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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (29093)	9/29/2003 12:54:11 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 89467

With October 1st being Wednesday, the last quarter of 2003 is almost here. Soon a fractious election year will be upon us. In politics, perception dominates reality. The market is greatly elevated from its March low. While “number massage” is suspected, the GDP is up. Many are predicting these trends to continue. reuters.com True, jobs are still a problem, but as all know this “is a lagging indicator”. Given recent staggering loses in jobs, if the hemorrhaging can just be stanched, this can be spun positively. With the Fed continuing to float the economy on a sea of liquidity, any downside pressure will be fighting the printing press. There is reason to believe that one year from now, the economy can be perceived as “getting better” – especially with “many millions” of dollars being spent to spread that perception. Iraq may be a tougher sell. But news is about change. If the level of insurgency remains about constant, that will no longer be news. Sure the death toll and causality numbers will continue to rise, but in the news biz, that may take a “second seat” to the highly touted new constitution, and the upcoming Iraqi election – carefully scheduled to be a little after the US election. That way you can talk about the Iraqi election, but not have to deal with any consequences. Hence, by a year from now, although Iraq may still be perceived as an error by the left, the far less politically motivated middle, may think of it as no more than a problem that has been solved. Given the above Rosie Scenario twins, GWB could ride his well funded schooner to victory in the presidential yacht race. But it’s also possible to pick holes in both of the scenarios. In which case, GWB’s reelection would become more problematical. Since no one can predict the future, contingency plans are formulated. Some plans require time to implement, so some “groundwork” must be laid for them to remain viable. With this in mind, the dim outlines of Rove’s Plan B are becoming visible. Plan B involves foreign affairs, since this is still perceived as the Repub’s “strong suit”. North Korea is to be finessed. Hang tough, but let China et al deal with Kim Jong Il. That way GWB keeps his conservative base, but can’t be blamed if an attack, with huge loss of life, occurs. The ME is a different story. Both Iran and Syria are possible targets. Iran is unlikely to be invaded. The size and ruggedness of the country are beyond the already overtaxed US military. Moreover, this is a real country with a very long history – not some lines drawn on a map less than a century ago. No, an invasion of Iran is “not in the cards". But a “surgical strike” to “take out” the nuclear power plants, may well be part of Plan B. Then there is Syria. I expect the rhetoric against Syria to be “heated up”. If Syria caves, great. It will be touted as a huge victory. If Syria resists, and GWB’s election is in doubt, an invasion is also part of Plan B. Already Chalabi-like opposition “leaders” are being paraded in front of conservative think tank sponsored “conferences” - as a kind of tryout for who will receive American sponsorship to head a “Syrian Governing Council”. Even though the US forces are overextended, a joint US-Turkish-Israeli attack would make “quick work” of Syria. This time, we could have a Mediterranean “Mission Accomplished” carrier strut – perhaps the week before the election. Anyone who doesn’t wear a flag on their lapel, and vote for GWB, is a traitor. JMO lurqer