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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JohnM who wrote (11095)10/6/2003 11:06:00 PM
From: gamesmistress  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 794338
 
I checked the AFT site and found that the last state ranking by teachers' salaries adjusted by COLA was done for 1996-97. Pity they seem to be no longer doing it. In that last ranking, NJ was rated 2nd without COLA adjustment and 5th with it. Not that big a drop.

The big difference in the cost of living here in the last few years, of course, is the skyrocketing cost of housing. That affects everyone, not just teachers. And I agree that education is critically important, but not that the current educational structure is necessarily worth preserving nor that greatly increasing teachers' salaries is going to suddenly attract vast numbers of people who would have otherwise gone into investment banking or network administration. :-/ There's an interesting survey on the Public Agenda site called Stand By Me. It "examines the attitudes of America's public school teachers--about their jobs, the challenges they face and the reform proposals that may change what they do." I get the impression that yes, money matters, but the working environment and the administration matter just as much.

publicagenda.org



To: JohnM who wrote (11095)10/7/2003 5:41:26 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 794338
 
Kling makes a point that you normally would agree with, John. Examine the facts, or attack the motive of the person on the opposite side?
__________________________________________


An Open Letter to Paul Krugman

By Arnold Kling Published 10/07/2003

Dear Paul,

You might remember me from graduate school at MIT. I would like to ask you a question about what constitutes a reasonable argument.



For example, suppose I were to say, "We should abolish the minimum wage. That would increase employment and enable more people to climb out of poverty."



There are two types of arguments you might make in response. I call these Type C and Type M.



A hypothetical example of a Type C argument would be, "Well, Arnold, studies actually show that the minimum wage does not cost jobs. If you read the work of Krueger and Card, you would see that the minimum wage probably reduces poverty."



A hypothetical example of a Type M argument would be, "People who want to get rid of the minimum wage are just trying to help the corporate plutocrats."



Paul, my question for you is this:



Do you see any differences between those two types of arguments?



I see differences, and to me they are important. Type C arguments are about the consequences of policies. Type M arguments are about the alleged motives of individuals who advocate policies.



In this example, the type C argument says that the consequences of eliminating the minimum wage would not be those that I expect and desire. We can have a constructive discussion of the Type C argument -- I can cite theory and evidence that contradicts Krueger and Card -- and eventually one of us could change his mind, based on the facts.



Type M arguments deny the legitimacy of one's opponents to even state their case. Type M arguments do not give rise to constructive discussion. They are almost impossible to test empirically.



Here are some more examples of issues where liberals could choose to use either type C or type M arguments:



Tax Cuts



Suppose that someone were to say, "The Bush tax cuts will increase long-term growth." You might raise various objections.



One possible type C argument would be that even if the tax cuts increase long-term growth, they will increase inequality. Thus, the consequences are not good. We could have a constructive discussion of that issue, although we may not come to agreement.



Another possible type C argument would be that the tax cuts will reduce national saving, thereby lowering the capital stock, thereby reducing economic growth. They will have the exact opposite of the consequence that is claimed for them. I think that this is an important argument. I have the discomfiting impression that many in the Bush Administration and its supply-side supporters fail to understand this argument.



A type M argument would be, "So what were the Bush tax cuts really about? The best answer seems to be that they were about securing a key part of the Republican base. Wealthy campaign contributors have a lot to gain from lower taxes, and since they aren't very likely to depend on Medicare, Social Security or Medicaid, they won't suffer if the beast gets starved." In fact, this is what you wrote in "The Great Tax Cut Con," which can now be found at The unofficial Krugman archive.



To me, this is not a helpful argument. Imagine that we could somehow prove that the motives of the supply-siders were pure, and that they really did want to improve economic growth. Would that purity of motive outweigh the argument that the higher deficits will actually have the consequence of reducing growth? I would hope not. Conversely, if the motives are wrong but the consequences are good, to me that would argue in favor of the tax cuts, not against them.



School Vouchers



Suppose that I were to say, "I believe that school vouchers would increase the quality of education and reduce the gap between the quality of schools attended by the poor and that of those attended by the rich."



A type C argument would be that there are other values that are more important, so that public education, whatever its flaws, should be maintained as it is. If you took such a position, we could have a constructive discussion, but we might end up having to disagree.



Another type C argument, which you raised in an essay in Mother Jones, would be, "Upper-income families would realize that a reduction in the voucher is to their benefit: They will save more in lowered taxes than they will lose in a decreased education subsidy. So they will press to reduce public spending on education, leading to ever- deteriorating quality for those who cannot afford to spend extra. In the end, the quintessential American tradition of public education for all could collapse." This is an argument about consequences. I believe that it is wrong, because I think that upper-income families would be happy to pay higher taxes to support an education system that works rather than one that fails. But at least we are talking about an empirical question.



A type M argument would be the one you made in the next paragraph of your essay. "The leaders of the radical right want privatization of schools, of public sanitation -- of anything else they can think of -- because they know such privatization undermines what remaining opposition exists to their program." This argument shuts off any constructive debate. It dehumanizes me to the point where I am not even given credit for knowing what my own motives are. Similarly, when I read the comments on Kevin Drum's blog post about vouchers, I see a lot of type M arguments.



The War in Iraq



Suppose that someone says, "The war in Iraq has made us safer from terrorism." You would disagree.



A type C argument would be to suggest that in fact the war in Iraq has made us less safe from terrorism. One view might be that if we had backed down, we would have had broader support in the world and more resources to deal with terrorism elsewhere. It is a difficult question to settle empirically, but we can have a reasonable argument.



A type M argument would be to write, as you did on September 9, that, "It's now clear that the Iraq war was the mother of all bait-and-switch operations. Mr. Bush and his officials portrayed the invasion of Iraq as an urgent response to an imminent threat, and used war fever to win the midterm election." This is not a constructive argument. My opinion is that it requires an implausible degree of complicity among highly dedicated civil servants. Would Colin Powell not have resigned if the purpose of the war were to win an election? Furthermore, I still care far more about consequences than about motives. If the consequences of the Iraq war are that it leads to increased terrorism and conflict, then even the purest motives would not make it a good war, and vice-versa.



The Economic Consequences of Mr. Krugman



Paul, your columns consist primarily of type M arguments. Either you do not see the difference between type C arguments and type M arguments, or you do not care.



I am not going to try to guess your motives for relying on type M arguments. However, I can tell you some of the consequences.



One consequence is to lower the level of political discourse in general. You have a lot of influence with those who sympathize with your views. When they see you adopt type M arguments, they do the same.



Conversely, many of your opponents are stooping to your level. I see type M arguments raised by many of your enemies on the Right. As horse manure draws flies, your columns generate opposition that is vindictive and uninformed.



Another consequence is to lower the prestige and impact of economists. We are trained to make type C arguments. Instead, you are teaching by example that making speculative assessments of one's opponent's motives is more important than thinking through the consequences of policy options. If everyone were to use such speculative assessments as the basis for forming their opinions, then there would be no room for economics in public policy discussions.



You could express your point of view using type C arguments and still take strong stands for what you believe is right. In fact, you might find that doing so would make you more effective. Even if that is not the case, even if there is a sort of media version of Gresham's Law in which specious reasoning drives out careful analysis, then that is a challenge for all of us who are trained as economists. I believe that we have a professional duty to try to be part of the solution, not part of the problem.

Copyright © 2003 Tech Central Station - www.techcentralstation.com



To: JohnM who wrote (11095)10/7/2003 5:55:31 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 794338
 
"Quicksilver" is getting an enormous response and causing a lot of articles to be written. I have it on reserve. For year's I drank my coffee from a cup that had "1687" on one side, and "If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I stand on the shoulders of Giants." —Sir Isaac Newton, on the other. I look upon Newton as being "The Anchorpoint of History." Think of an hourglass standing vertically with a line though it at the small middle. Lable that "1687," The publication date of the "Principa." Everything in Physics before that date is integrated by that book, and everything in Physics since flows back to it.
____________________________________
Tech Central Station."

The Source of the Modern World

By Glenn Harlan Reynolds Published 10/07/2003


Last week's column inspired by Neal Stephenson's new novel, Quicksilver, produced an email from Stephenson's publisher, which led to me chatting with him on the telephone. The result was the following interview, done by cellphone as both of us traveled to different engagements. It's a bit on the casual side, but I found it interesting.



TCS: What got you interested in the Seventeenth Century?



Neal Stephenson: It started with the personal stories of Newton and Leibniz. Then I started to learn about Hooke, and the other members of the Royal Society, and it kind of snowballed. There were so many things going on back then with ramifications and consequences that we feel today that I just got sucked in.



What I found interesting on a political level was that the Cromwell types were pushing a bunch of ideas that struck people as nuts at the time, but that are bedrock principles of modern society -- things like free enterprise and separation of church and state and limited government that took years to actually achieve.



Many of the people called Puritans were small businessmen and independent traders. They had a real bent toward free enterprise, and they developed a real resentment of government and taxes -- as a result, they were free traders. It's like what we see with a lot of pro-business people today.



[We then had an interesting discussion of whether the growth of self-employment today would lead to an increase in such sentiments in the modern world, though we reached
no conclusion.]



TCS: Many of the great minds in your book -- Hooke, Newton, Leibniz, etc. -- were, to put it mildly, kind of weird. But they were brilliant. I've heard a lot of people say that Richard Feynman would be too unconventional to get, or keep, a faculty position today. What about people like Newton, who was much odder? Are we sidelining our geniuses today?



NS: That's a big question. If you kind of read their "blogs" -- diaries of people like Pepys, Hooke, John Evelyn -- it's clear that they were pretty elastic, pretty adaptable, in their social arrangements. It didn't seem to faze them at all to deal with people who had odd social quirks. I think that's partly an English thing, part of having a clubby attitude. If you were a part of this club, the Royal Society, a pretty wide range of behavior was tolerated.



Today, well, I don't have enough firsthand experience with the modern academic world to have a sound opinion. But you can see examples of where really talented [eccentric] people today have been able to find a niche in the business world instead of academia.



In business, if you can make money, the personal oddities get overlooked. The bottom line is the bottom line.



In an academic setting you're looking at a different bottom line. It's a far more complex social environment that one has to navigate to get ahead, dealing with students, alumni, colleagues, the administration, and so on. I think you're onto an interesting question. It's too bad that there's not some kind of an index of eccentricity that we could use to compare the academic world and the business world over time.



TCS: Will your new website feature a blog?



NS: Not in the sense of chronological writing. Did you see the Metaweb site? That has some things in common with a blog. If someone asks a question, I can put up an answer. So that serves some bloglike functions. But to do something like that every day would totally interfere with getting books written.



TCS: I understand that you did all the writing on the Baroque Cycle books by hand, using a fountain pen. Did that make a difference?



NS: Absolutely. The key difference is that it's slower. It's like when you're writing, there's a kind of buffer in your head where the next sentence sits while you're outputting the last one. As long as it's still in your head, it's easy to manipulate that next sentence, or even to reject it. Once it's out, well. . .



When you're using a high-speed output method there's less of that. In my opinion, the first draft quality winds up being higher with a pen. It's easier to edit -- to scratch out a word is easier than backspacing over it. What this enables me to do is to get words down in a way that's closer to the final version. And it's more stable: no hard-drive crashes, accidentally deleted files, and so on.



Paper's a really advanced technology. That was brought home to me by working on this, when I read a lot of documents from that era, which were put down on really good, acid-free paper. They're all pretty much as good as they were the day they were made 300 or 350 years ago. This is not going to be true of today's electronic media in 300 years. There's a lesson there.



TCS: One of the themes in Quicksilver seems to involve the relationship between money and knowledge. I remember a scene in Stranger in a Strange Land in which Michael [the Man From Mars] suddenly understands money, and he's staggered -- he thinks it's the most beautiful thing humans have created. Do you remember that scene?



NS: I don't remember that. I read the book as a teenager, but I think I was more interested that he was sleeping with so many people. The money part must not have made an impression.



TCS: On your website, you talk about fame, and say that your fame is like being the Mayor of Des Moines -- quite famous within a group of a few hundred thousand people, but largely unknown to everyone else. As media fragment, do you think this is the future of fame?



NS: That's interesting. This is a kind of inversion of Warhol's idea, that everyone would be famous -- to everyone else -- for fifteen minutes. In the future, maybe everyone will be famous for a long time, but to a limited group.



I do think that society has a craving, hardwired in somehow, to have a few people, no more than a couple of dozen maybe, who are universally famous, people like J. Lo or Britney Spears. However, once you get beyond that level, I think it is going to be a kind of highly fragmented, focused kind of fame.



It makes for interesting situations. I'm sitting in a Marriott outside of Ypsilanti right now, and there's a dental convention here. I'm totally anonymous. I can get a drink in the bar, go down to the restaurant, whatever and nobody will recognize me. But if I went to a science fiction convention, I'd be famous in those confines and I'd probably be recognized if I went anywhere.



TCS: Any final thoughts?



NS: I'm glad you picked up on the Seventeenth Century's role as being the source of so much of the modern world. I don't think that many people appreciate that, and I think it's really fascinating stuff.



I think that it is really interesting stuff, and I hope -- as I suggested last week -- that Quicksilver will bring more popular attention to the ideas of the Seventeenth Century, ideas that may have special relevance today.

Copyright © 2003 Tech Central Station - www.techcentralstation.com