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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (11927)	9/30/2003 6:15:05 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95385

Boxmakers . . . Recent Hewlett-Packard checks indicate a sense of cautious optimism internally that execution is improving, and demand trends are stable to slightly better in the aggregate. The data points give us an extremely high confidence level in our October quarter estimates. I spoke to someone, not at HP, but in the semiconductor industry who is fairly high up but hopefully not an insider... We talked a bit about the market and how it seems orders are picking up and prices of stocks are going up. He said orders ARE coming back, some have been delayed but are still there. Caution is because they were so badly burned in 2001 from a false start that he thinks most are just overly cautious and would rather be stuck short of capacity than have too much once again. IF this is true, THEN this would mean there is a huge backlog of orders to come crushing in. I think Gotfried's charts semi orders rising while cap spending is still flat really shows this. I also think this explains why the stocks are going up. Finally, This is a different person, but I know this insider Bill Sullivan and he is very cautious... finance.yahoo.com He warned me against buying my AMAT (too risky) near the bottom in 1995 (glad I ignored his advice) yet I see he is now buying Agilent stock from his own money at a decent percentage of his annual salary. $106K on 10Sept03 My thoughts were the management was "asking" their management to buy the stock, but I don't see any other high level folks like the CFO or VPs buying with their own money... Bill had the semiconductor part of Agilent... before his recent promotion to COO. He is one of the people at Agilent that helped me learn to evaluate companies, projects, etc. for value and return and he is a good guy.