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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gumnam who wrote (39540)	10/13/2003 12:20:18 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello gumnam, <<important question>> My answer, based upon which I build/maintain my speculative portfolio, is that: (a) We are in a commodity bull market, given increased absolute demand relative to supply due to China/India, and augmented by fiat cash xeroxing; (b) We are in an equity bull mania, given absolutely high valuation relative to cash generation enabled by the same fiat cash xeroxing that is augmenting China/India rise; (c) We are in a bond bull, given Japanese blood gushing, FED spin, and fiat deluge that cannot be mopped; and (d) We are in a real estate bull, given all of the above, and the search for relative hard asset safety, recent good experience, CNBC BS, and the non-realization that the primary residence is a poor investment, but a good consumption. Of the four bull markets, (a) seems more durable than (b), more robust than (c), and more sound than (d). This is why I think we should be inclined towards wagering in Aztec Resources (iron ore penny stock in Australia that supplies China), speculating in IVAN (energy exploration in China), betting on gold (liked by Chinese/Indians), speculating in NEM (that digs gold with USD cost), rather than 'investing' in SOHU that is a Chinese/WS creation, even though SOHU can fire the imagination to da mooon :0) Chugs, Jay