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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JohnM who wrote (11192)10/7/2003 2:32:39 PM
From: DMaA  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 793731
 
But... I'm curious. Which one 1, 2 or 3, do you disagree with?



To: JohnM who wrote (11192)10/7/2003 3:10:25 PM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793731
 
I was wrong! Steinberg had another good column in him on the Recall. I will follow him with interest when the National Elections heat up. He should have a role somewhere.
_________________________________________________


October 07, 2003, 8:17 a.m.
End of Gray Days
Recall Day in California.

By Arnold Steinberg — a California-based political strategist. NRO

LOS ANGELES — Two Democrat tracking polls show the California recall winning today; one at 52 percent, one at 54 percent, and both show Democrat Cruz Bustamante competitive. Republican tracking polls show a much greater recall margin, and Bustamante long gone. In fact, after freefall, Cruz hit bottom at the core-Democratic base and started to climb back this weekend.

Bustamante's ubiquitous TV spots still rely on a very strong visual: He removes his glasses. But, he has bought so many TV spots in the last 72 hours that some run back-to-back. Moreover a poorly produced Dianne Feinstein spot (although it has the right message) might cut recall support and help him. McClintock himself remains a wild card. His support is overwhelmingly conservative but Orange County's alternative newspaper endorsed him in a weird editorial ("Why progressives should vote for the most conservative candidate"). R. Scott Moxley wrote: "Don't be frightened. Despite initial appearances, McClintock is the best choice.") Will the Green party's Peter Camejo take enough votes from the Cruzer to assure an Arnold Schwarzenegger win?

Back to election numbers. Last week, news reports prematurely claimed varying amounts of absentee ballots "have been cast." They were looking at absentee applications. Actually, any such number also (wrongly) included "late" absentees arriving Monday and today. Moreover, in each new election, more voters bring their absentee ballots to the polls. Thus, late voter shifts, if they exist, would be reflected partly in these absentee ballots (yesterday/today). More generally, absentee voters are far less Republican than their counterparts two decades ago. But they remain disproportionately older and, in this election, relatively more anti-Davis.

A generation ago, a voter had to provide a reason, e.g., illness, to apply for an absentee ballot. That changed long ago. That's a key reason why absentee voting moved upward, as a percentage of total votes cast, from the single digits in the 1970s to double-digits in the '80s and '90s; we could be talking about 30 percent or more in this election. On the Republican side, Arnold's campaign mailed absentee applications and also "chased" applicants. Last year, for the first time, many voters were able to apply for "permanent absentee" status. That's just what many Republicans did.

The first Election Night returns tonight will probably be mainly absentee ballots. Generally, these absentee totals reflect only the ballots that have arrived the day before the election. It will take days to count the large number of ballots arriving at county registrar offices today, or brought to the precincts.

This confuses the voter-turnout numbers. That's because television reporters will focus on this election's hourly turnout, comparing past elections. They never seem to get it right. When the polls close, turnout magically jumps — it's the absentees; days later, it climbs yet again, with late absentees.

The networks will test exit polling for this recall election. Their joint operation is a prototype for 2004. They had abandoned exit polling after widely publicized mishaps in recent years. But California had its own disaster more than two decades ago. That's when exit polling showed Tom Bradley winning for governor against George Deukmejian. One problem is the exit polling necessarily focused on Election Day voters, not the absentee voters who gave Deukmejian his victory margin. This time, exit polls will allow for the effect of absentee voting.

Also, the Los Angeles Times will do its own exit polling. (It will probably ask females, "Were you ever groped by Arnold?") But the newspaper and the networks face the same challenge: There are no precedents for this unique election. Yet, exit polls rely on interviews with voters leaving selected precincts. That begs this question: How are the relatively small number of precincts chosen? Past electoral behavior is a key factor. Thus, the architects of the exit polls must bridge the speculative gap between past elections and this one.

Counting the ballots will not be easy, and probably not punctual. The seven pages of candidates will require more time than usual. Think of how many people will likely "over-vote" (meaning they vote for more than one candidate)? Over-voting disqualifies a ballot. What if the election is close and the ACLU doesn't like the outcome? Look for nonwhite over-voters.

One NRO reader wrote me: "Arnold has been groped by women at least as often as he grouped them." That's one of many Republican reactions that reflect this double standard: Arnold is from Hollywood. There is widespread rage at the Los Angeles Times for what is seen as a last-minute scheme to throw the election. But if "last-minute smears" backfire, then why did the paper wait?

If crowds are any indication, Arnold will win easily. That's even if you discount the curious — his tour looks like a presidential campaign. The number of reporters and cameras could be ominous. Suppose Arnold wins. Assuming no legal battles, he could become certified as governor in about three weeks. He would not have the usual transition (November/January). It's not just the media here that would dog him, but national and even international media. Voters have high and unrealistic expectations; they will need a reality fix.

Will Democrats try to recall him? Such a move would probably create its own anti-Dem backlash. For any recall to succeed, Arnold would have to renege, big-time on something big — like backsliding on his promise to repeal the car tax hike.

The super-rich Clinton-pal Steve Bing might pay for a recall campaign. Recall that Bing has been subject to two high-profile celebrity paternity suits. Would he really propose that Arnold be recalled for improper sexual etiquette?
nationalreview.com



To: JohnM who wrote (11192)10/7/2003 3:57:02 PM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 793731
 
Alan Keyes is turning out to be the Republican's "Cross to Bear," as Jesse and Al are the Democrat's. He is a Religious fanatic who is a Black Conservative and an excellent speaker.
______________________________________

DERBYSHIRE AWARD NOMINEE: "On all the matters that touch upon the critical moral issues, Arnold Schwarzenegger is on the evil side. This is a fact. A mere list of the positions he supports is enough to make this plain: abortion as a "right," cloning of human beings, governmental classification of citizens by race, public benefits for sexual partners outside of marriage, disrespect for property rights against environmental extremism, repudiation of the right to bear arms – no more need be said to show that this candidate is wrong where human decency, human rights and human responsibility bear directly on political issues... The worst enemy Republicans face in the political realm is not the Democrats, but the power of evil that lurks in all hearts. In the context of this true reality, the decision to vote for Schwarzenegger is not a clever tactical calculation. It is a strategic blunder. Troy did not fall until the Trojans brought the horse into their city. The Greeks offered them a false victory, and so destroyed them. The leadership of the California Republican Party does not appear much wiser than the Trojans', nor, I fear, will its fate be any happier." - Alan Keyes, describing the leading GOP candidate in California as an accomplice to "evil."
andrewsullivan.com



To: JohnM who wrote (11192)10/7/2003 5:06:34 PM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793731
 
As time goes by -gee, that sounds familiar- I am finding more and more good Blogs to source.
"Ranting Profs" - With their attitude, they must be tenured.

Critiques of media coverage of the war on terror, and the politics surrounding it. Cori Dauber is a Professor of Communication Studies and Peace, War, and Defense at the University of North Carolina, and Scott Deatherage is a Professor of Communication Studies at Northwestern
____________________________________________

ANY EXCUSE FOR A COUNTDOWN! This isn't about the war; it's just funny. Starting with Florida 2000, NBC/MSNBC got attached to the idea of putting countdown clocks in the corner of the screen. Any excuse no matter how flimsy ("five hours till that fax has to be in!") and up went that countdown timer. . . they did it with the President's ultimatum to Saddum . . . seriously, any excuse for a countdown. So this morning? Time left to vote in California! Maybe ABC will take down their horrid Vote 2004 logo and replace it with hours left to vote in the Presidential election.

# posted by Cori @ 4:13 AM
OH, GIVE IT A REST: Neil MacFarquhar of the New York Times is so determined we get his point that "American occupied Iraq [is] teetering on the brink of bedlam" he's now inserting it in articles on the Arabs and Israelis. Ok, we get it, you don't think things are going well in Iraq. But teetering on the brink of bedlam? Is there any other media outlet still using language that strong, and still willing to apply it to the entire country? So what's the deal with this guy? (He's the reporter with the byline on the story that found nothing much positive going on in Kirkuk, the Inquirer's big good news story.) Is he a natural pessimist? Sunk in the depths of depression at the moment? Constitutionally incapable of ever seeing the glass as half full? (Maybe he came up through the ranks of local television reporting, its possible.) Whatever the deal is, the Times perspective is day by day more out of step with other outlets.

# posted by Cori @ 3:55 AM

NOW THAT'S A MILESTONE: In the context of a story about reorganizing efforts on Iraq on Special Report with Brit Hume, Bret Baer notes that the electrical grid is now repaired to the point that electrical output is now greater than it was prewar. Remember my argument is that media negativity is less a function of event driven reporting, that is a focus on specific negative events (soldier shot, bomb detonated) than it is a function of the press ginning up a huge hue and cry over some bad news story, but then loosing interest and walking away when the problem is resolved, not reporting that resolution. Everyone will remember the two waves of reporting over the problem with electricity: first, why can't they can't the power on at all (then no stories reporting "hey, look! the power's on!"), a pause, then a spate of stories on how the low level of power was driving Iraqi dissatisfaction with the occupation (usually leaving out that power levels were lower in Baghdad, where the interviews were being conducted, not necessarily in the rest of the country. The CPA is distributing power evenly, not to the benefit of Baghdad, which Saddam never did.) So the question to stay attuned to over the next day is -- who will report this?

# posted by Cori @ 3:27 PM

rantingprofs.blogspot.com



To: JohnM who wrote (11192)10/7/2003 5:20:14 PM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793731
 
This is the second time this week I have posted an article by Alex Carnevale. Look at who he is:

alex carnevale ‘05 is the editor-in-chief of post-Brown Daily Herald. he writes about politics and the arts at www.neoliberal.blogspot.com.

Gives me hope for the future.
_______________________________________________

neocons rising

By Alex Carnevale

Dr. Joshua Muravchik began his career as a student activist during the civil rights movement in the 1960s, when he was only in his teens. A scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a self-declared "neoconservative," Muravchik is the author of "Heaven on Earth: The Rise and Fall of Socialism" and his most recent book, "Covering the Intifada: How the Media Reported the Palestinian Uprising." He spoke to Post- about his young political life, Edward W. Said, Brown Professor Paul Buhle, and the future of the Middle East.

You were the head of the Young People’s Socialist League at one point. What was your political evolution to conservatism?

Even when I was a young socialist, it was the time of the student left, called the New Left. It sounds funny forty years later. Most of it was very much more extreme than I was. I disliked the tactics which were anti-civil libertarian and increasingly violent. It was common for radicals to prevent speakers from speaking, which offended me. I was anti-communist, and the new left was mostly pro-communist; not pro-Russian, but they romanticized the Third World communists. I was in strong disagreement with that, because I regarded communists, however dashing, as being brutal dictators. I was at odds with the New Left, and that had a certain conservatizing effect on me. The people I was fighting with were on the left, not on the right, even though I regarded myself as a leftist.

When I was younger I had a pristine view, something like Tony Blair’s third way. It was that capitalism was bad, communism was bad, and socialism was a third way. At some point, just from reading, I came to realize that this neat little symmetry was very childish. I didn’t change my opinion that capitalism was bad, I just grew to understand that they were not equal evils. As I read the accounts of communists murdering their own citizens, I realized capitalism’s faults paled in comparison to the horrors of communism. And I had to adapt a more nuanced position.
I came to think my idea of a socialist paradise was really an illusion, that this was just a model that didn’t exist anywhere. What mattered was democracy versus dictatorship, and once you had a democracy, different democratic governments could have different priorities. There was really nothing called a socialist society, just a democratic society where you could advocate for social programs.

I wondered what your reaction to the death of Edward Said was.

I think he was an evil and dishonest man. I won’t say I’m glad he’s dead, that would be horrible thing to say. But I had the lowest regard for him.

What are the motives of the "neoconservatives," who many allege are now in control of the Bush administration?

The irony of the search for underlying ideologies is that much more than most people who hold high office in the government, Paul Wolfowitz is a policy intellectual who has left a pretty clear paper trail. The motives behind the policies he advocates are more readily available than would be true for most holders of high office. If you try to figure out what Colin Powell thinks about foreign policy, I don’t know how you’d define that. The same is true for Donald Rumsfeld, and to a certain extent, Condeleeza Rice.

I’m not taking anything away from these people; they are outstanding public servants. But they are not policy intellectuals. Even Rice, who is an academic, is not someone who would describe as a policy intellectual, who sets out arguments for certain approaches to foreign policy.

The interesting thing about Wolfowitz which appeals to me is that he’s more of an idealist than virtually anybody else who is that high up. I mean idealist not in the everyday use of the world—not like all young people like you are supposed to be idealist—it’s the formal division in foreign policy between realists and idealists. I count myself very much an idealist in foreign policy. I associate myself with the tradition of Wilson.

Idealists tend to be overwhelmingly people on the outside, whereas people on the inside tend to be realists. I guess it’s a natural thing: it’s easier to be an idealist if you’re just a critic. If you have responsibility to the government, you have to be pragmatic. Of all the people in the foreign policy establishment, I regard Paul as one who is the most sympathetic to an idealistic view, though he is still more of a realist than I am.

Here’s an example. I was very involved in the mid 1990s in agitating against US inaction regarding Bosnia. The first Bush administration was a very realist administration, and they were very cold about Bosnia. The first Bush referred to Bosnia as "a hiccup," with which we would not involve ourselves. Secretary James Baker said, "We don’t have a dog in that fight." The situation got pretty awful with the mass killing of civilians. I and various others were issuing broadsides, and I went to a lot of meetings and groups to advocate that cause. And the one guy who threw in with us on that cause was Wolfowitz.
The other key figure—the "evil twin"—is Richard Perle. He also got involved. He’s been very influential in the government in terms of a service, but he’s always been more of a maverick, whereas Paul is a consummate insider.

You cited Brown’s Paul Buhle in a recent Commentary piece as an example of the kind of anti-Semitic rhetoric hurled at the neoconservatives. Do you think that this represents a new kind of anti-Semitism?
Buhle’s remark was obviously anti-Semitic. And I think it’s a great tragedy that a serious university like Brown would let someone like Buhle teach there. He said the "Protocols of the Elders of Zion" [anti-Semitic text alleging Jews control the world] had an element of truth. This was a direct allegation of a Jewish cabal, without doubt an anti-Semitic statement.

The guy is also utterly disreputable in terms of complete disregard for scholarly standards in history. He has a complete disregard for evidence. For example, in that same piece, he referred to me by name as well as other people as neocons as being slotted into position in the neoconservative movement by my father. It’s hilarious because my father is alive and is still an active socialist. He’s completely opposed to my political ideas and to neoconservatism in general. I have a loving relationship with my dad, but we simply do not talk about politics.
There’s a fabulous story about Buhle. He wrote somewhere (he dabbles occasionally in Jewish issues) that a large number of the American volunteers who went to fight alongside members of the state of Israel in the War of Independence were members of the Communist Party. He wrote this in a historical journal, and a couple of the top historians of Communism read it with utter perplexity. According to their knowledge, which is quite expert, there was not a single American communist who died fighting. They wrote to Buhle, asking for his source. After many dodges, he cited some oral history, which they then got, and found it had nothing to do with the subject at all. Finally they challenged him and Buhle responded that with something incoherent to the effect that he would provide the evidence in the venue of his own choosing. The guy is really an unscrupulous fraud. Parents paying tuition at Brown ought to be complaining.

Your new book is called "Covering the Intifada: How the Media Reported the Palestinian Uprising." How can reporters better cover tyrannical regimes?

The big scandal here in the US was whether one sentence in the State of the Union message is misleading. The question is, was Bush being misleading by citing this report even though he had reason to know that the information contained in the report was perhaps untrue, or at least uncertain. This pretty tenous charge created a big scandal. Similarly Tony Blair in England is in a lot of trouble with three different investigations as to whether there was some effort again to be misleading, and the only question was whether some suppositions were being presented as firmer knowledge than they were. And I think that is how democracies work, that there is a democratic government to spin the news, but if they try to control it outwards, they get in big trouble.
In authoritarian countries, there are very great efforts to control the press through a combination of deception, intimidation, selectively granting access, and of course repression of other flows of information that might be embarrassing to the regime. I think that news organizations can cope with this if they face squarely the nature of the regime they are dealing with. The strange history is of reporters getting sucked in and going along in order to get along.

What is the short and long term prognosis for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Do you think Israel will attempt to exile or assassinate Yasir Arafat, and would that be a good thing?
I don’t think it would be a good thing if he was assassinated. I don’t know whether it would be a good thing if he were expelled, it might be. The best thing would be if he just died. I just attended a conference full of intense talks about this with Israelis and Palestinians. There certainly are people on the Palestinian side who want peace, how many, I don’t know. There are some among the Palestinian leadership who want peace.

The problem is, you can start roadmapping, but any scenario you work through for getting to peace or partial peace, you bump up against Camp David. There was a more generous deal from the Israeli way of looking at it offered there than is likely to be offered by the current Israeli government. And Arafat scorned it.

Whatever kind of scenario you try to put into place if you’re an American, if you play it out it goes nowhere. It eventually gets to Arafat, who has made clear he’s not ready for peace based on that. Therefore I think we’re at a logjam, a point of paralysis. Paralysis per se isn’t necessarily bad. I think it’s reasonable to say this conflict will take generations to solve. That would be all well and good if there wasn’t so much bloodshed. I don’t think going on like this for another twenty years is a bearable thought.

browndailyherald.com



To: JohnM who wrote (11192)10/7/2003 5:53:03 PM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793731
 
Hitchens is back in Iraq. And in good form.
lindybill@ifhecouldonlystaysober.com
___________________________________________

fighting words
Conversation With Khomeini
The ayatollah's grandson calls for a U.S. invasion of Iran.
By Christopher Hitchens
Posted Monday, October 6, 2003, at 11:03 AM PT

I have no respect for the hereditary principle and neither does Shiite Islam, which considers earthly kingship to be profane. But no one can be completely uninterested in heredity per se, and my first thought, on meeting Hossein Khomeini, was that he has his grandfather's eyebrows. Still, our conversation quickly banished the notion that this 45-year-old cleric is the least bit interested in running for his grandpa's job.

He is a relatively junior cleric—a sayeed—but he wears the turban and robe with some aplomb and was until recently a resident of Qum, the holy city of the Iranian Shiites and once the Vatican, so to speak, of the Khomeini theocracy. As soon as it became feasible, however, he moved to Baghdad (where he would have been executed on sight until a few months ago) and is now hoping to establish himself in Karbala, one of the two holy Shiite cities in southern Iraq. He refers as a matter of course to the work of the coalition forces in Iraq as a "liberation." He would prefer, he says, to live in Tehran, but he cannot consider doing so until there has been "liberation" in Iran also.

He speaks perfect Arabic, acquired during the years when the ayatollah and his family were exiled by the shah to live in Karbala, and he knows Iraq reasonably well already. He is of course a figure of fascination to the Iraqi Shiite population, but he doesn't seek any explicit role in their affairs. Nonetheless, his view of developments among them is worth hearing. "Talk of an Islamic state in Iraq is not very serious or very deeply rooted among the people. It is necessary for religion and politics to be separated." When I asked him about Moqtada al-Sadr, the Shiite anti-American extremist in Iraq who is the son of the late Ayatollah Sadr, murdered by Saddam Hussein, he was dismissive. "He is not considered an interpreter of our religion but only an imitator known only because of his father." Again, there is implicit disapproval of those who trade on the family name.

Even so, I could not resist asking his opinion of the famous fatwa against Salman Rushdie. I cannot say that I understood all of his reply, which was very long and detailed and contained some Quranic references and citations that were (to me at any rate) rather abstruse. But the meaning was very plain. A sentence of death for apostasy cannot really be pronounced, or acted upon, unless there is "an infallible imam," and there is no such thing. The Shiite faithful believe in a "hidden imam" who may one day be restored to them, but they have learned to be wary of impostors or false prophets. In any event, added Khomeini, there was an important distinction between what the Quran said and what an ayatollah as head of state might say. "We cannot nowadays have executions in this form." Indeed, he added, it was the policy of executions that had turned the Islamic revolution in Iran sour in the first place. "Now we have had 25 years of a failed Islamic revolution in Iran, and the people do not want an Islamic regime anymore."

It's not strictly necessary to speak to Hossein Khomeini to appreciate the latter point: Every visitor to Iran confirms it, and a large majority of the Iranians themselves have voted for anti-theocratic candidates. The entrenched and reactionary regime can negate these results up to a certain point; the only question is how long can they do so? Young Khomeini is convinced that the coming upheaval will depend principally on those who once supported his grandfather and have now become disillusioned. I asked him what he would like to see happen, and his reply this time was very terse and did not require any Quranic scriptural authority or explication. The best outcome, he thought, would be a very swift and immediate American invasion of Iran.

It hurt me somewhat to have to tell him that there was scant chance of deliverance coming by this means. He took the news pretty stoically (and I hardly think I was telling him anything he did not know). But I was thinking, wow, this is what happens if you live long enough. You'll hear the ayatollah's grandson saying, not even "Send in the Marines" but "Bring in the 82nd Airborne." I think it was the matter-of-factness of the reply that impressed me the most: He spoke as if talking of the obvious and the uncontroversial.

That reminded me to ask him what he thought of the mullahs' nuclear program. He calmly said that there was no physical force that was stronger than his faith, and thus there was no need for any country to arm itself in this way. No serious or principled Shiite had any fear of his belief being destroyed by any kind of violence. It was not a matter for the state, and the state and religion (he reiterated) ought to be separated—for both their sakes.

Hossein Khomeini operates within an entirely Quranic frame of reference, but what he has to say is obviously of great interest to those who take the secular "regime change" position. The arguments about genocide, terrorism, and WMD—in all of which I believe the Bush administration had (and has) considerable right on its side—are all essentially secondary to the overarching question: Does there exist in the Middle East a real constituency for pluralism and against theocracy and dictatorship. And can the exercise of outside force hope to release and encourage these elements? This is a historic question in the strict sense, because we will not know the true answer for some considerable time. But that does not deprive us of some responsibility to make judgments in the meanwhile, and we have good reason to know that the region can't be left to fester as it is. On my own recent visit to Baghdad, Karbala, and Najaf, as well as to Basra and then Kurdistan, I would say that I saw persuasive evidence of the unleashing of real politics in Iraq and of the highly positive effect of same. Conversation with Khomeini suggests to me that in at least one other highly important neighboring country, the United States has also managed to get on the right side of history, as we used to say.

Christopher Hitchens is a columnist for Vanity Fair and author of The Long Short War: The Postponed Liberation of Iraq.

Article URL: slate.msn.com