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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: unclewest who wrote (11081)	10/7/2003 5:11:36 AM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 793801

INTERNET RONIN BLOG Worth Watching Tomorrow California's official election day is tomorrow. As of this morning, over 2,000,000 people have already voted, more than cast absentee and early ballots in 2002. There are another 1,000,000 absentee ballots outstanding. If those are returned, more people will have voted early than did in the presidential election of 2000. Here are some things worth watching tomorrow: Is there a significant difference in total vote for/against the recall and total vote for all replacement candidates? All but forgotten amidst all the hoopla was the almost complete lack of advertising supporting the recall (not candidates) and reminders to supporters that they need to vote "Yes" on the question if their candidate is to have any hope of victory. We shall see if Californians are capable of figuring that little fact out for themselves or if their average voting IQ is approximately equal to that of a Palm Beach, Florida resident. Is total turnout above or below 2002? And 2000? As noted above, it was on-track to exceed 2002 and equal 2000 before the mud started flying last Thursday. Contrary to widespread belief, negative campaigning is not really designed to change anyone's mind: it is designed to discourage turnout among the opponent's supporters. Late in a campaign, there really are few genuinely undecided voters, but there are significant numbers of "leaners" and infrequent voters. Effective negative campaigning convinces those people that it isn't worth the trouble to vote for such a "flawed person" or that "they are all the same so why bother?" If actual voter turnout on election day is lower than predicted, it probably spells trouble for Arnold Schwarzenegger, as he is the only candidate who has undergone intense scrutiny and been the primary subject of almost all negative advertising. Who turns out to vote? The wide variance in reported pre-election polling results have been almost entirely due to disagreement among pollsters of the definition (and therefore, the political make-up) of likely voters. Some have relied on previous turn-out mixes to compute their results while others have weighted their results with a larger GOP and/or heavier-than-normal turnout among infrequent voters. As the day wears on, we will learn who was more effective at getting their voters to the polls (despite all those attempts to discourage them). How many votes does Tom McClintock get? Unlike Schwarzenegger, McClintock received a free ride during this election because he was always considered an "also-ran." While some, such as NRO's Peter Robinson, think it significant that McClintock polled ahead of Bustamante in a hypothetical two-person race, that is next to meaningless because McClintock's positions on various issues have received scant attention, and are largely unknown by most voters. Were he a credible potential victor, many of McClintock's positions, on social issues in particular, would have been more closely examined (and publicized by the opposition) to his detriment. As it is, McClintock could still end up the spoiler in this campaign, retaining his hard-core conservative base while siphoning off enough voters turned off by the supposed "groping scandal" to deny Schwarzenegger victory. internetronin.com