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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (12000)	10/9/2003 8:48:33 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95647

Sarmad, I know you think highly of ALTR and XLNX - others do as well, but the brokerages and analysts are not giving them increases in earnings estimates, etc, that some of the other stocks in the SOX are getting. The following table shows the earnings estimate changes for the past 5 weeks for the SOX. - DATA FROM FIRST CALL - 09/04/03 10/9/03 - EARNINGS EST EARNINGS EST EARNINGS CHG SYMBOL CURR YR NEXT YR CURR YR NEXT YR CURR YR NEXT YR ALTR 0.39 0.48 0.39 0.48 AMAT 0.13 0.46 0.13 0.46 AMD -1.43 -0.28 -1.39 -0.24 0.04 0.04 BRCM 0.43 0.65 0.43 0.64 -0.01 INTC 0.75 1.01 0.77 1.05 0.02 0.04 KLAC 1.03 1.80 1.03 1.86 0.06 LLTC 0.91 1.07 0.91 1.08 0.01 LSI -0.08 0.27 -0.08 0.26 -0.01 MOT 0.17 0.39 0.17 0.40 0.01 MU -1.99 -0.37 -0.16 0.86 1.83 1.23 MXIM 1.13 1.36 1.12 1.39 -0.01 0.03 NSM 0.72 1.11 1.06 1.42 0.34 0.31 NVLS 0.18 0.67 0.18 0.68 0.01 STM 0.43 0.80 0.43 0.82 0.02 TER -0.60 0.46 -0.60 0.45 -0.01 TSM 0.29 0.47 0.31 0.49 0.02 0.02 TXN 0.33 0.64 0.34 0.67 0.01 0.03 XLNX 0.65 0.88 0.65 0.88 TOTAL 3.44 11.87 5.69 13.65 2.25 1.78 At the bottom line the increase is due mostly to the big change in MU due to its "rolling over" "next year" to "this year" and a new "next year" earnings estimate. However, note that ALTR and XLNX have had no increase in earnings estimate over the past 5 weeks while many other stocks have had both their "this year" and "next year" earnings estimates increased. Also, note that LSI has had a 0.01 decrease in earnings estimate for "next year". For whatever reason - and I have no clue what it is - these stocks are not in favor right now. Don

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (12000)	10/10/2003 10:43:39 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 95647

This may help explain why ALTR was weak for the past few sessions. This came out TODAY, but I am sure nobody would take advantage of that sooner, would they? 9:48AM ALTR: Lowering est as we remained concerned about sluggish end demand -- JP Morgan 18.17 -0.03: Due to a strong beginning to the quarter, JP Morgan expects ALTR to meet firm's 3Q revenue and EPS estimates of $210.0 mln and $0.10, respectively. Despite a strong uptake of new products, firm remains concerned about sluggish end demand and is lowering its C03 revenue and EPS estimates from $830.3 mln and $0.38 to $820.3 mln and $0.37. Firm also lowering its C04 revenue and EPS estimates from $995.0 mln and $0.47 to $955.0 mln and $0.46, respectively.