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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trumptown who wrote (66405)	10/3/2003 10:45:59 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I have never seen gaps in the DOW of more than 100 points like today. It never leaves gaps. So I was kind of surprised on Sept., 22, when that gap down never got closed... Until today. I think we tank, and quickly from here. I'm not placing my bets on it until lower.

To: Trumptown who wrote (66405)	10/3/2003 11:49:14 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I looked before going short..and here's what you'll find if you really look.. Last year..we were in a down trend from March..OCT was the low, ( I was buying hand over fist when the crowd was selling )..there is no way to compare that OCT with this one..this year is not coming off a 3 year low. And the VIX is not some 55 + ---- Then lets look at 1999, that was a nice bull market.. early in OCT the NDX was 2404.45 and she ramped until OCT 11th.. But by OCT 19th she had dropped to 2362.11 While she went back up there was a pull back during OCT.. And those poor souls who bought taht pull back are still down 42% 3 yrs later ---- We may ramp for a week or two..even into expiration but I'm betting we pull back to QQQ 30..if not this month then early next month.. The higher we go from here the harder we fall. I closed my QQQ shorts, BUT I'm rolling into put's and I will roll up with the market I don't care how high she goes..when she drops I'll be waiting, with put's in my hand. ---- After I'm in an option, if the market moves against me and I decide to hang on; I do not average them down ( puts or calls ) I keep rolling them..the out of money drops slower than the at the money so with each roll my position improves faster than my cost. ---- But any way OCT is not a good month, and the exceptions are mostly only when AUG and SEPT were real bad.., & that's not the case right now. Jim