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Gold/Mining/Energy : Petrokazakhstan Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Kelly who wrote (2320)	10/3/2003 9:21:01 PM
From: forecaster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2357

Ah, you are too uptight, Tom. It's Friday, just lean back, relax and forget about Razor's shortcomings: An INTERFAX reporter was interviewing Neil Armstrong for an upcoming anniversary of his being the first man to walk upon the moon. Mr. Armstrong made an astonishing revelation: "I didn't actually say 'That's one step for man, one giant leap for mankind;' NASA wanted me to say that, so they dubbed it in. What I really said was, 'This one's for you, Mr. Goldstein!' " The incredulous reporter asked for an explanation. "Well, you see, when I was a kid we lived in an apartment. Our upstairs neighbors, Mr. and Mrs. Goldstein, had their bedroom right above mine. Often at night I'd hear Mrs. Goldstein say, 'I'll put that filthy thing in my mouth the day a man walks on the moon!!' " Forecaster P.S. I don't know what appeared in Russian newspapers.

To: Thomas Kelly who wrote (2320)	10/5/2003 11:57:47 AM
From: forecaster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2357

Tom: To pick my stocks, I analyze. Here goes: CLOSING PRICE ON FRIDAY, OCT.3: US$19.60 # OF BASIC SHARES (TSX STATS) : 77,728,313 ------------------------------------------------------------ QUOTED MARKET VALUE: US$ 1,523,000,000 What I would like to find out is how the market values the oil in the ground. Obviously, the above quoted market value includes many other assets whose value we can roughly approximate. We will probably differ in both the completeness and values of these approximations, so this may be viewed as a start: Refinery: US$300 M KAM Pipeline: 100 M Buildings, Equipment, Gas Stations, Loading Docks, etc.: 100 M Druzhba Terminal: 50 M Roads: 37 M Power Plant: 30 M Goodwill with Papa, 6 years: 6 M ------------------------------------------------------------ OTHER THAN OIL ASSETS: US$ 623 M This is higher, as it should be, than their book value. But not much, which indicates that the list is understandably incomplete. Subtracting yields the market value of the oil in the ground of some US$ 900 M. Now, we can calculate the value that the imperfect market attaches to gradually less certain categories of PKN oil reserves: Proved and probable: 518M barrels, US$1.74/barrel Above+possible : 745M barrels, US$1.21 Above+ EOR : 915M barrels, US$0.98 Above+ potential :1,565M barrels, US$0.58 The market values the highest category at roughly the PKN finding costs. All the lower categories are valued way below the finding costs. IMHO, the oil in the ground is valued at about 1/4 of its real value and it is only a matter of time before one, or more of the oil giants move. Forecaster