re: the decline of American Empire ??
What we are seeing, today, is the last and most exuberant expression of Imperialism, in the form of American soldiers in 120+ countries. From the earliest recorded history, unity and stability over large areas has only been achieved by Force. One tribe gets better at conquest than others, attacks and kills off (or sometimes coopts or assimilates) other tribe's elites, to form a multi-national unit. These units are heirarchical, held together by violence.
Political/military/economic units bigger than one tribe or nation make sense. They produce more trade, more wealth, more efficient divisions of labor. They ensure access to crucial raw materials which aren't locally available (silk, gold, sugar, iron, coal, now oil). Up till very recent historical times, no humans were clever enough to form these larger units by peaceful methods. Some of us are now learning how to do this.
As nuclear weapons steadily spread, from large nations to small nations, and eventually to subnational units, force is no longer a viable method of forming our relationships. As everyone acquires Equalizers, the Strong can no longer bully the Weak.
Europe, after the painfull learning experiences of WW2, WW1, Napolean, the Roman Empire, etc., has finally gained the humility and skills to unify, without Force being the glue holding the multi-national unit together.
China sent, or tried to send, armies across almost all its frontiers, attacking almost all its neighbors, in the period 1950-1979 (Korea, India, Russia, ending with the Vietnam incursion). They've abandoned military expansion, now, in favor of economic expansion, as the route to national power. This trend will be powerfully reinforced, as all China's neighbors get nuclear weapons: India and Russia (and N. Korea?) now, Japan soon, then S. Korea. Taiwan has the capability, and could assemble nuclear weapons on short notice. Vietnam, and the rest of southeast Asia, can probably buy nukes (and the missiles to deliver them with, and the submarines to hide them) on the international arms market, a few years from now, if they see any need to.
When Hamas and the Tibetans get the Bomb (yes, it's only a matter of time before they can buy them on Ebay, US$19.95 apiece, 3 for $49.95, gift-wrapping and delivery free), then Israel and China will have to stop their nasty colonizing habits. Everyone else already has.
Sooner or later, even the U.S. will learn humility. Hopefully, we won't have to learn it the hard way. |
