClintock have long promoted more rights for the tribes and say that's the reason behind the support.
Bustamante has avoided any direct combat with the conservative McClintock during a campaign in which he has positioned himself as more liberal than ever, stressing his Latino roots, his fight for immigrants and his plans to increase taxes as a large part of his proposed budget fix.
Richie Ross, Bustamante's campaign consultant, downplays the issue, praising McClintock for staying in the race and laughing off questions about how things might be different in a Bustamante vs. McClintock contest.
``I don't know if you want to call him Cruz's best friend or Arnold's worst enemy,'' Ross said of McClintock. ``I think he's an imponderable.''
For his part, McClintock doesn't view himself as a spoiler. In fact, his campaign suggests that it is McClintock who will benefit from a Bustamante-Schwarzenegger battle.
``If we're in the race, hovering just below them, and they shoot Arnold, where do Arnold's voters go?'' said John Stoos, McClintock's deputy campaign manager. ``They don't go to Cruz.''
Republican consultants and party officials say Schwarzenegger will still beat Bustamante, even with McClintock in the race. Among other things, they say endorsements this week from party leaders and conservatives, such as Bill Simon, will draw many of McClintock's backers to the actor. In addition, Republicans say Bustamante has a problem of his own -- though he needs as many Democrats and independents as possible to win, the lieutenant governor could lose critical votes to Huffington and Camejo.
``I'd be willing to bet that Camejo and Huffington combined take as many votes away from Bustamante as McClintock draws from Schwarzenegger,'' said Republican political consultant Dan Schnur, who advised Peter Ueberroth before he withdrew.
Recent polls had Huffington and Camejo with about 5 percent of the vote combined. And the most recent Field Poll suggests Bustamante is the second choice of almost every Camejo backer and most Huffington supporters.
But, like McClintock, Huffington, who has aggressively attacked Bustamante, and Camejo both have said they have no plans to exit the race. Huffington's campaign believes she draws as many votes from Schwarzenegger, another chief target of her barbs, as from Bustamante.
Camejo, meanwhile, sounds a bit like McClintock on the subject of playing spoiler.
``People should be allowed to vote their heart,'' he said. ``I respect the voters. Some say, `I don't care, I'm going to vote Green because I want to send a message.' Others say, `I want to stop Arnold, so I'm going to vote Bustamante.' And to those people, I say, `I respect you, I understand.' ''
The Bustamante campaign, which plans to remain focused on the Democratic base this week and air television ads featuring the lieutenant governor with his family, insists Huffington and Camejo aren't particular problems.
``It's always a concern, it's always a factor,'' Ross said of losing votes to candidates like Camejo. ``But there are several things in our control and many, many things that are not. I don't worry about those things not in our control.'' |
