Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Trading with Jerry Olson(OJ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1246)	10/19/2003 4:36:41 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1617

here's my newsletter from Oct 5th...i warn you to be ultra careful long here..use stops at all times. =========================================================== JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED OCT 5TH 2003 "DIP BUYERS & SHOPPERS GALORE" Hello out there my favorite trading buddies on this gorgeous day here in good ole Philly. Man it's great to be alive. I want to wish my Jewish Friends and their families a Happy New Year as we end this holiday On Monday Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the year for Jews. In my last newsletter heading line I stated Pullback or Correction? Guess what?, that was one perfect Pullback folks. We saw dip buyers come out of the woodwork to buy that dip with high volume vengeance. What kind of surprised the street was that crazy employment report it showed growth for the 1st time in eons. Up up and away went the market on Friday like a scared rabbit. Or should I say sacred short. Geez they've been decimated for so long here. Guess what folks they are still hollering crash! crash? what crash? I wish people would just learn to trade what's in front of their faces more. They continue to listen to the soothsayers, those Mystic Merlins trying to "predict" something. Predict what? Armageddon? Look ignore all that noise. Trade the charts and make money... Ingrain that in your head ok? I've gotten many e-mails and private messages about hugh losses being short over the last 2-3 months or so. Thats not good. If you're biased here your dead. The problem is that a lot of traders continue to READ others that give opinions that have little or no merit..I don't care who they are. Charts are the keys to the kingdom. Trade just those squiggly little candlesticks or those X's and O's and THEY will tell you where we're going. How can anyone predict next month, next quarter next year? You tell me. It's tough enough to predict tomorrow's trading let alone what's going to happen next quarter. Heck folks we're short term oriented here. I am trying to change your overall mentality from that of a buy and holder to that of a daytrader. We can make more points trading a given stock in a month then people can make holding for 1 year or more. The bonus is we can sleep at night. We have cash to use intraday everyday without fear. We can continue to build our trading capital up to any limit we choose. It took me years to understand this way of investing trading..call it what you wish. Does not matter to me. We love it, eat it, sleep it, and are good at it, that it provides us all with a sensational profession and an opportunity to make a decent pro living is a godsend. Now where are we going from here?. There are several important factors coming during the Oct time frame. First earnings season starts Monday and runs all the way into Nov. Will they be good? I say yes they will. Will companies guide higher for next quarter, yes I think they will. What will the reaction of the street be? Sell the news? or continue to push stocks higher and higher on these reports. Well we are at a critical juncture right here. What I call a "test of top" coming this week in most indexes. In order for us to continue higher we have to break out over the recent highs with volume. We had a very solid day on Friday, but I'm not so sure there will be a follow thru day. We'll see. I am not a rampant bull here as many of the indicators are slowly turning lower. In my parlance, "rolling over". I wrote this before folks, this market will not go quietly into the night. There's such bullishness out there, such a mentality of not wanting to miss the train again, that any dip is being bought with reckless abandon. It's very tough to stand in front of that train. And who really wants too..Heck we'll take that ride all the way to the Moon<g> Caboose anyone? Look the whole idea here is to try and capture these "anticipatory" runs up and into earnings dates and then sell these stocks 1 day before or the day of earnings. Holding is not a good idea. You can always trade "after hours" on the report, but why gamble here. We do not gamble folks. Play it conservatively. Stocks have had enormous run ups here so selling the news sure wouldn't surprise me. If anyone "misses" they'll get murdered big time for sure. Want to be long holding that stock? I don't think so...So you get my drift here?. I wanted to comment on this weekend. My wife and I went shopping at the malls. It was like Xmas everywhere. We looked at each other as in disbelief? The joint was jumping big time. I mean hugh lines at the register, and sales and business was booming. This is a good sign to me. The consumer has held up this rally all the way. If they really get their act together and the employment picture improves a bit, we could see some pent up IT spending start from corps that HAVE to get rolling against their completion. In fact I'm betting that's exactly what's going to happen here. Companies will begin to re hire and start to spend money to ramp it up as we come out of the doldrums. Could be very exciting. We'll watch and see how this plays out over the next 1-2 quarters. Ok let's take a look at the indexes. =============================================================================================== DJIA---3 CONSECUTIVE HIGHER LOWS AND NEARING A BREAKOUT(B/O) AT 9700. I STILL HAVE A NEAR TERM TARGET OF 10,400 BUT DO NOT HAVE A TIME TABLE FOR IT...9200 IS A DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) BREAKDOWN. 8700 THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND. 8600 IS EXCELLENT SUPPORT(S) AT THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE(BSL) THIS IS A RISING TREND LINE ON P&F. FROM THE AUGUST LOWS TO THE SEPT HIGHS WE DID A PERFECT 61.8% RETRACE DOWN. THIS LAST BOUNCE WAS NICE TOO RIGHT AT THE 100% PROJECTION LINE SO FAR. COMPX---REALLY A PICTURE PERFECT PATTERN ON P&F. FROM THE 1910 TOP WE SOLD OFF EXACTLY 50% FROM THE AUGUST LOWS RIGHT TO THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK AT 1790. THIS WAS SIMPLY PUT A PULLBACK(PB) NOT A CORRECTION OF ANY MAGNITUDE...SO A SOLID 120 POINT DROP HIGH TO LAST WEEKS LOW. HOWEVER THAT WAS WELL ABOVE THE LAST LOW WE HAD AT 1640 REMEMBER THAT LOW? THAT LOW CAME OFF A 1760 HIGH. NOW GET THIS FOLKS. BOTH PULLBACKS WERE EXACTLY 120 POINTS EACH TIME. MYSTERIOUS HUH? RIGHT NOW WE ARE SITTING AT A "LOWER" HIGH AT 1890. 1910 THE "TEST OF TOP" 1920 THE B/O BUY. 1860 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN..IF WE BREAKOUT HERE ON THE NAZ, THAT WOULD BE A BEARISH SIGNAL REVERSAL ON P&F AND VERY VERY BULLISH TO ME. SOX---THIS IS AN IMPORTANT INDEX FOR SURE TO WATCH. ON THE RECENT PB WE BROKE A SPREAD TRIPLE BOTTOM AT 425 ONLY TO EXPLODE UP AGAIN JUST LIKE WHEN WE TOUCHED 370 BEFORE. IF YOU REMEMBER I WAS VERY CAUTIOUS AT THAT TIME FRAME...THIS TIME I DID NOT DIVE IN SHORT. I LEARNED MY LESSON WELL. THE P&F INDICATORS WE ALL "NOT LINED UP" GOOD ENOUGH FOR A MAJOR CHANGE OF DIRECTION THEN, AND THEY'RE NOT LINED UP HERE YET EITHER. CAN IT HAPPEN? ABSOLUTELY. WILL YOU ALL KNOW IT. WITHOUT A DOUBT. SO THE SOX IS AT A LOWER HIGH HERE AT 455. 470 IS THE TEST OF TOP. 475 A VERY NICE B/O BUY. THIS RECENT PB WAS A PERFECT 50% RETRACE BACK DOWN. THIS WILL BE A CRITICAL WEEK FOR SURE. WE ARE RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE ZERO LINE ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC) ON THE CCI..WE NEED TO BREAK UP AND THRU IT FOR A FOLLOW THRU WEEK. BP SEMIS AT 80.32 IN O'S RIGHT NOW. BKX---SHAPING UP NICELY HERE ON P&F. BROKE A DOUBLE TOP(DT) AT 910 AFTER HOLDING A SOLID DB AT 860 AND THEN MAKING A HIGHER LOW AT 875. THE TEST OF TOP IS AT 920 SO 925 IS THE B/O BUY. LOOKS GOOD HERE. NDX---TOPPED RECENTLY AT 1400 THEN BROKE A DB AT 1320 AND STOPPED RIGHT AT THE MIDDLE OF THAT 10 WEEK TRADING BAND. RALLIED LAST WEEK BIG TIME IT'S SITTING AT 1380 RIGHT NOW. SO YOU ALL KNOW THE DEAL. 1400 A TEST OF TOP, 1410 ANOTHER NICE B/O BUY. 1350 IS A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN. BP NDX IS IN O'S AT 75%. BTK---HOLDING UP OK HERE FOLKS. MADE A SECOND HIGHER LOW AT 440, AND HAD A VERY SMALL PB ON THAT RECENT MOVE DOWN AT THE LOCAL SEPT LOWS. 470 WAS A 3 BOX BACK UP LAST WEEK. 490 THE TEST OF TOP A LOCAL HIGH THEN THE "REAL TEST OF TOP" AT THE OLD HIGH AT 510..520 IS THE B/O BUY. BP BIOM IS AT 60.69 IN O'S AND WEAKER TO ME. SPX---TOUCHED THE 61.8% RETRACE BACK DOWN ON THE DCC CHART OFF THE AUGUST LOWS TO THE SEPT HIGHS AND EXPLODED BACK UP HARD LAST WEEK. I LOVE THE "LOOK" OF THE CHART HERE. IF YOU REMEMBER THAT 1010 AREA WAS VERY LONG AND HARD RESISTANCE(R) FOR MONTHS ON END TILL IT BROKE IT AT 1020 THEN HIT 1040..WELL 1050 BLOWS THIS INDEX UP UP AND AWAY. 1100 WOULD BE THE NEW TARGET. THE BP SPX IS AT 77.96% AND STILL IN X'S AS WE SPEAK. 76% WOULD BE NOT GOOD FOLKS I HAVE AN ALERT FOR THAT. OEX---HELD A NICE DB AT 485 RAN UP AND THEN PB TO 500 THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK HERE. IT'S SITTING CLOSE TO ANOTHER B/O OVER 525. IF THE MARKET IS STRONG AHEAD OF EPS THRU OCT I WOULD TAKE IT LONG USING OPTIONS AT THE 525 STRIKE OCT/NOV STRIKE MONTH FOR A QUICK 25-50% SCALP. THE BP FOR THE OEX IS IN O'X AT 79% DOWN FROM 90%. WE CAN GET SHORT HARD BLIPS UP TO TRADE LONG THEN WHACK IT AS IT ROLLS OVER AND DOWN. SPZ3---THE FUTURES WE WATCH IN THE ROOM ES03Z---THE E-MINI...NICE PB OFF THAT 1036 TOP DOWN TO 988, AND THEN IT RALLIED LIKE ALL GET OUT RIGHT BACK TO THE TOP AGAIN ON A MAJOR POP. WE HAD A SMALL REACTION AS WE TESTED THAT TOP, THE MARKET SOLD OFF A BIT LATE FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BE EXPECTED. NOW HERE'S THE $64,000 QUESTION, DO WE EXPLODE UP AND OVER 1040 FOR A NEW IMPROVED BUY SIGNAL? MAYBE YES MAYBE NO WE'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE... 1024 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN. NQZ3---NAZ E-MINI---NQ03Z---SAME CHART AS ABOVE. MAJOR RALLY LAST WEEK, THE SIMPLE ANSWER IS WILL IT CONTINUE TO MOVE UP HERE TO B/O? 1420 IS THAT NUMBER. 1350 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN. THIS INDEX DID A PREFECT 50% RETRACE BACK DOWN DURING THIS PB. =============================================================================================== SO ALL IN ALL WE'VE HAD THAT END OF QUARTER WINDOW DRESSING AS THE FUNDS SOLD STOCKS TO LOCK IN PROFITS, THEN CAME OUT WITH A BIG BUYING SPREE LAST WEEK TO PUSH UP NEAR THE TOPS AGAIN. WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHERE THE STREET WANTS TO GO AHEAD OF EARNINGS...HOPESPRINGSETERNAL? MAYBE. WE ARE MOVING INTO EARNING SEASON THIS WEEK. MANY OF THE STOCKS WE LIKE TO TRADE WILL BE REPORTING IN THE FIRST 2 WEEKS. LOOK FOR SYMPATHY PLAYS AS IN THIS EXAMPLE. YHOO REPORTS ON TUES THE 7TH OR WEDS THE 8TH NEED TO CONFIRM IT-- AFTER HOURS(AH)..AMZN EBAY AND "ALL" THE INETS WILL REACT TO THAT REPORT..IN FACT SO WILL THE MARKET..THEY HAVE PRE ANNOUNCED LOWER REVENUES 2 WEEKS AGO, DID THAT CHANGE? IF THEY DISAPPOINT HERE WE COULD TAKE A BIG HIT WEDS AM. BE IN CASH TUES NIGHT AHEAD OF THAT REPORT AND THEN SEE WHAT THEY SAY TO TAKE POSITIONS "AFTER" THE ANNOUNCEMENT. BE PRUDENT DO NOT GUESS AND DO NOT LEAN. =============================================================================================== OK HERE'S OUR WATCH LIST FOR THIS WEEK...SPRINKLED IN OF COURSE WILL BE EARNINGS PLAYS AND MO MO'S TOO ALONG WITH THOSE WONDERFUL STODGY STOCKS. MAYBE A SHORT OR TWO. LET'S LOOK HERE. YHOO---EPS(EARNINGS PER SHARES) AH TUES/WEDS NEED TO CONFIRM THIS---YHOO HAD A 38.2% PB LATE SEPT AND THEN EXPLODED BACK UP TO THE 100% PROJECTION TARGET ON FRIDAY..EVEN THO THEY WARNED 2 WEEKS AGO THE STREET WAS BUYING THAT DIP. 39.75 THE BTL---38.45 THE SST EBAY---DID A BEARISH SIGNAL REVERSAL ON FRIDAY..I CHASED IT AT 58.00 AND WILL HOLD HERE FOR NOW. THE CHART LOOKS EXPLOSIVE TO ME, MARKET WILLING. MY HORIZONTAL PRICE OBJECTIVE IS 70 BUCKS. NEEDS TO CLEAR 59.--- 57.90 THE BTL---56.70 THE SST AMZN---I OWN THIS AT 50.49 WITH A NICE STOP TOO. CHART IS AMAZING TO SAY THE LEAST THEY LOVE THESE STOCKS..YHOO-EBAY AND AMZN. BTW(BY THE WAY) THEY ALL BROKE OUT LAST WEEK. UNREAL. 53.45 THE BTL---52.25 THE SST INTC---THIS IS ONE POWERFUL STOCK CHART FOLKS..YES IT'S ON A HIGH POLE HERE, BUT THEY HAVE GUIDED HIGHER AND HIGHER THIS Q, AND I EXPECT THEM TO COME IN LINE WITH UPSIDE PRE ANNOUNCEMENT FOR THE NEXT Q. 30.05 THE BTL---29.00 THE SST----I AM LONG AT 29.05 AND HOLDING HERE. SMH---EVERYONE SHOULD LEARN TO TRADE THIS EXCHANGE TRADED FUND(ETF). IT MOVES EITHER WAY AND YOU DO NOT NEED AN UPTICK TO SHORT IT. IT BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM AT 35 THEN SCOOTED BACK UP HERE NICELY..THE QUESTION IS THIS..DOES IT ROLL OVER AND DOWN AGAIN? I AM LONG AT 35.48. WILL HOLD. 37.35 THE BTL---36.40 THE SST. BRCM---IMPORTANT STOCK AT AN IMPORTANT JUNCTURE ON THE CHART..TESTING THE TOP AS I CALL IT RIGHT HERE AND NOW..ACTED VERY WELL LAST WEEK. VERY BULLISH B/O OF A PENNANT ON THE DCC CHART. 29.30 THE BTL---27.25 THE SST---30 IS THE B/O BUY SIGNAL ON P&F IF YOUR LONG STAY LONG. I HAVE A BREAKEVEN STOP AT 28.25 IN PLACE. QLGC---THIS ONE HAS EPS THE FOLLOWING WEEK AROUND THE 13TH OR SO WE NEED TO VERIFY THAT DATE AS THIS STOCK RUNS UP INTO EARNINGS MOST OF THE TIME. STOCK HELD 47 LIKE A CHAMP. REVERSED UP 3 BOXES LAST WEEK...ANYTHING OVER 54 THIS ONE WILL CRANK UP BIG TIME, 53 HEAVY O.H R...50.25 THE BTL---49.15 THE SST. COULD USE OPTIONS FOR THIS ONE. KLAC---THE SEMIS WERE ON FIRE LAST WEEK TO SAY THE LEAST. WE LOVED TRADING THEM AS THEY OFTEN LEAD THE MARKETS UP OR DOWN. 56.60 THE BTL---55.40 THE SST KLIC---HITS A DOUBLE TOP AT 13.00 FAILS THERE AND SELLS OFF A BIT DURING THE RECENT PB TO 10.50..IT REVERSED BACK UP LAST WEEK 3 BOXES. I LIKE THIS STOCK AND THE CHART. 12.30 THE BTL---11.30 THE SST JCOM---ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL STOCK CHARTS OUT THERE, ALMOST LIKE SNDK. THE STREET LOVES THIS COMPANY. PERFECT CUP FORMATION ON THE DCC TOO. IT'S GOING HIGHER FOLKS. 43.65 THE BTL---42.70 THE SST. OVTI---WELL ALL I CAN SAY IS WOW..WE CALLED THIS ONE ON A BOTTOM AT 40+, AND THEN? IT WENT UP VERY FAST HERE OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS. THAT OBVIOUSLY WAS SOLID S. CCI ZRL(ZERO LINE) BREAK UP AND IT'S READY FOR MORE MARKET WILLING. 46.65 THE BTL---45/65 THE SST. THIS STOCK COULD RUN BACK UP TOWARD 50-51 AREA. SINA---NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET..THE WHOLE SECTOR IS VOLATILE AND WILD INTRADAY. WE'LL SEE HOW THEY ACT AHEAD OF EARNINGS. 38.30 THE BTL---37.15 THE SST SOHU---NOW THIS IS AN INTERESTING CHART FOLKS. BEEN VOLATILE LIKE ALL GET OUT..BUT AFTER VIBRATING LIKE A YO-YO IT'S RIGHT NEAR A POTENTIAL MAJOR MOVE...IT COULD GO EITHER WAY SO PAY ATTENTION OK<VBG>...33.90 THE BTL---32.90 THE SST...NOW HERE'S THE DEAL...35 IS A DT BUY SIGNAL STAY LONG..30 A MAJOR BREAKDOWN AREA STAY SHORT... MSFT---THE BIG BOY ON THE BLOCK, HARDLY EVER DISAPPOINTS. THIS IS TRADABLE FOLKS JUST LIKE INTC. 29.55 THE BTL---28.65 THE SST. 30+ IS A BIGGER NUMBER FOR ME FOLKS... QCOM---BEAUTIFUL P&F CHART AS WELL THE DCC CHART SHOWS WELL TOO..IT PULLED BACK RIGHT TO THE 40 EMA HERE. ABOUT A 50% RETRACE BACK DOWN...HAMMERED AND IS BOUNCING HERE. 44.55 THE BTL---43.40 THE SST IBM---DOJI FRIDAY AFTER HITTING THE 38.2% RETRACE DOWN AT AROUND 88...BOUNCED UP NICELY TO TOUCH THE 61.8% PROJECTION. THE 100% IS AT 95.14. COULD GET INTERESTING HERE MARKET WILLING. 91.25 THE BTL---89.90 THE SST...TARGET 95. CELL---IN A BULLISH TYPE TRIANGLE ON P&F HERE FOLKS..COULD BE EXPLOSIVE..THE STREET TOOK SOME PROFITS FOR SURE..HECK I HAD A GREAT SHORT ONE DAY LAST WEEK FOR A BUCK BUT THEN IT FLEW UP FAST..HOLDING THE 20 EMA RIGHT NOW. 35.25 THE BTL---34.15 THE SST..THIS ONE BREAKS OUT ON A DT AT 36 STAY LONG THERE... IMCL---LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL DCB(DEAD CAT BOUNCE) HERE OFF THAT DB BREAK AT 39. 40.10 THE BTL---39.05 THE SST. MERQ---NICE PB TO THE 40 EMA DCC CHART. IT DOUBLE TOPPED OUT AT 52ISH AREA...AND NOW THIS STOCK LOOKS VERY STRONG. 50.65 THE BTL---49.50 THE SST. 52 IS THE DT..53 THE B/O BUY... ================================================================================================ OK WE HAVE INTERESTING TIMES JUST AHEAD. EARNINGS, UPGRADES AND DOWNGRADES MUCH PULLING AND TUGGING OF STOCKS HEADING INTO THIS TIME FRAME. GO TO CASH EACH NIGHT UNLESS WE BREAKOUT. BUT AT ALL TIMES USE HARD STOPS HERE...NEWS ITEMS ON ANY STOCK WILL ROCK IT FOR SURE. LET'S JUST TRADE THIS LIKE THE GOOD TRADERS WE ARE. THESE EARNINGS SEASONS CAN BE SO REWARDING FOR US ALL..BEST OF LUCK THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK IS.................earnings WARMEST REGARDS JERRY jerry olson www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com jerry.olson@verizon.net