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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (116345)	10/8/2003 8:51:26 AM
From: Neocon	Respond to of 281500

Things did get better after Camp David. Now, 12 Arab powers have diplomatic relations with Israel, and the Frontline States of Egypt and Jordan are engaged in a Cold Peace with it. Things got better after Oslo, too, until the Intifada. Nevertheless, we still have the apparent commitment of the Palestinian Authority to the "land for peace" formula, and the renunciation of aspirations to annihilate Israel. There is no reason to think that we would not have had an eventual series of suicide bombers anyway, as frustration mounted, so the political context is a net improvement. I can only go by the historically low level of casualties. In a generally hostile environment, they would sustain at least 10 as much, judging from the average sustained in Vietnam. You are right, of course, that the trend will prove important. However, we are securing arms caches and killing or arresting members of the resistance all the time. Yes, they have improved somewhat, tactically, but so have we. Meanwhile, as services improve, and Iraqis themselves are in the line of fire, it seems likelier to me that the general population will become less tolerant of the troublemakers, and more interested in a return to normal life. The Turkish military is rather professional, and committed to Ataturk's vision of a secular Turkey firmly tied to the West. I grant you, that would apply more to the officer corps than to the rank and file, but I am not so very worried about the Turks. I look at it as a net plus to get a Muslim power, and a member of NATO, involved in peacekeeping. As for the Kurds, I think they understand that the Turks were perfectly prepared to attack them anyway, across the border, if they ever declared an independent Kurdistan. I do anticipate that we will have a reserve force in Iraq for sometime, to help keep the situation stable. We took the role we did in NATO because Germany could not fulfill its natural leadership role, given the distrust it had earned during the War. Thus, in a sense we were there more to keep Germany in line and act as its proxy, than anything else. In the same way, we are likely to have a presence in Iraq for an indeterminate amount of time, assuming that it can be negotiated with the permanent government, to reassure all factions that there will not be an outbreak of civil war, and to reassure Turkey and Iran that there will not be a rump Kurdistan. The hope here is that people are sick of wasting their time in brutal regimes or civil war, and that a relatively educated society like Iraq can show the way out of the Middle Eastern morass. I do think it is easy, but I do not think it is impossible, either..........