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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve168 who wrote (17845)	10/10/2003 1:19:34 PM
From: mikeslemmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78507

Re: ALVR Selling routines are always difficult to figure, but there is statistical evidence which argues against your approach. For instance, in David Dreman's books on contrarian investing, statistical models which purchased low P/BV and P/E stocks and held them long term did somewhat worse than those which rotated when P/BV and P/E reached industry or market average levels. PHTN and SINA are examples where the former strategy works, but there are just as many examples where investors have taken round trips. In fact, according to Dreman, the round trip is statistically the more likely scenario. Personally, I have no feel for how the market will price a company once it has exceeded intrinsic value. So, I prefer to keep my chips on the side of the table where the statistics favor me.