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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kumar who wrote (116645)	10/12/2003 4:45:26 PM
From: Eashoa' M'sheekha	Respond to of 281500

>>Mr Sharon and Indian counterpart, Atal Behari Vajpayee, declared themselves partners in the "war against terrorism". << Well there you have it. The all encompassing " War On Terrorism " that Bush has mandated to justify any and all military action and arms build-ups. These were the E-X-A-C-T outcomes predicted by countries who recognized and were concerned with a new arms race developing in the aftermath of 9-11.Any country, on the RIGHT SIDE of history of course, can now use the " War On Terrorism " umbrella to justify most any and all actions. There goes the NPT. There goes most,if not all,treaties and understandings built up over the past fifty years. There goes the divide between what can be considered offensive and defensive weapons. There goes the M.A.D. doctrine that has worked for 50 years. It's all off the table now. Good luck Mother Earth. You'll need it. KC

To: kumar who wrote (116645)	10/12/2003 4:48:32 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

What's happening, is an emerging alliance among the nations occupying majority-Muslim regions, and therefore stuck fighting permanent insurgencies: the U.S. (Iraq, Afghanistan), Israel (Palestine), India (Kashmir), and Russia (Chechnya, others). As the other members of the alliance get closer to India, it drives Pakistan into the anti-U.S. Islamic alliance. China seems, so far, to have avoided insurgency in East Turkestan/Sinkiang (or maybe they are just doing a good job keeping it quiet). Europe has withdrawn from all the Muslim land they used to occupy, so they can sit on the sidelines, in this war. Pakistan's government is in an untenable position. They try to pretend they are a U.S. ally, they accept U.S. money, they allow (partial) access. By themselves, they cannot hope to match India's conventional military, they don't have the resources. Their civilian population, and possibly much or most of the army and Intelligence services, have strong ties and sympathy with the Taliban and Al Queda. I predict that closer U.S.-India-Israel ties (the Crusader Alliance) will be matched by closer Pakistan-Iran-Syria ties (the Jihad Alliance). Pakistan's government will either be replaced by an explicitly anti-American Islamic government (as in Iran), or maintain a pretense of being our ally, while actually working against America (as in Saudi Arabia).