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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: austrieconomist who wrote (1282)	10/6/2003 7:02:29 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

This guy concurs wit' you: "Complete management from the Offices of Misinformation continue unabated. We skip into the Sunset of this empire bedecked in Buster Browns and matching pleaded skirts. Your basic mass consumer drone is deballed and expected then to conform. No real selling without a disturbance in the force. Neo remains asleep on Quaaludes. His only concern being the weekend numbers on his upcoming sequel. Without some Sigma 10 event, the 3rd Wavers from the Elliot Asylum will once again return to their dilapidated rooming house in South Jersey and mutter sweet nothings to the 4 gray walls that entomb their decaying imaginations. The Elliot Wave Sepulchre has reopened its maw and awaits a new feeding; the desert course to the March feast. Best in Holiday humilities, Buddha" capitalstool.com

To: austrieconomist who wrote (1282)	10/6/2003 7:11:28 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<I've been a poster since May and have been reading a consistent line of posts on your thread.> I don't know who've you've been reading, but here is roughly my positioning during this period. BTW this thread actually started June 11th, almost perfectly timed with the bond top. Virtually every post I've made at SI prior to then; May? has been related mostly to two subjects: energy and gold stocks. And this was the real time to buy stocks and when the powerful moves occurred. Subject 53273 The last three months has been a slow grind upward (and I'd say a massive distribution). I doubt if many investors are really up that much since early July: stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[p][vc60][iUa12,26,9]&pref=G April (I actually listed the whole portfolio at PM) 50% long gold stocks 40% long energy stocks 7% long aggressive stocks 3% short May: 50% long gold stocks 40% long energy 5% long aggressive stocks 5% short June: 50% long gold stocks 40% long energy 10% short July: 50% long gold 40% long energy 10% short August: 45% long gold (probably much higher because of the big move) 40% long energy 15% short September: around Labor day weekend I ran a whole series of posts here and at PM regarding the shift I saw underway, in the period since I've steadily gone to: 5% long gold stocks 40% long energy stocks 55% short I've felt the stock market has been vulnerable since late June, but I've hardly felt compelled to aggressively short it until now despite my bearish disposition. I will admit that the last several weeks has been a bit painful, however none of the investments (gold stocks, longs ,energy stocks) I use are like T-Bills. I experienced some pain in nearly every successful I've ever used. I don't think I've ever had a clean brake from the gate, but my profits are still enormous over the last three years, and this year is no exception. I guess I'd have to ask then how do these gurus have you positioned?

To: austrieconomist who wrote (1282)	10/7/2003 8:53:03 AM
From: Silver Super Bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

AE, RE: "I have been reading a consistent line of posts on your thread (the ones here are very similar) to the effect that "the market is ready to drop like an overweight Sumo wrestler" I'll admit I have posted bearish commentary over on the PBM thread, as well as this one, since this rally began. Basically, all things considered, I think the market was very overvalued in March, and exceedingly overvalued now. Sensing that a mini-mania has been in progress, I have waited until recently to really pile on the short positions. Sure, it would have been profitable to be bullish during this rally. But personally, I can't stand the "Greater Fool" investing theory, where people recklessly throw money at overvalued securities or "junk", hoping/assuming that some other reckless or uninformed investor will buy the stuff at yet higher prices. I have taken some hits to the short positions. However, if I am right as to the levels of overvaluation, and how this rather outlandish situation will be resolved, I'm sure that the returns will be very handsome. DB