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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: energyplay who wrote (26140)10/5/2003 8:57:13 AM
From: quehubo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206265
 
It will be four years for me in Q1. I have learned that sentiment can change very quickly.

What I wonder is what will happen when storage is sitting at 3,200 bcf here in a few weeks and then there still is an extra 3-4 bcfpd of NG available?

Not forcing prices high enough to force switching to #2 oil may be worth 1.5 bcfpd this Winter compared to the last. This will be relatively painless to the market.

But at what price do NGL's get rejected?

At what price does some industrial demand return?

I think the present futures price strip is good for a normal Winter and storage ending at ~1,100 bcf.

With the present supply demand balance it seems only depletion or increased demand (weather/economic) will force RIG counts higher.



To: energyplay who wrote (26140)10/5/2003 10:35:39 AM
From: jim_p  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206265
 
ep,

I feel the same way you do about where we are with NG. Why take a risk on cold weather when if your patient you can wait for another RRI or the winter of 2000 to invest???

I made over 1000% in 2000 betting the farm with margin on the "perfect storm", but I don't think the risk reward is there today.

Jim