Surprise, surprise! A fairly positive article on Iraq out of the "Times". Things must be really looking up!
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October 10, 2003
NEWS ANALYSIS
Iraq Math: Visible Gains Minus Losses
By IAN FISHER
NewsAnalysis
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Oct. 9 — It was a symbol of Iraq, six months to the day after United States marines ripped down the statue of Saddam Hussein and America set out on its experiment to rebuild a democratic Iraq in the land it had just conquered.
Early Thursday morning, about 50 new Iraqi police officers in sharp blue uniforms stood waiting for their American-paid salaries before going out on patrol. The sight of Iraqis policing their own streets is perhaps the most visible of American successes here.
But then came crashing through the front gate the chaos that America has not been able to control: a suicide bomber who detonated an Oldsmobile — by chance, an American classic — in the crowd of policemen. At least nine people were killed, including the bomber.
This was not the best day to trumpet America's accomplishments in these first six months. But the job fell nonetheless to L. Paul Bremer III, the American civilian administrator here, and he argued that whatever the problems, the changes in Iraq have been positive.
"There will be bumps on the road," Mr. Bremer told reporters on Thursday. "There will be bad days like today. But I think it's important, as those of you who are here regularly covering the story, to put that in perspective, because it's a lot better than it was."
Still, the events of today underscored the limits of the huge American effort here, illustrating how the steady beat of violence and uncertainty overshadows many of the very real American advances here.
That mixed record is reflected in the view of many Iraqis. They believe that the United States has, in fact, made Iraq better than under Mr. Hussein but that American promises, so far, have been greater than what has been delivered.
"I know they came to help me," Dr. Ghasan Azawi, 61, said of the Americans. "But they should show their help more."
A surgeon, he was fired from the army by Mr. Hussein. Since Mr. Hussein's overthrow, his car has been stolen and he has taken two bullets from the thieves.
In his news conference, Mr. Bremer listed what he called America's achievements (although many of his comparisons were from immediately after the war, when services were far worse than before it began): 40,000 police officers on the streets; 13,000 new reconstruction projects; more electricity generated now than before the war; 1,500 schools renovated; 22 million vaccinations; 4,900 Internet connections — not to mention freedom of speech, virtually nonexistent under Mr. Hussein, and an end to torture, which was commonplace.
"I am optimistic," Mr. Bremer said. "We have made an enormous amount of progress here in six months, more than I think anybody could have safely predicted, in many places beyond what our plan was."
The changes are visible. The streets are cleaner. Shops are flooded with goods pouring into Iraq now that the borders are open again. Those who have jobs — and tens of thousands are working for the Americans, directly or indirectly — are largely paid better than they were.
But as the attack on Thursday again showed, there is another list of statistics: 92 American soldiers killed in combat since President Bush declared major hostilities over in May; nearly 100 dead at a suicide bombing at a Shiite shrine in Najaf; 22 dead at a bombing at the United Nations headquarters here; at least 17 dead in a bombing at the Jordanian Embassy.
The fear of this violence is visible as well: American officials and the contractors they hired to rebuild Iraq live and work behind huge concrete walls.
Many aid workers have been sent home. Anyone working directly for the Americans or those, like the police, who are merely making a living under a new system, are targets. Last month, a member of the Iraqi Governing Council, Akila al-Hashemi, was assassinated, apparently for siding with America's effort here.
Mr. Bremer sought, to some degree, to play down the significance of the violence. Ninety percent of the attacks, he noted, occur in only 5 percent of Iraq.
"They pose no strategic threat to the coalition or to its forces," he said. "We are dealing with that threat on a virtually daily basis, rounding up killers, the trained torturers of the Fedayeen Saddam, the intelligence services."
But this statement seemed to ignore the psychological impact of the violence, which is felt not on 5 percent of the territory, but throughout the country.
Mr. Bremer suggested that America could handle the job in Iraq. But the Bush administration will find it hard to claim victory as long Iraq remains so unsafe that not even the United Nations can work at anything like full capacity.
Many military experts fear that one calamitous terror strike — killing many American soldiers as did those in Beirut in 1983 or in Saudi Arabia in 1996 — could still bring the whole Iraq operation into question.
Even if he played down the violence, Mr. Bremer acknowledged that the task of rebuilding Iraq had turned out to be far greater than expected, because of decades of neglect under Mr. Hussein. So, he said, it is important that Congress approve the full $20 billion Mr. Bush has requested for reconstruction — for electricity, water, a new Iraqi army.
Occupation authorities believe that may be the key to ending the violence: raising the standard of living and convincing Iraqis, maybe even some of those fighting now, that the American operation has been worth the pain. But, as Mr. Bremer noted, the huge task of reconstruction will not come "overnight."
In fact, after six months, one thing seems clear in the general confusion of Iraq: The American project will measured over years, or even decades, and to see it through, to ensure that there is no going back, American soldiers will probably be needed.
nytimes.com |
