Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (262457)	10/2/2003 12:26:43 PM
From: dvdw©	Respond to of 436258

LOL eom

To: orkrious who wrote (262457)	10/2/2003 1:16:16 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Date: Thu Oct 02 2003 12:53 trotsky (Apollo@SM) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved yeah, sure, where have i heard that before? : ) note that i remain firmly in the LT bear camp - i agree that the current rally is likely the last gasp. but it's not over until it's over - and imo in order for the rally to decisively end, the bears must capitulate. they refuse to do so to date. no question that the long term prospects remain extraordinarily bleak, and bulls must be very careful. e.g. mutual fund cash-to-asset ratios remain near an all time low...WS equity allocations remain near an all time high, and the polls have just had one of their longest strings of skewed bullishness on record. but the fact remains that people are WAY too bearish in the short term. one example: YHOO. it trades close to a new 2 year high - you'd think people must be bullish on the stock, right? wrong. short interest has risen by 28% over the past month alone, to a new record high. out of 13 analysts, only 5 rate it a 'buy'. put/call open interst stands at about 1.15, close to a 52 week high ( 115 puts open for every 100 calls ) . ( info from Schaefferresearch ) . yesterday's put/call volume ratio on the stock was 1.72, while the stock actually closed UP. it looks roughly similar to the situation in most market leader stocks - and all those bearish bets will imo continue to be unwound before a top of significance is put in. Date: Thu Oct 02 2003 12:36 trotsky (mugwump@dollar) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved sure enough, Japan's experience also exposes the fallacy that a weak currency would stop deflation. recall that the Yen fell from 80:1 to the dollar to 150:1 , a decline of nearly 50%, between '95 and '98. and yet, deflation continued apace. also, looking at this in a US-centric way isn't helpful either - the deflation is going global. thus, CBs all over the world are going to keep printing truck-loads of money - a race to the bottom. whichever currency is temporarily weaker than its competitors will probably dampen deflationary effects in its country of orgin for a while, but it won't eradicate them imo.

To: orkrious who wrote (262457)	10/2/2003 5:02:36 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

When the sun shineth, make hay From Scott Reamer - Minyanville Apologies for my lack of writing recently. As the above quote suggests, I have been busy (very very busy) getting ready to make some hay, as my working thesis is that this bounce will fail sooner rather than later and I want to have my seat identified, labeled, and close at hand when the music stops. You know where I stand on the consumer sector generally and the retail space specifically (and much of the data – macroeconomic and microeconomic – continue to support that thesis) so I need not reiterate my highly bearish stance on those names. Just know that, for me at least, this feels like one of the best areas of opportunity on the short side all year. You already know this isn't a site that dispenses advice, but I thought it only fair to let readers know I am planning on taking action soon on the bearish thesis I have laid out. As always I could be wrong, as I was in late summer. Stay glued to your screens over the next few days.