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To: JohnM who wrote (11750)10/10/2003 11:58:33 PM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793914
 
Josh Marshall and consider why it's important to do so. Lots of Ps and Qs to be watched.

That's what you need in a Press Secretary. Someone who can "parse" on their feet. As I have said before, after reading you and Josh on the plame affair, I have to wipe your drool off the screen.



To: JohnM who wrote (11750)10/11/2003 12:03:30 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793914
 
Cute bit from "Best of the Web"
_____________________

The Cognitive Elite
It's been nine years since Charles Murray and the late Richard Herrnstein published "The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life," in which they argued that American society has become stratified along lines of intelligence, so that a "cognitive elite" consisting of people with high IQs who enjoy levels of wealth and power far disproportionate to their numbers. (The book was hugely controversial because of its section on the radioactive subject of racial disparities in IQ scores, but the cognitive-elite argument did not depend on the race section.)

The emergence of a cognitive elite may be inevitable in a knowledge-based economy, but it is a development Murray and Herrnstein viewed with considerable concern. What's fascinating is that liberals, who denounced Murray and Herrnstein over the racial aspect of their book, seem to view rule by the cognitive elite as the natural order of things. And of course they think they are the cognitive elite. We saw this in Jonathan Chait's Bush-hating cover story last month in The New Republic (which was, but is no longer, available online), in which Chait opined that the "striving, educated elite" views the president, because of his success despite his "dullness," as "an affront to the values of the liberal meritocracy." (In 1994 TNR devoted an entire issue to a series of essays on "The Bell Curve"; views ranged from harsh criticism to furious denunciation.)

The same phenomenon is evident in the reaction to Arnold Schwarzenegger's election as governor of California. The Oakland Tribune reports that state Sen. John Vasconcellos, a San Jose Democrat, has called the governor-elect "a boob" and is threatening to leave office on the grounds that he's too good for Californians: "If people want this actor to govern . . . they don't need or deserve me."

Sacramento Bee blogger Dan Weintraub has an interview with another Democratic state senator, Sheila Kuhl of Santa Monica, who opines that it's up to the Senate "to save the state." When Weintraub asks "from what?" Kuhl replies: "From ignorance. This guy has no idea how to run a state." She tells Weintraub she may skip the governor's State of the State speech, "because frankly I don't think there is going to be a lot of content that anyone's interested in. What's this guy got to say to us about the state of the state? Nothing."

And it's not just elected officials. The San Francisco Chronicle hits the streets of the Bay Area, where voters favored keeping Gray Davis in office, and manages to find one Sydney Webster of Oakland, a self-described "hair-color diva," who opines that Bay Area residents are simply "smarter" than people elsewhere in the state.

There's no reason to think that liberals actually are smarter than conservatives; there is plenty of brainpower on the political right. And surely Bush's and Schwarzenegger's detractors are mistaken when they characterize them as dull. The president, after all, is a graduate of both Yale and Harvard, and the governor-elect is a self-made immigrant businessman. It is possible for very intelligent people not to be snobs about it, not to adopt the pose of an "intellectual," and that would seem to describe both Bush and Schwarzenegger.

Some liberals also tend to overestimate their own intelligence. Consider this post from the Angry Left Web site DemocraticUnderground.com:

I would dare to assume that most of us here are in the upper 1%-20% of the population intelligence-wise. We must come to the realization that the majority of the population is in the lower 80% to 99% percent of the bell-curve. WE are not the norm. The Republicans understand that the average American is not very bright. They cater and pander to the masses. The Democratic Party tries to appeal to the population about "issues" that these people just don't understand.

If it comes as a revelation to the Democratic Undergrounders that 20% is less than a majority, they're not exactly rocket scientists, are they?
opinionjournal.com



To: JohnM who wrote (11750)10/11/2003 12:36:36 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 793914
 
It's "Hot Stove" time, folks. We can argue about this kind of thing until the primaries heat up. Money quote. "I think the country right now continues to get more conservative on economic issues and more progressive on social issues. I think Schwarzenegger is ahead of the curve."
__________________________________


Republicans Ponder the Center
By ADAM NAGOURNEY

SAN JOSE, Calif., Oct. 10 — In Arnold Schwarzenegger, the national Republican Party now has a magnetic movie star in charge of the most populous state in the union, a governor-elect who has already emerged as an articulate, media-savvy and earnest figure who does not play by the conventional rules of politics.

But far from simply rejoicing over his election, the party finds itself entangled in a debate over whether it should follow Mr. Schwarzenegger's path by moving to the center on social issues in order to become even more competitive in state and national races.

Mr. Schwarzenegger's sweeping victory stirred anxiety among some conservatives, as much as it has cheered moderate Republicans, who have seized on it as evidence of how the party should position itself to fortify its standing, even at a time when it has proved increasingly dominant in American politics.

Several moderate Republicans said Mr. Schwarzenegger was now in a position to be a hugely influential and moderating force on his party, should he choose to be.

"How he won tells me that his message — he's both fiscally conservative and socially inclusive and moderate — was one that appeals to the middle," said Christie Whitman, a moderate Republican and former New Jersey governor who recently stepped down as head of the Environmental Protection Agency.

"To me, it's a very strong signal to win statewide in a state like California," Mrs. Whitman said on Friday. "It's a socially inclusive message, but not hard-edged and leaving-people-out. And I think that's a national thing."

William F. Weld, the former Republican governor of Massachusetts, said: "There's a lesson here for the national party. This absolutely takes the curse of the stereotype off of Republicans that the opposition seeks to hang around their necks."

That argument has run up against stiff opposition from other prominent Republicans. Some suggested that moderates were seizing on an anomalous election — a movie star defeating a highly unpopular incumbent in a largely Democratic state — to try to relight the coals of an old fire.

"I don't think that's a fair lesson, because I think this election was more about Gray Davis and less about the particular ideological stands of the candidates," said Matt Dowd, a senior adviser to President Bush's re-election campaign. "If Arnold Schwarzenegger had been a celebrity politician that was pro-life, I don't think he would have gotten any less votes."

Stephen Moore, president of the Club for Growth, a conservative group, said Mr. Schwarzenegger's victory was more of a lesson about how to win a state like California than about what the party should do nationally. "I don't think this means that the party nationally should move to the center in any way," he said. "The party that has to do some soul-searching right now is the Democratic Party."

To a large extent, what is taking place now is a replay of an old fight that President Bush adroitly managed, Republicans said, by positioning himself as a "compassionate conservative," while embracing traditional conservative positions on issues like abortion rights and gay marriage.

But the difference is Mr. Schwarzenegger, who like another actor who became governor of California, is proving that acting skills can be transferred to the business of politics. In the flush of his victory, several Republicans went so far as to talk him up a future presidential candidate — a move is already afoot in Washington to start the cumbersome process of amending the Constitution to remove the prohibition on foreign-born citizens serving as president.

As unlikely as that would seem, Mr. Schwarzenegger's success and his new prominence in national politics seems likely to complicate Mr. Bush's efforts to balance the conservative and moderate wings of his party. He is a more compelling public figure than some of the other moderate voices in the party — in particular, Gov. George E. Pataki of New York and Rudolph W. Giuliani — and he is certain to be awarded a prime speaking slot at next year's Republican convention in New York.

Joe Scarborough, a former Republican congressman from Florida who is now a television commentator, said the White House would be wise to take a lesson from Mr. Schwarzenegger's victory, noting the close 2000 presidential race and the number of states that were decided by a relatively handful of votes.

Asked whether he thought it was a good idea for the party to move to the center, Mr. Scarborough, who described himself as conservative, responded, "If I'm a strategist, then yeah.

"I think the country right now continues to get more conservative on economic issues and more progressive on social issues. I think Schwarzenegger is ahead of the curve."

According to a New York Times/CBS News poll taken July 13 through July 27, Republicans are generally supportive of abortion rights; 22 percent said that abortion should be generally available, and another 41 percent said it should be available under stricter limits. Republicans are divided on homosexual relations.

Rick Davis, a Republican consultant who advised another prominent moderate Republican, Senator John McCain of Arizona, when he ran for president in 2000, said he viewed the California election as evidence that "there is a pendulum swinging."

"Our party for the last 10 years has tried to run off the moderates," Mr. Davis said. "But it's happening without them."

Steven A. Merksamer, a lawyer in Sacramento who is active in Republican politics, said a big factor in Mr. Schwarzenegger's success was his celebrity, but he added: "His campaign can be a model for Republicans. I'll tell you this: Arnold Schwarzenegger succeeded in uniting the California Republican Party in a way it hasn't been united for years."

Not surprisingly, Mr. Schwarzenegger's victory has created mixed feelings among many conservatives. On one hand, many are delighted that the Republican Party has captured such a huge prize the year before a presidential race.

Yet many have expressed hesitation about this new symbol of the party, questioning his ideological bona fides and wondering how the party could embrace someone who was confronted with accusations that he groped and made lewd comments to more than a dozen women.

"These Schwarzenegger conservatives — now, there is an oxymoron for these times — have embraced a man who is, politically, Hollywood's culture leavened by a few paragraphs of Milton Friedman," George Will, the conservative columnist, wrote this week.

"Schwarzenegger's conservative supporters have furled the flag of `family values' while mocking their participation in the anti-Clinton sex posse," Mr. Will wrote. "They were unoffended by Schwarzenegger's flippant assertions that only the `religiously fanatic' oppose human cloning — not just stem cell research, but cloning."

For all that, there is no reason to believe, at this point, that Mr. Schwarzenegger is looking to do anything outside California. As several Republicans noted, he has more than enough work to do taking over this state, and he spent much more time in his campaign talking about cutting taxes than about his support for, say, abortion rights.

"He's got some real challenges right now," Mrs. Whitman said.
nytimes.com



To: JohnM who wrote (11750)10/11/2003 1:51:36 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 793914
 
Andrew Sullivan gets "Imminent" with "Frontline" again.
____________________________
FRONTLINE CONCEDES: Here's a fascinating encounter with the producer of the Frontline special on the war against Saddam, Martin Smith. It's from the Washington Post's online chat today:

Boston, Mass: Why did Martin Smith at least twice say while conducting an interview in the program that "Americans were sold this war as an imminent threat..." That is a bold face lie, an untruth from beginning to end. In President Bush's state of the union speech, he specifically countered that argument by in essence saying we cannot afford to wait until the threat from Iraq is imminent. For a program with Truth in it's title, that's a big slip up and I heard Mr. Smith say it at least twice.

Martin Smith: I'm glad you asked this question. I believe I may have used the term "imminent threat" more than twice. If you go back to the records you will see that while the president does not use the exact phrase, he talks about a "grave and gathering danger." He talks about Saddam's ability to launch chemical or biological weapons in 45 minutes.

No one that I spoke to in the administration who supported the war quibbled with the use of the term "imminent threat." It's simply not a quotation - it's a summary of the president's assessment.

Boston, Mass: No, Martin: it's a bold face lie, an untruth from beginning to end.

Good for you, Mr Boston. What we see here is that Smith has interpreted what the administration said before the war to be an "imminent threat." But the only time I know of that the exact phrase was used was in president Bush's critical State of the Union address before the war. And in that speech, this is what Bush said:

"Some have said we must not act until the threat is imminent. Since when have terrorists and tyrants announced their intentions, politely putting us on notice before they strike? If this threat is permitted to fully and suddenly emerge, all actions, all words, and all recriminations would come too late. Trusting in the sanity and restraint of Saddam Hussein is not a strategy, and it is not an option."

Yes, that is a "grave and gathering danger." But it is not "imminent." In fact, it specifically makes a distinction that Smith's propaganda elides. Think I'm as biased as Smith? Here's how the leading anti-war Democrat - yes, Howard Dean - described Bush's position on September 29, 2002: "The president has never said that Saddam has the capability of striking the United States with atomic or biological weapons any time in the immediate future." I would say that "any time in the immediate future" is as good a definition as any of the word "imminent." So was even Howard Dean spinning for Bush? Of course not. He was summing up the simple truth. Smith is distorting the historical record to make a fake case against the administration. Perhaps it was intentional; perhaps he was just so blinded by liberal bias he even believed his own untruths. But this time, he's been caught.
andrewsullivan.com



To: JohnM who wrote (11750)10/11/2003 9:35:34 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793914
 
I wasn't going to post this inflammatory lead in the "Times" until I read this Professors blog about it. Nice to have a PHD in Communications who is tenured available for comment. He must be tenured, or he wouldn't last writing things like this about the "Times" I am really growing to love "Blogs".
"Ranting Professors."
________________________________________

THE NEW YORK TIMES BACKPEDALS -- ON THE JUMP Well the New York Times backs down from its claim that most of the two million people in Sadr City follow the cleric al-Sadr. But the followers of Sadr in Sadr City are the new threat, and that means the Shiia are now a threat, thank you very much. (I love the part of the article where they note that the primary threats had been common criminals and Baathist remnants. They aren't even willing to put foreign fighters on the list.) That's whats on the front page above the fold.

On the jump, they backpedal in a big way. Well, not everyone follows Sadr, he's young, he doesn't have that much influence, so on and so forth (that difference between the tone of what's on the front page and the direction the article takes on the jump, that's one of the benefits of looking at the article in paper version.) In fact, Najaf, where Sadr is headquartered is so quiet, the US Marines have gone home and handed off that town to a combination of Iraqis and Spaniards, so it would have been awfully hard to sustain a theory Sadr had much more influence than he does. But it's still the lead article above the fold, still a story that Sadr is making big time trouble, still giving Sadr an enormous amount of attention -- and therefore being picked up by broadcast. And broadcast has a tendency, when they pick up Times stories, to pick up the jist from above the fold, not the overall nuance of the article. (And you have to believe they know that.)

But before we all decide the Times is onto something, we should reread Pam Hess's piece from September. Hess has the context of the situation, from Najaf. So read (or reread) her piece and then ask yourself -- is the Times reporter giving us information that would explain why the situation on the ground has changed? If not, then they have a story about Sadr's ten thousand Baghdad followers protesting, and their claim that the entire area is about to go up in flames remains their prediction, which may or may not play out, but which isn't yet supported by what they have reported. And all they are doing is giving a troublemaker the attention he desires for a p.r. stunt.
rantingprofs.blogspot.com
___________________________________

October 11, 2003
Iraqi Shiite Anger Raises New Fears for U.S. Soldiers
By IAN FISHER - NEW YORK TIMES

BAGHDAD, Iraq, Oct. 10 — Shiite Muslim anger against Americans spilled into Friday Prayers in Sadr City, the poor Baghdad district where two Iraqis and two American soldiers were killed Thursday night.

The violence and subsequent public outrage raised fears of new dangers to United States troops from the followers of Moktada al-Sadr, a young anti-American Shiite cleric. Up to now, the main threat to American forces has come from loyalists to Saddam Hussein.

A seething throng of perhaps 10,000 people gathered on Friday to pay respects to the two men they believe were killed by American forces the night before.

"No, no, to America!" they chanted as wooden coffins holding the remains of the men were paraded along a main street in this impoverished neighborhood of some two million people, once called Saddam City and now renamed Sadr City in part for Mr. Sadr's father, a popular cleric who was assassinated in 1999 on what many believe were Mr. Hussein's orders.

Sheik Abdel Hadi al-Daraji, an aide to the younger Mr. Sadr, delivered the sermon at Friday Prayers and issued a defiant demand: no American soldiers should be allowed inside Sadr City.

"America, which calls itself the supporter of democracy, is nothing but a big terrorist organization that is leading the world with its terrorism and arrogance," Mr. Daraji said.

For the last six months, the greatest threat to United States soldiers has come from common criminals or loyalists to Mr. Hussein, who belongs to the Sunni branch of Islam, a minority in Iraq. The Shiites, who were repressed under Mr. Hussein, have been more supportive and have rarely been thought responsible for attacks on American soldiers.

But tensions have been growing for several days between American troops and Mr. Sadr's followers, who represent only a fraction of Iraq's majority Shiite population. If the Shiites turned in large numbers against the American occupation, the effect could be explosive.

On Wednesday, 1,000 or more of Mr. Sadr's followers blocked off streets in front of the American headquarters in downtown Baghdad in a tense but largely peaceful demonstration demanding the release of another cleric allied with Mr. Sadr.

The cleric had been arrested after guns and ammunition were found in his mosque, according to Lt. Col. George Krivo, an American military spokesman.

The Jump

Despite the visibility of Mr. Sadr's followers, there is some debate about the extent of his actual influence among Shiites, many of whom follow more moderate religious leaders. It is not hard to find people, even in Sadr City, who speak openly against Mr. Sadr.

"You put a badge on your chest and wrap a piece of green cloth on your head and you become the defender of the faith," said Saad Khudair, owner of a barbershop. "It's not right. They are thugs."

Colonel Krivo also cautioned against making too much of either the incident or Mr. Sadr, who is about 30, and his followers, many of whom are poor young men without jobs.

"Let's not paint the whole area, or the whole two million plus people who are living there, with the same brush," he said. "There are specific areas there that are challenging, just as there are specific areas throughout the country that are challenging. So be careful not to generalize too much about this area."

The spark for the recent violence appeared to be a suicide attack on Thursday morning at an Iraqi police station, in which a bomber crashed through a gate in a car and detonated a powerful bomb, killing at least eight other people.

Several hours later, United States troops surrounded Mr. Sadr's headquarters several blocks away. Local residents and clerics said that the soldiers entered the headquarters and that several of them were beaten up and had their guns taken away.

Iraqi witnesses said that militia members then blocked off the street in front of the headquarters, and that a short time later three Humvees with Americans drove up to the blockade.

Accounts differ as to what happened next. Colonel Krivo said the soldiers arrived after several people requested aid.

"There were some people that came out, met with the forces and said, `Please come in. We need to show you something important,' " he said. It was at that point that people in the crowd attacked, the colonel said.

In addition to the two American soldiers who were killed, four others were wounded. Colonel Krivo said a special unit was called in to rescue them, sparking an exchange of gunfire that witnesses said lasted an hour or more.

"From our reports, we believe this was a deliberate and planned ambush," Colonel Krivo said. "This was not just a hasty act."

The soldiers faced an arsenal of weapons that included small arms and rocket-propelled grenades, as well as explosives, Colonel Krivo added.

But many people in the neighborhood said the soldiers fired first.

"The Americans started shooting randomly," said Hassan Khadhim, 22, owner of a shop next to where the shootout took place. "Mostly, they were shooting in the air to frighten people. So our people shot back at them."

Some witnesses, however, agreed that it was an ambush.

"Moktada's people were hiding behind the mural waiting for them," said Muhammad Kadhim, 31, a post office employee. "When the Americans came they started shooting at them, and all the Americans were trying to do was just to leave."

The mural to which he referred is a huge billboard on a traffic circle painted with the faces of Mr. Sadr's father, Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr, and Muhammad Baqr al-Sadr, an Islamic scholar and founder of the religious Dawa Party who was executed by Mr. Hussein in 1980. The two men were not immediately related. One of the two Iraqis killed Thursday night was shot at the base of the mural, witnesses said.

Despite the proximity of the bombing and the later shootout, Colonel Krivo said there was no evidence to suggest they were linked in any way, though he said he could not rule it out.

Given the similarity to previous bombings, suspicion fell immediately on pro-Hussein forces or foreign fighters who have come to Iraq to battle Americans and who are generally held to be responsible for much of the chaos in Iraq.

Colonel Krivo said that American troops would continue patrols in Sadr City, and that he did not believe the incident on Thursday marked the start of any widening confrontation.

Still, a confrontation with Mr. Sadr and his followers does not seem out of the question.

American officials have long eyed him with concern, for his anti-American oratory, his close ties with radical clerics in Iran and his insistence on establishing an Islamic state in Iraq.

Perhaps the biggest concern is his militia, the Jaish Mehdi. Though the American authorities have banned militias, his followers have roamed the streets of the neighborhood over the last two days carrying rifles — some apparently those that were donated by Americans to Iraqi police officers — grenades and even rocket-propelled grenades.

At Friday Prayers they acted as armed security guards, some planted on rooftops with machine guns. One man surveyed the crowd with a telescope.

There was no Iraqi police officer in sight.
nytimes.com