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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (39257)	10/7/2003 5:00:52 AM
From: que seria	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, here's an energy prognosis that would interrupt China growth if true, but which I'm inclined to think is overdone pessimism. Maybe not quite a Club of Rome overstatement, though. Not an apparent Green either; the author debunks solar panels as a solution. In fact, he's more certain and much less sanguine about "the end" of the world as we know it than you are. His website name says it all. Maybe "grim reaper" was already taken? dieoff.com It is true, from all I've read (best single source: Big Dog's Boom Boom Room), that the dates of oil and NG production peaks across the world's producing basins are a consensus matter within a range of a few years, and already past or rapidly approaching. Also true that the giant fields peaking out aren't being offset by new discoveries, as essential for reserve replacement. Lesson for me: Buy oil & gas producers with long-lived holdings, in preference to most energy trusts with their emphasis upon cash return from what are generally more static resource bases. Avoid companies that will spend all profits in an ever-worsening failure to stay in place on the production treadmill. I'll let you know what I buy; I'm waiting for October weather to play out, since I prefer North American NG producers. Right now the one company that stands out, from memory, is XTO, which is gas-weighted.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (39257)	10/7/2003 2:00:52 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay. I've been posting on FADG, irritating the WarMongers: Message 19372109 Yes, China has done well, the last two years. They stand in the neutral corner, in the Clash of Civilizations, quietly getting richer. An island of peace, in a world being consumed by fundamentalist passions. The U.S. has kept buying everything China makes. This process is still dependent on ever-higher trade deficits, and now record government deficits, and record consumer debt. All this is dependent on very low interest rates in the U.S. At some point, interest rates will rise, cash-out refis will stop, consumers will start to get scared about their debt levels, and consumer spending will do what business spending did in 2000-2002. It hasn't happened yet. I'm uncertain of the timing, but I'm quite certain it will happen, as the unsustainable trends I pointed out 2 years ago, have simply become more extreme, and still have not been resolved. Half-trillion-$ federal deficits will bring closer, the day of higher interest rates. At which point Americans will have to start living within their means, and China will sell a lot less to the U.S.