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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (12028)	10/11/2003 9:33:21 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95397

True, but it you are risk averse and don't try to buy low and sell some high, then wouldn't owning an index be better if all you get is index returns? Put another way: If you are getting index matching returns while taking specific stock risk, then it doesn't seem you are being fairly compensated for the extra risk with NVLS. I own AMAT and ask myself that question. My POTENTIAL answer is AMAT is like a mini fund of the smaller companies as it is a leader in many of the tools. NVLS is not so large. It has a smaller sub set of tools and its integration of SFAM's CMP platform has hurt its overall results. Also, if you look at Don's PEG table Message 19391060 it shows AMAT at 2.22 and LRCX at 1.33. This is saying that, all else being equal, LRCX is a better buy even after it went up 290% from the bottom vs AMAT's 99% gain. I know LRCX is already into FY'04 so this may distort the PEG numbers and make LRCX look better. A PEG analysis based on the next 4 quarters would be better, but it is a ton of work to do. UTEK went up even more (346%)and only has a PEG of 1.80 so it still looks better than AMAT. I guess what I am pointing out is some of you have jumped on Cary's bandwagon for his list of stocks. He has suggested I "upgrade" my stocks (UTEK and LRCX) to his list but if I had done so, I'd not have had the same good results. Perhaps the time to "upgrade" is at market cycle tops since it gives you protection on the downside. But, this implies you can call tops. My theory is you make more money buying and selling around a core position if you use some of the lessor known names as you get more volatility. Kirk

To: Return to Sender who wrote (12028)	10/12/2003 10:17:09 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95397

Machine Tool Demand Up 16.6 Pct in August CapX recovery starts somewhere biz.yahoo.com Reuters Machine Tool Demand Up 16.6 Pct in August Sunday October 12, 6:11 pm ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. machine tool demand rose 16.6 percent in August from the prior month, two industry trade groups said in a joint report on Sunday that showed the manufacturing sector is beginning to pick up momentum. The American Machine Tool Distributors' Association and the Association for Manufacturing Technology said U.S. August machine tool demand edged higher to $150.99 million from a revised $129.55 million in July that was reported at $157.06 million a month earlier. August demand, however, was down 3.2 percent from $155.93 million a year earlier in August 2002. In addition, overall tool demand in 2003 through the first eight months of the year had declined 16.1 percent to $1.226 billion from $1.461 billion in the same period a year ago, the joint report said. Even though consumption has lagged most of the year, the trade groups said there are signs machine tool demand has begun to improve. "August orders and increased output among many of our customers appear to be signaling an end to the decline in manufacturing technology investments," John Byrd, president of the AMT, said in a statement. "While a capital spending recovery has not yet begun, better times certainly seem to be on the horizon," said Byrd. Machine tools are used to shape metal for such products as car engines, refrigerators and television sets. Demand for these tools can provide a leading indicator of the pace of manufacturing. The machine tools report is generally based on a survey of about 200 manufacturers, distributors and importers of machine tools that represent 76 percent of the machine tool market.