Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : TheStreet.com, Inc. (TSCM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bob wallace who wrote (1549)	10/3/2003 5:30:52 PM
From: Jack Hartmann	Respond to of 1822

Cramer gets humble Humility and the Jobs Report By James J. Cramer 10/03/2003 02:54 PM EDT URL: thestreet.com Market Commentary You can't let personal anecdotes color your perception. You can't game mutual fund flows. Everything in this business is a succession of measured clues coupled with emotions and history. Anatomy-of-a-bad-call time. It is not enough to say, "The stock told me the wrong thing." Nor is it enough to rationalize and say, "Hey, we all get some wrong." Just like when I was at my hedge fund, I have spent the day thinking about what I did wrong on this employment-number call. It was just too easy to dovetail the mutual fund-selling angle I had with the anecdotal job loss I know about and come up with a thesis that said a better entry point awaited. Now it looks like we won't get it, but I wanted to share with you the breakdown of the missed call, if only to make sure that you know that not only am I not rationalizing -- the employment number wasn't as good as you think -- and to remind you that you have to learn from your mistakes. First, I let the personal color my perception. I know plenty of people now who can't find a job, many more than last year. I also can read the headlines like everyone else and I get plenty of email that confirms this weakness. I did share with you that I thought Silicon Valley was getting better, but I was deluged with email saying that's wrong. Second, I tried to game something that was not that gameable: mutual fund flows. I knew that many funds like to take their gains in the September-October period. What I failed to think about is what happens if they had taken them all by October. Can't game the ungameable. Third, I tried to thread things too closely. I figured that we would have a leg down after the big leg up because, well, that's what we have had for three years. But this is a better market than that. I knew from the exquisite moment that we had morphed out of bear market territory into something bullish, so I should have bet that the downturn just ended was the downturn before we get to Dow 10,000, which, increasingly, is what it looks like. Fourth, the bond market was just so darn wrong again. I have to tell you, whoever is making big bets in the bond market, you almost have to be contrarian about. That was a terrible bet to go long bonds ahead of the number. Everything in this business is a succession of measured clues coupled with emotions and history, a weird, on-the-fly odds game that must be recalculated constantly. In the end, though, it is also hugely humbling even when you think you are reading the clues right. I have been humbled. *********** Easy to eat crow on missing an up move than going long at the wrong time. And Cooper is posting again, Bob. Good read. Jack

To: bob wallace who wrote (1549)	10/5/2003 10:43:27 PM
From: Chris McConnel	Respond to of 1822

From Fleck's Website: I began writing my daily column on the Internet in 1996. Initially, the Market Rap was a daily recap of market events, with an added "Yes, but..." emphasis. I quickly learned that the contrarian viewpoint was often misrepresented and under-reported. Since then, my daily column has always called it like I see it. I've tried to write the column in a way that even the novice investor can understand. I believe it's better to teach someone how to fish, rather than just give them an occasional fish. "When you subscribe to FleckensteinCapital.com, you get my daily column, full access to the Archives (in process), an "Ask Fleck" Q&A section, and any other resources I may post. You can still view my free weekly MSN column, a less-detailed summation of the topics covered in my daily rap. The MSN column is posted every Sunday night. — Bill Fleckenstein fleckensteincapital.com