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To: russwinter who wrote (1240)	10/3/2003 6:23:06 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

What is "professional business service jobs"? Establishment Survey – The 57,000 increase in payroll employment in September is the first monthly gain since January. Construction jobs rose 14,000 during September, after a gain of 19,000 in August. Manufacturing employment fell 29,000 in September, the smallest monthly drop since July 2002. The employment index of the manufacturing ISM survey shows an increase in the third quarter (45.9 in Q3 vs. 43.5 in Q2). This index (lagged one quarter) has a strong positive relationship with manufacturing payroll changes. The behavior of this index should offer early hints about employment in factories. The 0.2% increase in the manufacturing man-hours index reflecting the longer workweek (40.4 hours vs. 40.2 hours in August, overtime rose to 4.2 hours from 4.0 hours) and extended over time hours bode positively for future employment in the factory sector. The gain in the index of manufacturing man-hours index, the first since March 2002, suggests an increase in industrial production during September. From other details of the employment report, retail jobs increased 10,000, professional business service jobs rose 66,000, employment in the finance, insurance, and real estate sector advanced 10,000, and government jobs fell 15,000. The total man-hours index held steady in September vs. a 0.3% increase in the previous month. Hourly earnings fell 0.1% in September to $15.45, taking the year-to-year increase to 2.7%. The drop in earnings and the increase in employment are predicted to have offset each other to yield a steady reading for wage and salary income in September. Conclusion – The pickup in payroll employment, the longer workweek and overtime hours in the factory sector, and a steady unemployment rate are signs of improving conditions in the labor market. Additional evidence of this nature is necessary to tone down the FOMC’s concern about the labor market. The Fed is expected to stand pat at the October 28 meeting. northerntrust.com