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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (11961)	10/5/2003 11:40:13 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95515

Alastair and all, >Statisticians at the Labor Department said they expect to revise down U.S. payroll employment by about 145,000 for the March 2003 reference month -- effectively showing even greater weakness in the sluggish labor market than previously thought.< Yes, but it makes forward comparison easier. Gottfried

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (11961)	10/5/2003 12:07:24 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 95515

>> Data Revision Confirms Weak Jobs Picture Alastair, There is a non-negative way to view this data. Which is that the US economy is running at a GDP-increase rate of 4% or higher, even with the supposedly weak jobs data. So when the jobs finally increase, the GDP growth rate will go up more than anyone had expected. I think if the stock-buying public wishes to find an excuse for buying, this data will exactly fit the purpose. The only way this non-news is negative, will be if GDP (or productivity figures, or aggregate income stats) are revised downwards. Just imagine, housing construction is at all-time high. And if now you tell me half the people are out of work, just imagine what housing will do when these newly discovered people find work and get incomes. Sarmad

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (11961)	10/5/2003 7:12:00 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95515

Semiconductors . . . ATI Technologies reported fiscal fourth quarter net income of $22.3 million, or 9 cents a share, vs. a loss of 15 cents a share in the year-earlier period. Excluding non-recurring items, earnings were 12 cents a share, above the average analyst forecast of 10 cents. Revenue for the quarter ending August rose 71 percent to $380.7 million, topping analyst forecasts of $362.9 million, boosted by a "material contribution" from its consumer business, which includes notebooks and cell phones, for the first time. Looking ahead, the graphics chip maker expects revenue for the fiscal first quarter to be between $400 million to $430 million, vs. current analyst forecasts of $393.9 million. Semi Earnings Preview . . . The chip landscape is as healthy as it has been at any time in the last three years, and do not expect any earnings misses within the group for 3rd quarter. Areas that are normally seasonally strong in the 2H appears to be leading the way, including chips for mobile phones, PCs and consumer electronics. Storage, industrial and auto chip segments also appear to be reasonably solid, although there is some variation from company to company. At the bottom of the momentum spectrum are chips for telecommunications, with enterprise networking only slightly better. For the most part, analysts see the potential for fairly modest upside in 3rd quarter results and mild upward revisions to consensus earnings estimates for 4th quarter. This scenario is probably insufficient to motivate current shareholders to add to positions. However, it seems to us that there is a large pool of investors that are underweight or marketweight semis primarily for valuation reasons, and would like to increase their weighting if the group pulls back materially. Analysts recommend a very selective approach to the group at this point. Analysts are focused upon companies that can demonstrate meaningful earnings leverage in the near term, such as Fairchild, Intel, and to a lesser degree, Cypress. If stocks pull back further, some of the companies that are approaching a stronger seasonal period in 1H (e.g., Altera, Linear, Maxim and Xilinx) may become more interesting. Analog ICs seem to be among the best product areas in the chip industry (positive for Analog Devices, Liear Tech, Maxim Integrated Fairchild, International Rectifier, National Semi) for both secular and seasonal reasons. By most reckoning, expect that guidance from most companies will be consistent with (if not slightly better than) estimates and current consensus expectations for 4th quarter. In a few cases such as LSI Logic, Agere Systems and Texas Instruments, 4th quarter consensus EPS appears a bit aggressive -- not necessarily unachievable, but with little chance of upside. Although we are slightly below Q4 EPS consensus for Intel, Xilinx and Fairchild, readers should treat that as conservatism rather than nervousness. RobBlack.com MarketWrap robblack.com