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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (39298)	10/7/2003 9:16:24 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 74559

more like i'm following up <g> doesn't much matter who he follows or leads at the end of the day. just a bag of wind blown by a vicarious breeze. no real direction of any kind beyond some level of serrendipity.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (39298)	10/7/2003 10:33:36 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

How countries develop: The country goes into a fast development phase as the guys leave behind the plows and start driving wheel barrows. No magic: just throwing capital and manpower does it. The indigenous managers, engineers, accountants, plus sons of the elite studying abroad can take care of that supported by few expats flown in. At this stage the whole country resembles a construction site. A budding middle class grows fast buying cars, homes, making babies -albeit less than their parents- develop taste for different food and snow balls the economic momentum created by the construction boom. An incipient industry develops manufacturing local content and substituting imports. That is the traditional path all countries that tried to developed to day followed. Here ends the parallel between China and the other countries. China didn't have only the reserve army at its disposal. It had as well, demobilized the state owned enterprises army of the former communist regime to tap into. This army could be tapped into by closing down those communist factories and turning this reserve army of former workers of the state owned enterprises towards industry geared to export. What is remarkable, is that, China is doing what was never attempted by other countries: combining internal market and the export market at a single go and not fuelling inflation. The biggest potential problem ahead is that as China grows that fast will 'hit its his head on the ceiling'. At beginning it has just to mobilize the reserve army of the farmer together with the demobilized army of the state owned enterprises, but, as it goes to the next stage, it will needs more Power Point slides producers to sell, it needs to sell services rather than products, it needs more careful planning than the construction export fuelled growth, then they will need another kind of Chinese. They had better get ready for that, for that is when they have to think harder.