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To: Lucretius who wrote (263278)	10/9/2003 4:23:10 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

new highs by monday. sure wouldn't surprise me. from rev shark: Painful Moves 10/09/03 04:04 PM ET My thesis this morning was that the most painful thing the market could do was break out to a new high, trigger stops, suck in new buyers and then fade. Since we don't have a good base from which to launch a new leg upward, the chances of a failed breakout were fairly high. In anticipation of such an event, I sold down long positions aggressively at the open and did more selling as the day progressed. I'm very stingy when it comes to giving back my gains. The question now is, where do we go from here? The action today reminds me a bit of what happened on Aug. 22 after Intel's (INTC:Nasdaq) midquarter update. The news was much better than expected, and Merrill Lynch and several other firms upgraded Intel that morning. The market gapped up strongly but sold off late in the afternoon and went negative. This occurred after a "V" move up over the course of a couple weeks. Volume was heavy, and it looked like classic topping action. So what happened? Do we see some downside follow-through? Nope. We held steady for two days and then ran straight up again. The reversal on big volume was almost completely ignored. There was no downside follow-through at all. Today we have almost the exact same sort of action, except the company in question is Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq), not Intel, and the reversal wasn't as quite as dramatic. Is it different this time? Will we see some downward pressure, or will this market shake off the intraday reversal like it did in August? The biggest positive the bulls have going for them it is that we have a flood of earnings reports coming, and so far, indications are that they will be pretty darn good. It is going to be tough for the bears to really press the downside in front of some of the major reports. Buyers are likely to anticipate good news and hold the market fairly steady. I'd be surprised to see a dramatic selloff in front of earnings. After earnings are out, it will be much easier for the bears to exert some downward pressure. I'm beat. Having my quote service go down on a volatile day like makes life very difficult. I'm probably more inclined to move to the sidelines than I might otherwise be if I hadn't had this sort of stress to deal with. Have a good evening. We have some tricky trading ahead of us, so be ready.