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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (11422)	10/9/2003 9:15:13 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793843

Random thoughts: Conservatism is getting weird these days. My favorite conservative of all time is William F. Buckley, and George Will is at best a pale imitation. Something like 80-90% of Americans think abortion should be legal in some circumstances and about the same percent think that homosexuality should not be a crime. In a way, I blame Ronnie. He brought all these Religious Right weirdos into the Big Tent, and they started putting their feet on the furniture and spitting into the potted palms and acting like they belong there, instead of a sideshow of their own. In the meantime, abortion and homosexuality have become so accepted in the Main Stream that only a very small percentage of Americans want to make it illegal for other Americans to do something they personally may not like or approve of. If you want to change people's morals, the place to do it is in the pulpit, not the polling place. Especially in California. Best to focus on fiscal conservatism.

To: LindyBill who wrote (11422)	10/9/2003 12:03:21 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793843

I'm rather stunned by the George Will column. I never thought I would say he wrote anything interesting. But this one definitely is. He lays out the terms of a future split between the extreme right of the California Rep Party and Arnold. Sounds very much like an issue that the Californians need to watch. Here's Al Hunt's column for this morning in which he argues that the California results mean absolutely nothing nationally. Not a bad argument. It's interesting to contrast this column with Hunt's good friend Robert Novak's column today. Novak argues something like we are at the funeral of the Dem Party. POLITICS & PEOPLE By AL HUNT Now the Tough Part Begins online.wsj.com Arnold Schwarzenegger doesn't know John Burton -- they shook hands once in California's State Senate chamber -- but he will soon. Mr. Burton is president pro tem of the State Senate, a veteran, tough-talking liberal Democrat who hates phonies. He and the governor-elect should hit it off personally; politically may be another matter. "He'll learn," says Mr. Burton, "this isn't make believe. They're firing real bullets." The movie actor's victory Tuesday was a tremendous triumph personally. His charm was on display in his victory speech, and his toughness was evident in surmounting published charges of sexual harassment from numerous women. He had another huge asset: Gray Davis. Only a little more than a quarter of Californians who went to the polls had a favorable view of the incumbent. That is Nixonian territory. It also is why the national implications of this contest, as Democratic political strategist Bill Carrick had said all along, are "None. Not a one." In reality holding the state house, other than rare occasions like Texas in 1980 or Nevada in 1992, is a hugely overrated factor in presidential races. (Unless there's a recount and your brother is governor.) Indeed, there was a paradoxical reaction yesterday among a few of the smartest politicians in Washington and California. Republicans tempered their euphoria with dire foreboding about what lies ahead in California, while Democrats, lamenting their inept campaigns, nonetheless were relieved that Gray Davis will be gone. None of the state's severe problems have diminished and, on issues other than Gray Davis, Californians remain deeply divided. Even before the polls opened some liberal Democrats were plotting another recall if Mr. Schwarzenegger won; that's a dreadful idea but symbolic of the divides awaiting the new governor. Moreover, the sexual allegations, whether fair or not, won't simply disappear; ask Bill Clinton. The policy and political controversies facing California's new chief executive may make for a very short honeymoon. Yesterday the pro-Schwarzenegger San Diego Union-Tribune editorialized: "The difficulties he faces can hardly be overestimated." Conservatively, Arnold Schwarzenegger will face a $10 billion budget shortfall -- more than all other 49 states combined. He has vowed to avoid tax increases and not to cut state aid to primary and secondary education, which accounts for more than 40% of the budget. This leaves him with a much tougher situation than that facing the last actor-turned-successful-politician, a point captured in the latest book by the great Reagan biographer, Lou Cannon, on the Gipper's Sacramento years. Anyone who believes spending cuts are painless ought to read Mr. Cannon's account of the agony Ronald Reagan went through on mental-health cutbacks. One contemporary illustration is crime. The GOP candidate assailed Gov. Davis for pandering to politically active prison guards with hefty pay raises, but that's just chump change in California's $5.6 billion corrections budget. With the ill-advised three strikes and you're out mandatory sentencing, prisons will continue to get more crowded requiring more resources. But Mr. Schwarzenegger also promised to repeal the automobile-licensing fee. That would cost the state $4 billion in revenues that go to local governments which would be forced to lay off cops and firemen. Any Schwarzenegger budget has to win approval from two-thirds of the Legislature, which is 60% Democratic. The boldest move would be to cut the sort of deal that Gray Davis never cut -- this year's budget was passed with fraudulent short-term gimmicks, which are under court challenges now -- and enact budget reforms that entail major spending cuts and tax increases on those that can afford it. There is a model: Ronald Reagan, who Mr. Cannon reminds us in 1967, as a pragmatic realist, increased state taxes by $1 billion -- $5 billion in today's dollars and in a very progressive fashion. This, Mr. Cannon notes in "Governor Reagan, His Rise to Power" created a fiscal balance that greatly benefited the new Republican governor and marked him, for the first time, as an "accomplished politician." That'd be a lot tougher for Arnold Schwarzenegger in today's climate. The hard-right vote, as represented by Tom McClintock in Tuesday's election, may be only 15%. But any tax increase, some Republican insiders warn, would tear the conservative-dominated party apart. The campaign rhetoric of a 60-day audit to find wasteful spending was just that; Mr. Schwarzenegger has to prepare a new budget before those two months are up. Any legislative deals will be complicated by another inane California "reform" -- term limits, which are reducing the number of experienced legislators while those with experience are figuring out what they're doing after next year; this is not an environment conducive to skillful compromises. The political novice, whose success was personal rather than philosophical or partisan, also has a critical choice of top advisers. He campaigned as an outsider while surrounding himself with aides of the consummate insider, the discredited former Gov. Pete Wilson. "It's always good, especially for a celebrity who doesn't know politics, to have people around him who know what to do," notes Mr. Burton. "But most Republican legislators hate the Wilson people." The new governor and Sen. Burton, the two plain-spoken, salty leaders of their parties in Sacramento, will soon join this struggle. The Democratic legislator strikes one optimistic note -- they have at least one mutual acquaintance: "Jamie Lee Curtis . . . maybe she can broker a deal."

To: LindyBill who wrote (11422)	10/9/2003 12:20:49 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 793843

The put-upon people of California, groaning under the weight of decisions taken by California's electorate, have repeatedly taken lawmaking into their own hands through initiatives that mandate this and that allocation of resources. So an estimated -- no one seems able to say for sure, which says much about the consequences of California populism -- 60 percent to 80 percent of the budget is beyond the control of the governor and Legislature. this indeed crystallizes my perplexity at the california voter... they continue to elect the very people who espouse policy which they find egregious such that they result to plebiscite voting (referendum) to basically overturn their elected representation. it is as though they (the voters) simply cannot accept that they have been sold a bill of liberal goods over the years and simply turn out of office (not simply the administration, but the whole of the majority rule in sacramento) those who espouse policies that are destroying the state. i really don't understand the psychology behind it... the tripling of the car tax was in fact the straw that broke the camel's back (gee after just how long????) and the voters get into a hissyfit and recall the governor.... very similar to prop 13 'we're mad as hell, and we're not gonna take it anymore' yet the electorate continued to reinstall the very people that made such a legislative move possible.. perhaps the election of arnold is the beginning of a sea change....i have my doubts, but one can hope.