Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NickSE who wrote (44773)	10/7/2003 12:10:16 PM
From: NickSE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Heed the Arab (Wall) Street techcentralstation.com Anti-American demonstrations, comments in Arab language newspapers, acts of violence against the occupation government of Iraq and even opinion polls have been sited as support for the argument that we and our institutions are unwelcome in the Arab world and have made matters worse there. Indeed, one of the chief arguments against coalition intervention in Iraq was that military action there would "destabilize the region." The standard conservative response was that the region was already destabilized. A related argument against the war was that the Arab world "didn't want us there" and that American intervention in the region would create greater levels of hatred towards America and American values. But what do the data say? (Graph here) Perhaps the purest statement of a man's true views is what he does with his hard-earned money -- voting with his wallet. When people vote with their silence by not staging counter-demonstrations you don't really know that they're thinking. When people vote with their lips by giving an answer to a pollster you get a view of their thoughts. When people vote with the accumulated capital of their life's labors you find out what they really think. What do people who live in or invest in the Middle East and Central Asia really think about American intervention in Iraq? At a minimum, they think it's good for future -- and for future profits. Looking at the countries with readily available market indices -- Israel TA-100, Turkish ISE National-100, Pakistani Karachi 100, Egyptian CMA -- we find that every one of those indices has risen over the time period, from George Bush's ultimatum on March 17th to now. Egypt is up 19.3%; Israel is up 29.3%; Turkey is up 45.1%; and the-powder-keg-known-as-Pakistan is up an astonishing 67.5%!

To: NickSE who wrote (44773)	10/10/2003 3:19:08 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Put yourself in their place... Via Drudge, Russia is considering Euro- rather than dollar-denominated crude oil production. We heard similar scare stories about OPEC many months ago, before Iraq was liberated. Now consider this very simple table, posted by us way back on June 24 (in connection with the Boskin "antibonds" story): ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ GOVERNMENT DEBT AND PENSION LIABILITIES AS PERCENT OF GDP (1990) ===net conventional debt=======net pension liabilities CANADA===52================121 GERMANY==22================157 ITALY====100================259 UK=======27================156 US=======35= ===============90 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Essays on Pension Reform, Max Alier PhD Thesis, University of California LA, 1997; quoted in R.E.A. Farmer, Macroeconomics, South-Western, 2002, p. 162. OK now you tell me, which major trading bloc's currency do you think is least likely to undergo chronic deterioration in value over the next fifty years? Put yourself in Russia's position. What would you do? Don't want to say I told you so, but... From today's CBO announcement: The federal government incurred a total budget deficit of about $374 billion for fiscal year 2003, CBO estimates, more than twice the deficit recorded in 2002, although less than both CBO and the Office of Management and Budget projected this summer. In dollar terms, that shortfall represents the largest deficit in U.S. history -- well above the $290 billion deficit of 1992. However, at about 3.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), it would still be smaller than the deficits of the mid-1980s and early 1990s relative to the size of the economy. (Emphasis added) From The July Fairmodel US Model Forecast Memo: The federal government is now running a large budget deficit, and the model is predicting that the deficit will continue to be large throughout the forecast period (see the predicted values for SGP). By the end of 2004 the deficit is about $400 billion (remember this is the deficit as measured in the NIPA accounts). This $400 billion is smaller than the federal government is projecting the deficit to be, and so the model is more optimistic about the government's budget than is the government. (Emphasis added) Link posted by Steve Antler : 6:09 PM