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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (11894)	9/29/2003 12:26:57 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95515

Actually, no, I don't think there is going to be a negative view of GDP or 3rd qtr earnings. That is, at least not until after the fact. However, there will be plenty of spin being laid down before the actual numbers come out and we've seen a lot of it lately. First, the main strongly negative item I see at this time, while looking at the big picture, is the constantly high energy prices taking their toll on the US and the world. Imo, this is the single largest reason why our economy hasn't shown more improvement over the past few months. The Bush administration has no reason to jaw down energy prices or work behind the scenes to get OPEC to lower prices since they ( and their friends ) come from the oil patch and they've been waiting for years for this. Unfortunately, everyone else gets left holding the bag. (Keep in mind when you read this that I'm not making this a political commentary but...) I simply see it as a fact that oil/gas prices are probably about 20% to 40% higher then they should be, which basically amounts to a high tax on almost every individual and business, as well as most commodities. While the previous administration did plenty of harm to the oil patch during their tenure, I think we are almost getting an "in your face" reversal of fortunes by the current administration and it's a shame because I see it doing much more harm then good. As for the positives, I think the US is doing pretty damn good at this point in time, all things considered. We have a very tough road ahead but when hasn't this been the case? On the tech specific front, I think the wireless trends are in their infancy and this is (and will continue to be) a revolutionary change. However, like the telephone or radio, it will take decades to evolve and the "tech" world seen by our children's children will be unlike most here can imagine. But I digress...vbg. I think we will continue to see "cautious" guidance, especially in the SCE sector, which is only one of the reasons why I think we are selling off in advance of earnings season. I do think we had gone too far, too fast on the SOX--but not to the point where we need more then a 20% or less correction. Keep an eye on the long term big picture. Flat panel TVs and monitors are still on the pricey side and the prices of these will start to come down, albeit slower then we consumers would like to see. While some can do with the old technology in cell phones, I think we are continuing to see very strong demand for new phones and I would doubt this trend is going to change in the immediate future. The PC cycle is reaching it's end, as those who bought in 1999 and 2000 are starting look for new machines and new features. The proliferation of chips in autos is substantially on the rise and this will also be the case in many other "non-traditional" electrical devices. ID chips, similar to bar-codes, are going to be all the rage very soon, within a few years, as this will help even the smallest businesses with inventory tracking and sales issues. The desire for ever increasing broadband speed is also going to continue to be a very hot item and the longer the RBOCs and Cable companies can stall the buildout, the higher the "water level rises behind the dam". Better software, business applications, and plenty of other new innovative ideas are on tap for us here in the near future. Not to mention the amount of chips, computers and "high tech" gear needed for the medical profession. This is why we need to weed out the poorly performing companies and focus on the under valued or under appreciated stocks. This is where Don's tables, Gottfried's charts, RtS-Brian-and-Stan's news posts and everyone's 2 cents posted here give us a lot of things to look at to help us in our quest of making heads or tails of the market. Sarmad, one should keep in mind that even if earnings are good, GDP is solid and all the stars align properly on the corporate front, we might still see the market struggle during the last quarter. Especially the NASDAQ. Gains are gains and they beg for people to take profits. For some, it's been a tough 2 or 3 years and locking in profits earned during this year's run might become too strong of a temptation.