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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (39419)	10/9/2003 11:49:47 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

elmat: >>AC long time no hear!<< I prefer my social interactions 3D, for the most part. >>"Recover" will last until next US presidential election<< You will be amazed at how inaccurate that perception will turn out to be. The US and much of the rest of the global economy is midway through one of the recurring, once-a-generation surges in livings standards and quality of life. We are experiencing a unique confluence of positive technological, economic and political forces. That this is not apparent to many is a forest/trees type phenomenon. Your apparent concern with increases in the US money supply, the twin US deficits, budget and trade, and levels of consumer indebtedness are waaaaaay overdone. If excess liquidity was truly a problem, we would have rampant inflation - ask the Austrians. We do not, ergo Uncle Al has it right. In fact, Uncle Al is using carefully calculated monetary inflation to offset powerful underlying deflationary forces. The US budget deficit is primarily a domestic political issue, fixable overnight with the right political will, and in any case is pocket change for the US. Put aside the hysterical rhetoric and the facts are that the US budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is in line with that of other Western nations. The trade deficit is offset by a capital account surplus and is also prone to exaggeration due to various accounting glitches. It is also amenable to redress via floating exchange rates. My Canadian customers are delighted, for example, that their prices have fallen about 15% lately. Finally, excess consumer debt (whatever that is) will be taken care of in an ongoing and orderly way by the traditional methods of workouts, bankruptcy and foreclosure. No economic discontinuity is imminent or required in this regard. The only cloud on the economic horizon is the upcoming secular decline in final demand at the end of the decade in the baby boom countries - the US, the UK, Australia and New Zealand, and parts of Europe. The impact of this will be offset in the US by immigration and also by a phenomenal inter-generational wealth transfer. We'll see how it plays out. How about I throw you a bone, elmat. Here's a little data that I have not yet seen widely disseminated. "Luxury" residential real estate is rolling over, with significant price declines in some markets. realestatejournal.com Don't get too excited, this is more likely a result of the trailing edge of the 2000 biotelecosmic.com bust and not the leading edge of the upcoming end-of-decade (2009) meltdown in high-end residential real estate. Mid to low-end residential real estate will do just fine 'til 2009. Iraq's a sideshow. No relevance to anything. Keeps the liberal media busy though. Never seen so many Monday-morning quarterbacks. Oh, but I do think that the US has done a good thing. Let's ask the average Iraqi in a year or two.