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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cooters who wrote (37447)	10/9/2003 8:08:32 PM
From: Jim Mullens	Respond to of 196593

Cooters/ Qveaurichie, two different views on the number of 3G subscribers by Siemens and the GSMA. Cooters, from your article and Siemens’ POV there will be 40 million 3G (WCDMA?) users by the end of 2005, with 60 M added in 2006 bringing the total to 100M and all European handsets 3G capable within 7 years (2010). .....>>>Snip .....The company also unveiled the results of a European consumer survey showing strong .....interest in 3G, and predicted there would be 40 million 3G users in the next two years. ....."According to our forecasts, every mobile handset in Europe will be 3G capable by 2010," said .....Rudi Lamprecht, a member of Siemens' managing board, in a statement. He said there would be 40 .....million 3G users worldwide in 2005 and 100 million in 2006. <<<<< The 3G Americas PR (GSMA) received by email (basis for Charny’s CNET blather) references a link to the EMC (June 2003)World Wireless sub forecast for 2007 which reflects a grand total of 27M WCDMA subs (GSM- 1.392B, CDMA- 422M, TDMA- 184M, etc). >>>>>Snip .....Either view the press release online or read the text below. If you have any questions, please contact .....Vicki Livingston (262-242-3458) or Geena Cabasug (425-372-8922). .....GSM Tops Americas Growth Charts in 2003 .....Updated subscriber charts are available on the 3G Americas website at: www.3gamericas.org/English/Statistics/. <<<<<<< It is also interesting that EMC WCDMA’s forecast just 3 months earlier (3/03) as reflected in Qualcomm’s Spring meeting presentation reflected 30M WCDMA handsets sold in 2004 and an accumulative total of 183M thru 2006. Now (June 2003 report) EMC is forecasting only 27M WCDMA subs by 2007 ye. I find this incredible. The GSM community promised WCDMA networks up and running by the end of 2002 and now they are saying (using EMC) that 5 years after promised commercial launches only 27M of their 1.4B GSM subs will have been converted to 3G WCDMA. What make this even more astounding is in the effort to hang on with/continue to promote their legacy GSM networks in Europe, they are telling the rest of the world (mainly China) that WCDMA will continue to experience delays while at the same time other GSMA officials are in China attempting to promote WCDMA as the dominate standard for their 3G networks. China will be hosting the Olympics in 2008 and they will certainly be wanting to showcase their 3G networks to the rest of the world. In so doing I would imagine that those 3G networks in China would have to be up and running before the end of 2005. By the GSMA saying only 27M WCDMA subs by 2007 (less than 2% of the GSM base) they in effect are telling China that WCDMA will not be ready before 2006 ye. The Chinese MII sure doesn’t believe the GSMA (EMC) forecast as a recent article states “By then (2007), an estimated 15 per cent of the mainland's mobile-phone users would be using 3G (55M of 370M), rising to 80 per cent by 2010 when the pool reaches 600 million. .....2G services (in China) to peak in 2006 .....South China Morning Post .....September 24, 2003 .....Hui Yuk-min in Beijing ..... investorshub.com <<<<<< Seems to me that the Seimens forecast is more correct and that the GSMA continues to talk out of both sides of their mouth. Jmho- jim