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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (39468)	10/11/2003 2:16:44 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 74559

Hi Malcolm - I should emphasize that long term capital gains have been enormous - enough to move the savings rate serveral percent. Credit card debt numbers are also somewhat inflated as was previously discussed, with corporate travel expenses showing up as personal debt. Also, the entire move to away from cash in many countires shold produce higher credit card balances. With cash back, frequent flyer, and other incentives, this should be expected. I have invested in Japan funds, and have benefited from the currency rise and the the gain in the stocks. Looks like there is still some room for the Yen to go higher. Some currency trades on Bloomberg expect a range between 105 and 110. Currently at 110. Look at the charts of- EWJ (i-shares Japan ETF) siliconinvestor.com MJFOX, a Japan mutual fund which is heavy on finacials instead of exporters siliconinvestor.com and FJSCX, a small cap Japan fund from Fidelity. siliconinvestor.com I own all three, and recently purchased FJSCX.

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (39468)	10/11/2003 2:35:30 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Malcolm - I want to take another post to address the second half of your post. Safer to invest outside the US - For many things, certainly the average business, I would agree. In addtion to the balance of payments issues, there is the excessive litagation problem (easily an economic drag equal to 2-4 % of GDP), and some seriously under funded pension obligations. As the numbers of "good jobs" shrink, I think we will see more efforts at litagation reform, reduction of barriers to business, efforts to retain jobs in the US, and about a 20 to 50 % effective devaluation of the US dollar over the next 5-7 years. Most of my portfolio is in - 1) Natural resources Gas, oil, Metals, - inside the US or elsewhere - this is a bet on the decline of the USD dollar in addtion to commodity scarcity. 2)Foreign funds or stocks, usually Asia, some times Canada or Austrailia. 3) Specialized areas where there is still a US advantage, lkike Biotech, specialized semiconductors, specialized software. 4) Special situations, like Reliant RRI an electric utility.