nytimes.com
Governor Davis Is Struggling to Hold His Base
By JOHN M. BRODER and MIREYA NAVARRO
OS ANGELES, Oct. 4 — It is not hard to find the reason that Gov. Gray Davis is in such trouble.
Recent polls and a string of interviews support the perception that Democrats who might be expected to reject the recall and support Mr. Davis are deserting him in droves and that Mr. Davis is in serious jeopardy of losing his job on Tuesday. Nothing the governor has said or done in the frantic final weeks of the campaign seems to be bringing his base vote home.
Scott Anderson, a unionized electrician from Venice Beach, said he was furious at Mr. Davis and at the leadership of his union, which is spending heavily to oppose the recall.
"Gray Davis and the rest of his people in the tower of corruption are destroying this state," said Mr. Anderson, 33. "He needs to be recalled."
Kenitra Thompson, a 23-year-old African-American nursing student at Southwest Los Angeles Community College, said she had not decided how to vote on the recall. "I don't know yet," she said, shaking her head slowly. "He's behind all the budget cuts at this school."
Sidney Crosby, 31, a student in education at the same school in the heart of south-central Los Angeles, showed up at an antirecall rally there two weeks ago led by Mr. Davis and the Rev. Jesse Jackson. He walked away unmoved.
"With Davis coming to the campus now," Mr. Crosby said, "it makes you wonder where he's been before this."
Even those Democrats who say they plan to vote against the recall have little good to say about Governor Davis, whom they see as a piñata for an aggrieved electorate.
"Basic things have gone wrong in California," said Whitney Skillcorn, 28, a musician who lives in San Francisco. "Our power crisis was not handled to benefit consumers; education needs revitalization. People are absolutely fed up. They want change and they want change now."
California is one of the most Democratic states in the nation, preferring Al Gore to George W. Bush in 2000 by a million-vote margin. The party enjoys a 10-point advantage over Republicans in voter registration and the state is home to millions of members of core Democratic constituency groups — labor, environmentalists, blacks, Latinos. All Mr. Davis needs to survive is for these groups to mobilize and vote no on the recall on Tuesday.
Yet he has so far been unable to make his case, despite appearances by major party figures like Bill Clinton and the signing of a number of bills designed to appease and energize the party's core.
"The governor has never done the job he should have maintaining his base," said Phil Trounstine, director of the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State University and a former senior aide to Mr. Davis. "He hasn't spent the time in the union halls and at the environmental dinners and in the black churches and in the Latino community that he should have. That makes it difficult for him when he needs that base to turn out for him."
Two statewide polls this week showed that nearly 30 percent of likely Democratic voters planned to vote for the recall, even though that would probably result in the election of an untested Republican, Arnold Schwarzenegger. Even 20 percent of self-identified liberals said they intended to vote to remove Mr. Davis from office on Tuesday, 11 months after he was elected to a second four-year term, the polls found. In 2002, Mr. Davis won 80 percent of Democratic votes. In 1998, 9 out of 10 Democrats supported him.
Tracy Schmidt, a consultant for nonprofit groups in San Francisco, is among those Democrats disenchanted with Mr. Davis. She said she planned to vote against the recall, more from fear of the consequences of its passage than from loyalty to Mr. Davis.
She said the governor had squandered the support of his constituency because after taking office he insulated himself and lost touch with voters.
"He didn't watch his back," said Ms. Schmidt, 36. "He focused on political insiders and the capitol rather than keeping touch with his base. He did not consider the political machine of the conservative Republicans. There is an old saying: Keep your friends close and keep your enemies closer. I don't think he did either."
Ms. Schmidt said she hoped the revelations of the past few days about Mr. Schwarzenegger's behavior toward women and his reported comments as a young man about Hitler would inspire more Democrats to forget, at least for a day, their misgivings about Mr. Davis.
"I think it will bring out more voters," she said. "I hope that Davis will win, but I fear Schwarzenegger will win or it will be too close to call."
That prospect does not frighten Joyce Allen, a 48-year-old Democrat having breakfast at Junior's Delicatessen in Westwood on Friday. She said she was planning to vote for Mr. Schwarzenegger and dismissed reports of his groping women and praising Hitler.
"I don't think a lot of it is true," Ms. Allen said. "I can't imagine he'd be an admirer of Hitler."
Democratic disaffection with Mr. Davis is particularly strong among union members and Latinos, some evidence shows. Art Pulaski, leader of the state's largest labor group, the 2.1-million-member California Labor Federation, A.F.L.-C.I.O., said that as of Friday internal polls showed that up to 40 percent of his members were planning to vote for the recall. He said he thought Mr. Davis could survive if that number could be reduced to 35 percent.
"There's no question this is an uphill battle," Mr. Pulaski said. "Our members are subject to the same concerns and frustrations as the rest of the public — the downturn of the economy, the potential of joblessness, fear of terrorism." It added up to a search for scapegoats and a desire for change, he said.
His labor group is spending $5 million to try to stop the recall. This week it sent out more than 500,000 pieces of mail, and it has hundreds of people working phone banks to try to persuade members to oppose the recall. The federation has also sent dozens of members out to ring doorbells to plead the case.
Ana Diaz, a member of the Hotel Employees and Restaurant Employees International Union, went door to door in a Hispanic neighborhood just west of downtown Los Angeles one evening this week. She and her partner knocked on the door of Jaime Estrada, 39, a stock supervisor at a Gap store.
He was unswayed by their argument that Mr. Davis had expanded a state health care program for children and signed a bill allowing illegal immigrants to get driver's licenses.
"I'd like a change in the government," he told the women.
Out of earshot of the precinct walkers he said: "I understand little about politics but I rely on the facts, and one of the things I've heard and read is that he doesn't know how to govern and we are the ones left paying taxes. One way or another, he has to respond for that."
Mr. Davis has damaged himself with his admittedly tardy responses to the state's energy and budget crises. But this week he was hurt by an accident of the calendar. On Wednesday, vehicle license fees tripled as part of a budget-balancing deal signed in July.
Ms. Diaz heard plenty of complaints about that this week.
"Throw him out," said Rafael Salmeron, 54, a welder fretting over seeing his $46 license plate fee rise to almost $150. "I don't know if it's his fault, but car plates tripled and the price of gasoline is up, too."
In many ways, Mr. Davis found himself in an impossible position when the recall question qualified for the ballot. His approval rating was in the low 20's and he had to find money and votes somewhere. He took a turn to the left to try to shore up support among Democratic interests, signing the driver's license bill, approving legislation to expand the rights of gay domestic partners and indicating he would sign the most expansive employer-mandated health insurance plan in the nation.
Those moves ensured millions of dollars in donations from unions, interest groups and wealthy liberals. But they turned off some moderates and independents, who are a substantial slice of the California electorate but who have no organized group to lobby the governor — or to write checks to his campaign committee.
"A lot of Democrats I talk to are voting for the recall as an opportunity to protest the movement to the left within their party," said Joseph E. Canciamilla, one of a handful of Democratic moderates in the state Assembly. "Ultimately when you move to the extreme you're going to lose many in the middle."
He added, "I'm not afraid of working with Arnold."
The two groups that appear most united behind Mr. Davis are environmentalists and gays. Leaders of the state's major conservation groups all expressed unqualified support for the governor, who has signed most environmental bills that have crossed his desk. The League of Conservation Voters is planning to contact 100,000 households in the final days before the election to urge a no vote on the recall.
"It's got to be close to unanimous in the environmental community," said Rico Mastrodonato, acting executive director of the league. "I don't know a single reasonable soul who is supporting the recall at this point."
Bob Hattoy, a gay activist and former Clinton administration official, said many of his gay friends were upset with the condition of the state and eager for a change. But he tells them that electing Mr. Schwarzenegger is not the answer.
"There are times I've been annoyed with the governor, times I've been angry with the governor," Mr. Hattoy said. "But this is not about me anymore. It affects lives, jobs, futures."
He added: "I tell people, `If you're angry, see a therapist. But don't vote for the recall and Arnold Schwarzenegger. It's self-destructive."' |
