Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: austrieconomist who wrote (1294)	10/7/2003 8:46:07 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Of course you understand that my purpose is not to try and get you short, especially if your not tempermentally suited for it? I just post what I'm doing, with the full admission that I'm a very aggressive speculator. I'm not suggesting anybody try what I do at home. I have no quarrel with your positioning at all, better than most for sure. <posts from Jim Willie, Deadbull and you, all of which were to the effect that the market was going to go down hard and promptly.> Boy, I sure don't recall any like this (hard and prompt). We (the bears) are definitely calling this an historic bubble, but from what I can glean, all these posters appreciate and understand the sick perversity of this market and the difficulty of calling exact turns. I've already been through shorting a major bubble (2000), and you don't have to tell me how tough it is. In fact I can't even remember the actual top then, it's just quietly happened, and even I expected the market "to come back again". This describes the state of the market well. I feel that the aggressiveness of the bears is what has postponed the reckoning. I've been gagging everytime I see the put buying picking up. See post 133 (an error, 50-60 for put buying should read over 1.00): financialsense.com Of course, I firmly believe it is not me sitting on the powder keg; The bull and bear camps have rarely been so polarized. One of them is going to get pounded. September 26, 2003: 8:35 AM EDT By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Somebody has the market dreadfully wrong. When they realize it, there will be hell to pay. There are always camps of bullish and bearish investors pushing their beliefs on which way stocks are headed, but rarely have things been so polarized as they are now. Both the Nasdaq Stock Market and the New York Stock Exchange released short-interest figures earlier this week. On the Nasdaq, the number of shares sold short through Sept. 15 rose by 2 percent from the period ended Aug. 15. This despite an 8 percent rise in the Nasdaq Composite -- the sort of rally that usually sends short seller racing for cover. On the NYSE, short interest fell by 1.5 percent. But it is still historically high, coming in at around 1.57 percent of total market capitalization according to Rhodes Analytics. Bullish commentators regularly suggest that this heavy short interest is a powder keg, and that it means the market is set up for a huge rally to the upside. To bet against a stock by going short, an investor borrows the shares from his broker and sells them, hoping to buy them back later at a lower price and return them. The difference between the price he gets to keep. But when the shortseller gets it wrong, and the price of the stock goes up, he has to buy back the stock at a higher price. When things get out of hand, he's going to buy in a hurry, which only makes the stock go higher still. Such short squeezes can be powerful. If there is an opposite to selling short, it is buying on margin -- borrowing money from the broker in order to buy more shares than you can with your cash at hand. And margin debt, too, is rising. At NYSE-member firms in August it rose to $149.66 billion, up 0.8 percent from July and 11.3 percent from the beginning of the year. Through July, the NASD has reported that Nasdaq margin debt grew to $26 billion, up from $5.1 billion at the start of the year. This prompted to Nasdaq to issue a warning on the dangers of buying on margin. Put simply, if you borrow money to buy stocks, and your stocks go down sharply, your broker, worried about keeping its principal, may issue a margin call: If you can't come up with additional cash, it will liquidate your stocks. It can send stocks down as sharply as short squeezes can send them up. Both shorting and buying on margin are dangerous business. Investors who practice either really need to know what they're doing. Alas, often they do not. Somebody really is sitting on a powder keg. We just don't know who it is yet.

To: austrieconomist who wrote (1294)	10/7/2003 9:46:44 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 110194

USDollar takes a dump, under 92.0 (dont forget to wipe) quotes.ino.com jyen above 91.3 now !!! resistance (stated by Jackass last week) at 92-93 all money used by Bank of Japan utterly wasted last week those mercantile morons have blown over $70 billion this year euro kicking buttock at 117.7 now the "white man hot potato" is being tossed across the pond given that US has no material trade gap with the EU, this euro rise is a great distraction to the real problem NECESSITY FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO RISE 30% crude oil over 30.2 again gold should make its assault on $400 in a matter of a few weeks / jim