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To: FaultLine who wrote (12002)10/13/2003 2:39:08 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793674
 
Our top Political "Pros" spend a lot of money on Focus Groups. Now it turns out they are being lied to. Oh, well, the top Dem pros lied to the media about their polling results in California.
____________________________________

moneybox
Lies, Damn Lies, and Focus Groups
Why don't consumers tell the truth about what they want?
By Daniel Gross - Slate

Here's a paradox: Fifty million Americans have registered for the national Do Not Call list, suggesting they don't want to be bothered by telemarketers and won't buy if they are. Yet telemarketers want to keep calling them. Why? Because the marketers realize that what consumers say they want and what they actually do are not the same: Those who don't want to be called actually buy from telemarketers when they are called. This evidence of consumer untrustworthiness got Moneybox thinking about focus groups. If consumers lie, what good are focus groups?

Evidence suggests focus group participants often lie. "The correlation between stated intent and actual behavior is usually low and negative," writes Harvard Business School professor Gerald Zaltman in his influential book How Customers Think. After all, he notes, 80 percent of new products or services fail within six months when they've been vetted through focus groups. Hollywood films and TV pilots—virtually all of which are screened by focus groups—routinely fail in the marketplace.

Focus groups have become a requirement of everything from product launches to political campaigns. But even though few in the industry question their value, a huge gap yawns between customer intentions expressed in focus groups and behavior in the marketplace.

There are several reasons for this. Start with the participants. Sure, they're all volunteers and presumably well-disposed to the process. But psychological reasons exist that could lead them to say one thing in the confines of a windowless conference room and do another thing at the mall. Moneybox has participated in a few focus groups—and has talked to several people who conduct them. And it seems clear that the motivations of those who show up are varied. Some come because they need the cash, not because they have a deep desire to express their consumer preferences. Others come for the cookies and punch or for the opportunity to interact with other humans. Still others—including Moneybox—spend a lot of time trying to suss out precisely who is doing the testing.

A small percentage of focus group participants may indeed lie maliciously—although it takes a particularly devious criminal mind to go to such lengths to mislead marketers. More participants are simply eager to please. They're getting paid and fed or might have a crush on the moderator. So, they might tell her—and the marketing types behind the one-way mirror—what they think they want to hear, rather than what they really think.

What's more, one would be hard-pressed to come up with a worse environment for eliciting heartfelt and brutally honest opinions. Getting paid to get together with a bunch of strangers, and being led in a discussion by another stranger, is unnatural. In their book Qualitative Interviewing, Herbert Rubin and Irene Rubin note that focus group leaders don't have time to build trust, which is a precondition for eliciting the true feelings of participants. If the discussion turns to controversial issue—like race or women's role in the workplace—many might feel a powerful impulse to self-censor or give politically correct rather than completely honest answers.

Another conceptual flaw: Focus groups frequently ask people to make snap judgments about products they haven't seen or used. "When you ask somebody a question, they'll have an opinion," said Robbie Blinkoff, principal anthropologist and managing partner of the Context-Based Research Group. "And they may know absolutely nothing about it, or have never experienced it. It's abstracted from their reality." (Rather than conduct focus groups, Context focuses on fieldwork. Brinkoff and his colleagues watch people using products in their natural habitats. Think Margaret Mead in New Rochelle, not New Guinea.)

Gerald Zaltman agrees. Because focus groups don't reflect experience but rather hypothetical choices, "Contrary to conventional wisdom, they are not effective when developing and evaluating new product ideas, testing ads, or evaluating brand images."

But he goes a step further. The real reason people may seem to "lie" to focus groups is that they simply don't know what they want. Nor can they readily conceive what they want. "Standard questioning can sometimes reveal consumers' thinking about familiar goods and services if those thoughts and feelings are readily accessible and easily articulated," Zaltman writes. But that's a huge "if." "Most of the thoughts and feelings that influence consumers' and managers' behavior occur in the unconscious mind." Not irrational, but unconscious.

"Unconscious thoughts are the most accurate predictors of what people will actually do," Zaltman said in an interview. "In the space of 5 or 10 minutes in a focus group, which is the average airtime per person, you can't possibly get at one person's unconscious thinking."

So, why do focus groups remain so popular? They are time-honored mechanisms with clearly defined costs and that produce data in a specific time frame. Perhaps most important, they can be used to validate initiatives or concepts that the people commissioning the focus groups have already invested vast resources and time in. Typically, Hollywood focus-groups endings of films or completed pilots—not screenplays and development pitches. Ad agencies tend to focus-group a few ideas they have brainstormed and then report to the client which one scored best. The primary function of focus groups is often to validate the sellers' own beliefs about their product. Focus groups, which are supposed to explore the psychological needs of consumers, may serve as much to fulfill the psychological needs of sellers.

Daniel Gross (www.danielgross.net) writes Slate's "Moneybox" column. You can e-mail him at moneybox@slate.com.

Article URL: slate.msn.com



To: FaultLine who wrote (12002)10/13/2003 2:49:21 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 793674
 
This is chilling
_____________________

DANGEROUS DIPLOMACY

Foggy Bottom's Friends
Why is the State Department so cozy with the Saudis?

BY JOEL MOWBRAY
Monday, October 13, 2003 12:01 a.m.

(Editor's note: This is adapted from , "Dangerous Diplomacy: How the State Department Threatens American Security," which you can buy from the OpinionJournal bookstore.)

The date was April 24, 2002. Standing on the runway at Ellington Air Force Base in Houston, the cadre of FBI, Secret Service and Customs agents had just been informed by law-enforcement officials that there was a "snag" with Crown Prince Abdullah's oversized entourage, which was arriving with the prince for a visit to George W. Bush's Western White House in Crawford, Texas. The flight manifest of the eight-plane delegation accompanying the Saudi would-be king had a problem. Three problems, to be exact: One person on the list was wanted by U.S. law enforcement authorities, and two others were on a terrorist watch list.

This had the potential to be what folks in Washington like to refer to as an "international incident." But the State Department was not about to let an "international incident" happen. Which is why this story has never been written--until now.

Upon hearing that there was someone who was wanted and two suspected terrorists in Abdullah's entourage, the FBI was ready to "storm the plane and pull those guys off," explains an informed source. But given the "international" component, State was informed of the FBI's intentions before any action could be taken. When word reached the Near Eastern Affairs bureau, its reaction was classic State Department: "What are we going to do about those poor people trapped on the plane?" To which at least one law-enforcement official on the ground responded, "Shoot them"--not exactly the answer State was looking for.

State, Secret Service and the FBI then began what bureaucrats refer to as an "interagency process." In other words, they started fighting. The FBI believed that felons, even Saudi felons, were to be arrested. State had other ideas. The Secret Service didn't really have any, other than to make sure that the three Saudis in question didn't get anywhere near the president or the vice president. State went to the mat in part because it was responsible for giving visas to the three in the first place. Since this was a government delegation--for which all applications are generally handled at one time--the names were probably not run through the normal watch lists before the visas were issued.

Details about what happened to the three men in the end are not entirely clear, and no one at State was willing to provide any facts about the incident. What is clear, though, is that the three didn't get anywhere near Crawford, but were also spared the "embarrassment" of arrest. And the House of Saud was spared an "international incident." That normally staid bureaucrats engaged in incredible acrobatics to bail out three guys who never should have been in the United States in the first place says a great deal about State's "special relationship" with the Saudis.

The State-Saudi alliance really does boil down to one thing: oil. At least that's what former secretary of state George Shultz seems to think: "They're an important country," he told me. "They have lots of oil. You do pay a lot of attention to that." Foggy Bottom agrees, and has been conditioned to do so by the 1970s oil shocks. When the infamous oil crisis of 1973 was ballooning, America was confident that its tight relationship with the Saudis would ensure an uninterrupted flow of cheap oil. This confidence was shattered--and world oil prices more than tripled--when the Saudis pursued their own economic interests. Saudi power inside Washington skyrocketed, with bureaucrats realizing that the House of Saud could not be taken for granted.

When the next oil crisis struck in 1979, prices shot up by more than 150%--but that was mostly driven by other countries: a substantial drop in Iraqi production and the sudden halt in Iranian production. Consumer panic, hoarding by nervous companies and individuals, and price gouging also contributed. Saudi Arabia did little to deepen the crisis--Saudi-controlled OPEC implemented two comparably modest price increases in 1979--and actually was seen by many as an invaluable ally. The balance of power managed to shift even further in the Saudi direction in following years--and State became ever more willing to accede to Saudi demands.

The bond between Washington and Riyadh may have deepened because of the oil crises, but it began decades earlier. FDR initiated the oil-for-protection relationship in 1945. President Eisenhower enshrined this arrangement as a strategic goal with his Eisenhower Doctrine in 1957, where he declared the protection of the Arab world--with particular focus on Saudi Arabia--to be a national-security priority.
While official policy was coziness with the House of Saud and Foggy Bottom was dominated by Arabists, there was some degree of tension, with many officials uncomfortable with the radical Wahhabi clerics who dominate everyday life in Saudi Arabia. In 1962, President Kennedy became increasingly concerned that the civil war in Yemen--in which Egypt backed the pan-Arab revolutionaries, and Saudi Arabia backed the royalists--posed a tremendous threat to the stability of the region. According to Hermann Eilts, a former ambassador to both Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Kennedy pushed the House of Saud to engage "in internal economic and political reform and end all aid to the Yemeni royalists." Such pressure, though, turned out to be short-lived. Mr. Eilts, in a review of a book by a fellow Arabist, former ambassador to Saudi Arabia Parker Hart, noted that promotion of reform--something Mr. Eilts himself found unpleasant and unhelpful--was abandoned entirely just a few years after it started.

Not until Lyndon Johnson's administration did then-secretary of state Dean Rusk wisely discontinue all such exhortations for reform, which by then had become almost rote and counterproductive. The Saudi leadership, Rusk believed, was best qualified to judge its own best interests.

But in the intervening years, the State Department's refusal to press for reform in Saudi Arabia turned into humiliating obsequiousness. Wahhabi Islam--the militant strain endorsed by the ruling family--is the only permitted religion in the kingdom. Christians are not allowed to worship on Saudi soil--and Jews are not even allowed in the country. Even Shiites, the majority population in the oil-rich Eastern Province, are not free to practice their denomination of Islam. Not only does State not push to change this flagrant violation of religious liberty, it behaves like the House of Saud when asked to do so. In 1997, the U.S. Consulate in Jeddah banned the offering of Catholic Mass on the premises--Protestant services had already been relegated to the British Consulate--because of the Saudi government's "displeasure."

Perhaps former assistant secretary (the lead position of a bureau) for Near Eastern Affairs Ned Walker said it best when he told the Washington Post, "Let's face it, we got a lot of money out of Saudi Arabia." Mr. Walker meant "we" as in the U.S. government, but he easily could have used it to refer to former Foggy Bottom officials who benefit financially after retirement. Some do it directly--and in public view, because of stringent reporting requirements--while most, including Mr. Walker, choose a less noticeable trough.
The gravy train dates back more than 25 years. In that time, it has created a circle of sympathizers and both direct and indirect lobbyists. But the most important--and most indirect--byproduct of lining the pockets of former State officials is that the Saudi royal family finds itself with passionate supporters inside Foggy Bottom. Which is precisely the intended effect. Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the Saudi ambassador to Washington, was quoted in the Washington Post: "If the reputation then builds that the Saudis take care of friends when they leave office, you'd be surprised how much better friends you have who are just coming into office." This is not to say that State officials make decisions with visions of dollars dancing in their heads, but at the very least, they probably take a more benign view of the royal family that "takes care of" their friends and former colleagues.

Among the first former Foggy Bottom officials to work directly for the House of Saud was former assistant secretary for congressional affairs Frederick Dutton, starting in 1975. According to a 1995 public filing (mandated for all paid foreign agents), Mr. Dutton earns some $200,000 a year. Providing mostly legal services, Mr. Dutton also flacks for the House of Saud and even lobbies on the royal family's behalf from time to time. One of his successors as head of congressional affairs, Linwood Holton, also went to work for the Saudis, starting in 1977. Rounding out the current team of retired State officials now directly employed by the Saudis is Peter Thomas Madigan, deputy assistant secretary for legislative affairs in the first Bush administration.

Most of the Saudi money, though, goes indirectly to former State officials, most commonly by means of think tanks. This approach pays dividends in many ways: Foggy Bottom retirees get to have their cake--without the public realizing they're eating it--and the Saudis get to have "indirect" lobbyists, who promote the Saudi agenda under the cover of the think-tank label. Three organizations in particular are the primary beneficiaries of Saudi petrodollars, and all are populated with former State officials: the Meridian International Center, the Middle East Policy Council and the Middle East Institute.

After a long and "distinguished" career in the Foreign Service, Walter Cutler took the reins at the Meridian International Center. He had served as ambassador to Zaire and Tunisia, and twice in Saudi Arabia, and he stayed close to the Saudis after leaving State. Mr. Cutler told the Washington Post that the Saudis had been "very supportive of the center." Meridian is not alone. The Middle East Policy Council, which also receives significant Saudi funding, counts among its ranks former ambassadors--career Foreign Service members all--Charles Freeman, Frank Carlucci, and Hermann Eilts.

The Middle East Institute, officially on the Saudi payroll, receives some $200,000 of its annual $1.5 million budget from the Saudi government, and an unknown amount from Saudi individuals--often a meaningless distinction since most of the "individuals" with money to donate are members of the royal family, which constitutes the government. MEI's chairman is Wyche Fowler, who was ambassador to Saudi Arabia from 1996-2001, and its president is Ned Walker, who has served as the deputy chief of Mission in Riyadh and ambassador to Egypt.

Also at MEI: David Mack, former ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and deputy assistant secretary for Near Eastern affairs; Richard Parker, former ambassador to Algeria, Lebanon, and Morocco; William Eagleton, former ambassador to Syria; Joseph C. Wilson, career foreign-service office and former deputy chief of mission in Baghdad; David Ransom, former ambassador to Bahrain and former deputy chief of Mission in Yemen, the United Arab Emirates and Syria; and Michael Sterner, former ambassador to the UAE and deputy assistant secretary of Near Eastern affairs.

For Meridian and MEI, at least, the House of Saud is not the only government entity lining up to fund them; Foggy Bottom is as well. Meridian does significant amounts of work with State, particularly in coordinating the International Visitors Program, which determines the individuals and groups invited--and not invited--to Washington for a chance to curry favor with State officials in person. MEI last year was slated to handle a conference of Iraqi dissidents--which was going to exclude the umbrella organization of pro-democracy groups, the Iraqi National Congress--in London. (The conference was cancelled after public outcry over MEI's role.) The grant for holding the conference was a staggering $5 million--more than three times MEI's annual budget.

The money, the favors, and State's affinity for Saudi elites over the decades have all helped contribute to the "special relationship" between State and the House of Saud. Notes Hudson Institute senior fellow Laurent Murawiec, "This is a relationship that has been cemented by 40 years of money, power, and political favors that goes much deeper than most people realize."

State has by no means been acting as a rogue department in dealing with Saudi Arabia, somehow coddling a nation that various White Houses considered hostile. But the lengths to which State goes to pamper the Saudis is something largely carried out of its own volition. There is no better example of this than Visa Express, the program that required all Saudis (including noncitizens) to turn in their visa applications at private Saudi travel agencies, which then sent them in bundles to the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh or the Consulate in Jeddah. Visa Express was entirely of State's own making; it was conceived of and planned for while Bill Clinton was president, and was officially launched when President Bush was in the White House. And in the three months it was operational before the September 11 attacks, Visa Express let in three of the hijackers. But State did not shut it down. It took 10 months--and tremendous public pressure--before that happened.
From the moment in early 1993 that Mary Ryan became head of Consular Affairs, the division that oversees visa issuance, consulates and embassies, traditional requirements for visa applicants started getting pared down. Partial versions of Visa Express--though not by that name--were implemented in various countries in the mid- to late 1990s. But nowhere in the world had State launched a program whereby all residents, citizens and noncitizens alike, would be expected to submit visa applications to local, private travel agencies. It was a bold--and untested--plan. Yet State chose to try out this ambitious project in a nation that was a known hotbed of al Qaeda extremists.

To be fair, most Americans were not thinking about national security in late 2000 and early 2001, but State should have been. That's its job. Khobar Towers, the U.S. military dormitory, had been attacked by Hezbollah terrorists in 1996, killing 19 U.S. soldiers and wounding 372. And State had ample information that al Qaeda was fully operational inside Saudi Arabia. Yet State went ahead with plans to launch its first nationwide Visa Express program.

Although State vociferously defended Visa Express when it came under intense scrutiny--claiming that it was almost irrelevant that travel agencies had been deputized to collect visa applications (and more, as it turned out)--the truth is that Visa Express was an incredible threat to U.S. border security. State's official line was that travel agencies did no more than, say, FedEx would in collecting and passing on applications. This was simply not true.

According to internal State documents, travel agencies were expected to conduct preinterviews and ensure compliance. In other words, people with financial incentive to obtain visas for others were helping them fill out the forms. At first blush, this might not sound significant. But the average visa application is approved or refused in two to three minutes, meaning that there are key indicators a consular officer looks for in making his decisions. With a two-page form--one page of which has questions like "Are you a member of a terrorist organization? (Answering 'yes' will not necessarily trigger a refusal)"--a travel agent who handles dozens or hundreds of applications daily could easily figure out the red flags that are to be avoided. Armed with that information, it would be relatively easy to help an applicant beat the system. Visa Express also arranged it so that the overwhelming majority of Saudi applicants never came into contact with a U.S. citizen until stepping off the airplane onto American soil.

Apparently oblivious to the glaring security loopholes created by Visa Express, State proudly implemented the program in June 2001. In an e-mail that, in hindsight, is shocking for its gleeful tone, the deputy chief of mission in Riyadh, Thomas P. Furey, wrote to Mary Ryan about Visa Express being a "win-win-win-win"--with nary a mention of security concerns. In the e-mail, Mr. Furey notes that the program started with Saudi nationals--whom he amazingly refers to as "clearly approvable"--and then says that Visa Express had been expanded to include non-Saudi citizens one day earlier, on June 25, 2001. Visa Express also resulted in the overwhelming majority of Saudi applicants never coming into contact with visa applicants. "The number of people on the street and coming through the gates should only be fifteen percent of what it was last summer," Mr. Furey wrote.

The four wins Mr. Furey boasts about? From his e-mail:

The RSO [regional security officer, an American responsible for coordinating embassy security with local police] is happy, the guard force [Saudi residents who provide embassy and consulate security] is happy, the public loves the service (no more long lines and they can go to the travel agencies in the evening and not take time off from work), we love it (no more crowd control stress and reduced work for the FSNs [Foreign Service Nationals, Saudi residents]) and now this afternoon Chuck Brayshaw and I were at the Foreign Ministry and discovered the most amazing thing--the Saudi Government loves it!
It would be easier to defend State's creation of Visa Express if it had abandoned it on Sept. 12, 2001--or at least had done so after it realized that 15 of the hijackers were Saudis, including three who got in through the program. But in the month after September 11, out of 102 applicants whose forms were processed at the Jeddah consulate, only two were interviewed, and none were refused. When word leaked to the Washington Post that 15 of the 10 terrorists were Saudis, the embassy in Riyadh assured the Saudis that the U.S. had "not changed its procedures or policies in determining visa eligibility as a result of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001."
After my investigative story on Visa Express came out in mid-June 2002, State's initial change was cosmetic--literally. It dropped the name "Visa Express," but changed nothing about the program itself. Only after a month of a full-court press defending the suddenly nameless program did State shutter it. And even then, it was not because it had realized the error of its ways, but because it needed to offer some proof to Congress--set to vote near the end of July to strip State of the visa authority altogether--that it was indeed fit to handle such a vital function of U.S. border security. (The gambit worked--Congress sided with State.)

After the program was sacked, officials at State "openly worried that Saudi relations would worsen with the stricter requirements," according to an official there. If only they had expressed such "worry" about the wisdom of fast-tracking visas in a nation teeming with Islamic extremists.

Saudi Arabia, after all, is the home of Wahhabi Islam, and Wahhabi true believers' favorite catch phrase is "Death to America"--well, maybe the second favorite, after "Death to Israel." But look again at Mr. Furey's e-mail. He was clearly--frighteningly--blind to this reality. He referred to Saudi nationals as "clearly approvable." What he saw was a nation filled with people he believed belonged in the United States. Mr. Furey, in his e-mail, summed up his idealized vision of Saudi Arabia quite succinctly: "This place really is a wonderland."

State's obliviousness to reality--and security--had an even more incredible result: One of the 10 travel-agency companies contracted as a Visa Express vendor is a subsidiary of a suspected financier of terrorism. Fursan Travel & Tourism is owned by the Al-Rajhi Banking & Investment Corporation, or RBIC, which is one of the alleged financiers of al Qaeda listed in the "Golden Chain" documents seized in Bosnia in March 2002 (detailing the early supporters of al Qaeda back in the late 1980s, after the Soviets left Afghanistan). RBIC was also the primary bank for a number of charities raided in the United States after Sept. 11 for suspected ties to terrorist organizations. RBIC maintained accounts for the International Islamic Relief Organization, the Saudi Red Crescent Society, the Muslim World League and the World Assembly of Muslim Youth. RBIC also was used to wire money to the Global Relief Foundation in Belgium, which the United States has designated as a terrorist organization.
Records recovered by Spanish authorities show that several members of an al Qaeda affiliate there held accounts at RBIC, and the terror cell's chief financier told a business partner to use RBIC for their transactions in a fax recovered by Spanish police. And they were not the only al Qaeda terrorists who did business there. Abdulaziz Alomari, who helped Mohamed Atta crash American Airlines Flight 11 into the north tower of the World Trade Center and was one of the three terrorists who received a visa through Visa Express, held an account at RBIC as well. Because his visa application form--which I obtained--does not indicate which travel agency he used, it is not known whether Alomari submitted his application to the agency owned by RBIC.

The founder and namesake of RBIC, Suleiman Abdul Aziz al-Rajhi, also started the SAAR Foundation, whose successor, Safa Trust (SAAR liquidated, but most of the same people and operations carried over to Safa) was at the center of the FBI's investigation into the extensive financial network of mostly Saudi-financed terrorist activities in the U.S. Operation Greenquest, as it was called, resulted in the raiding of 23 different Muslim organizations' offices, including Safa Trust and several charities that had bank accounts with RBIC. Although the raids occurred after September 11, the FBI had been investigating the elaborate financial arrangements--which regularly included SAAR--for years before the September 11 attacks.

Yet the State Department was so careless in choosing its Visa Express vendors that one owned by a suspected financier of terrorism became deputized to handle the collection and initial processing of U.S. visas.

When driving from Jeddah to Mecca, one encounters two road signs. The first tells Muslims that Mecca is straight ahead. The other tells non-Muslims to proceed no further and take the last available exit. Welcome to Saudi Arabia, where some Muslims can practice their religion freely, and no one else can. Shiite Muslims, the majority population of the oil-rich Eastern Province, are not only not free to practice their version of Islam, but they can be imprisoned and tortured for doing so. History helps explain some of this disdain and contempt for non-Wahhabists. Mohammed ibn Saud, ancestor to the current king, struck a pact with Mohammed ibn Abd al-Wahhab some 250 years ago, whereby Wahhab's fundamentalist clerics and followers would support the Saud family, in exchange for the royal family's generous financial support of Wahhabism, Wahhab's militant version of Sunni Islam. Modern-day Wahhabists hate nothing more--aside from Christians, Jews, and other infidels--than Muslims practicing non-Wahhabist Islam.
In a June 28, 2000, letter to then-secretary of state Madeleine Albright, the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, which was established by Congress in 1998 to advise Foggy Bottom, wrote:

In Saudi Arabia, the government brazenly denies religious freedom and vigorously enforces its prohibition against all forms of public religious expression other than that of Wahabi Muslims. Numerous Christians and Shi'a Muslims continue to be detained, imprisoned and deported. As the Department's 1999 Annual Report bluntly summarized: "Freedom of religion does not exist."
Even worshipping or praying in the dark of night can be a dangerous activity in Saudi Arabia, for Saudi police regularly storm into homes if they have reason to believe Christians are attempting to worship. Punishment can be severe. In 1998, a Christian Ethiopian got 1,000 lashes--carried out over several months--after merely being accused of distributing religious materials.
The worst punishments are reserved, though, for those who leave Islam. The punishment for people who commit apostasy--the "crime" of converting from Islam to another religion--is beheading. The House of Saud, however, promotes conversions of a different kind--bringing people into Islam, particularly those who work in embassies. Paid on a sliding scale, those who cajole others into converting to Islam are rewarded with bounties of up to $20,000. The highest payment is for converting an American diplomat; lower payments of a few hundred dollars are given for converting a foreign national from one of the non-Western embassies.

Based on overwhelming evidence of religious persecution and overall denial of any form of religious liberty, the Commission on International Religious Freedom recommended--for the fourth year in a row--that State designate Saudi Arabia as one of the handful of nations considered a "country of particular concern (CPC)." According to the commission, Saudi Arabia qualified under every criterion--and was actually seen as the worst offender in the world.

But for the fourth year in a row, State didn't comply. The CPC designation is despised by listed countries, because it automatically triggers sanctions, though those sanctions can be easily waived for reasons of U.S. national interest. Under the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998, which both created the commission and mandated that State provide annual reports on international religious freedom, State has no leeway on whether or not to report a country that meets certain standards of religious persecution or denial of religious liberty.

There is a simple explanation for the Saudi exclusion: higher-ups at State put their collective foot down. According to an administration official familiar with the internal squabbling surrounding the Saudi-CPC question, "It was Armitage's decision. He made the call." That would be Richard Armitage, Foggy Bottom's No. 2 official, Secretary Colin Powell's right-hand man, and a trusted friend of the Saudis. In the Powell State Department, Mr. Armitage is the filter through which all major policy changes must go. And Mr. Armitage made it quite clear, according to another official, that Saudi Arabia was not to be given the CPC designation. A different administration official, however, says that although politics played a part, Mr. Armitage's role in the process was a bit more nuanced, meaning those writing the report were made to "know" early on how things operate and what wouldn't be tolerated. "Let's put it this way: the decision [on Saudi Arabia] was made a long time before it was actually 'made,' " explains the official. Either way, the House of Saud received another free pass.

Prince Bandar is often considered the most politically savvy of all the foreign ambassadors living in Washington. That may or may not be true--but he certainly is the best-protected. According to a Diplomatic Security official, Prince Bandar has a security detail that includes full-time participation of six highly trained and skilled DS officers. (DS officers are federal government employees charged with securing American diplomatic missions.) The DS officers and a contingent of private security officers guard him at his northern Virginia residence and travel with him to places like Florida or his ski resort in Aspen, Colo.
A State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity, claimed that State was reimbursed by the Saudi government for the use of the DS officers, though he refused to provide any specifics or evidence to that effect. Even if the salaries are reimbursed, though, six skilled DS agents are diverted from meaningful work, such as investigating visa fraud, in order to protect one person.

To show his appreciation for their presence, Prince Bandar provides the DS agents with catered meals every day, and with fresh-brewed coffee and gourmet pastries to start out the mornings. The agents enjoy these delicacies from the comfort of an extra house on the premises reserved for the security staff. When the DS agents join Prince Bandar in Aspen--where they have their own ski chalet--he typically buys them full ski outfits and other gifts.

But each agent who works for Bandar is cycled off-rotation very quickly: on average about 30 days after arriving. There doesn't seem to be any real reason for this, other than that Bandar might hope that the more agents he serves catered meals and buys fancy gifts for, the more friends he is likely to have. But with the number of "friends" he--and the rest of the Saudi royal family--already have at Foggy Bottom, one wonders why he would need more.

Mr. Mowbray is author of "Dangerous Diplomacy: How the State Department Threatens American Security" (Regnery, 2003), from which this article is adapted. You can buy it from the OpinionJournal bookstore.

opinionjournal.com



To: FaultLine who wrote (12002)10/13/2003 3:38:08 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793674
 
I just posted my thoughts on what Arnold needs to do. The LA Times runs an article on precisely that point.
_____________________________

GOP May Get Push to Center
Schwarzenegger could reposition a state party dominated by its right wing, analysts say.
By Michael Finnegan
Times Staff Writer

October 13, 2003

With his triumph in the recall race, Arnold Schwarzenegger restored the California Republican Party to power 11 months after its worst electoral defeat in 120 years.

Now, as standard-bearer of a suddenly revitalized GOP, the moderate governor-elect could choose to draw on his vast reservoir of political capital to broaden his party's appeal beyond its conservative base, strategists say.

Most immediately, he has an opportunity to influence the party's battle to unseat U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer in November 2004. More important for his own political future, Schwarzenegger has a chance to reshape the Legislature's Republican minority, now dominated by conservatives, and perhaps expand it.

The depth of Schwarzenegger's interest in remaking the state party in his own ideological image remains to be seen. With less than five weeks to prepare his takeover of a state that's a fiscal shambles, he has focused initially on building his administration, putting off decisions on how to wield his extraordinary political clout.

"All the attention is on forming a government right now," Schwarzenegger spokesman Rob Stutzman said.

On Sunday, another aide said it was uncertain if Schwarzenegger would join President Bush on Wednesday at fund-raisers in Fresno and Riverside for the president's reelection campaign, but the two are likely to meet before Bush leaves Thursday for Japan.

With or without Schwarzenegger's help, the Bush campaign is sure to be richly endowed, but for California Republicans the incoming governor's power to raise huge sums of money marks a major turnaround.

Since Republican Gov. Pete Wilson left office nearly five years ago, the California GOP has struggled to match the Democrats' robust collection of campaign money. Democrats control both houses of the Legislature, both U.S. Senate seats and a majority of the state's congressional delegation. In November, Democrats won every statewide office on the ballot for the first time since 1882.

Now that Schwarzenegger has ended the GOP's losing streak, many Republicans hope his victory will attract more money to the party and make it more competitive, starting with next year's campaign against Boxer.

"It makes a huge difference, and it's going to make it much easier to win the Senate race," said former Secretary of State Bill Jones, a potential candidate for Boxer's seat.

Before the recall of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, Jones said, Republican donors had been "very downcast," undermining the party's attempted comeback.

"There's this myth that Republicans can't win here," said Bush campaign advisor Mindy Tucker, a counselor to the state party. "That myth was disproved the other night" by Schwarzenegger's triumph.

But that ignores the unique circumstances of Schwarzenegger's victory. The world-famous movie star was able to leap over the fund-raising difficulties and unfamiliarity that bedevil most candidates in big races. He was running against a governor who had come to personify voters' anger at status quo politics.

In a quick recall race that bypassed party nominations, Schwarzenegger was able to capture the governorship with no initial vetting in a Republican primary, often a high hurdle for moderates. Though his profile as a fiscal conservative is popular among Republicans, his liberal stands on abortion, gun control and gay rights would have dampened his appeal in a primary.

There is an additional barrier to any effort to influence the Senate or upcoming legislative races: The deadlines for candidates to file for those races occur within weeks, just as Schwarzenegger is putting together his budget.

For years, Republicans have tended to nominate top-of-the-ticket candidates well to the right of most Californians, most recently businessman Bill Simon Jr. for governor in 2002 and then-Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren in 1998. Their conservative stands on social issues made prime targets for Democratic attacks. In the recall, however, most conservatives bypassed one of their own on the ballot — state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks — and went with Schwarzenegger, the candidate more likely to win.

"This party for several election cycles has been bent on self-destruction," said Mark Chapin Johnson of Tustin, a major Republican donor who backs moderates. "Sanity is starting to prevail."

But Boxer campaign strategist Roy Behr said Republicans were deluding themselves to think that Schwarzenegger's victory would make the party any more likely to nominate a moderate for the Senate race.

"Republican donors are going to be interested in supporting candidates who can win, and the Republican primary process is not going to produce a candidate who can win," Behr said. "It's going to produce a far-right candidate, just as it has consistently for the last 20 years."

At any rate, given the fragile coalition of moderates and conservatives that elected Schwarzenegger, advisors and outside strategists said he is unlikely to back candidates in Republican primaries, whether for U.S. Senate or the state Legislature.

"He's not going to cut off the right wing of the Republican Party," said GOP consultant Allan Hoffenblum. "He's going to broaden its base."

In the early 1990s, then-Gov. Pete Wilson irked conservatives by supporting fellow moderates in GOP primaries, a practice that one former aide described as "more trouble than it was worth." Wilson's goal was pragmatic: In the moderate, often upscale coastal districts where Republicans can compete with Democrats, conservative nominees are typically doomed in the general election.

Now, however, the California political map offers fewer competitive districts where Republicans might pick up new seats. Lawmakers adjusted the map after the 2000 census in a collaborative way that protected incumbents of each party but ensured a lopsided balance of power: Democrats now outnumber Republicans in the Assembly 48 to 32, and in the Senate 25 to 15.

By leaving as few as half a dozen seats up for grabs, lawmakers intensified the polarization of the Legislature. Though liberal Democrats control its overall direction, conservative Republicans have been adamant in exercising their power to block tax hikes, which require a two-thirds vote. In essence, lawmakers are locked in a perpetual state of ideological combat.

Schwarzenegger, like Davis, is sure to be caught in the middle — with the fate of his political agenda at stake. With the dearth of competitive districts hindering wholesale GOP advances, the main tool at his disposal is the same one that drove his candidacy: star power. He can deploy it in raising money for the party and in campaigning.

During his campaign, Schwarzenegger offered a more radical plan to reshape the Legislature. Three retired judges chosen by lottery would redraw the legislative map "for the benefit of the voters, not politicians." Proposals to overhaul the map have languished in the Legislature but could be revived after Schwarzenegger takes power.

"There is bipartisan feeling in Sacramento that these districts are terrible," said Tony Quinn, an expert on reapportionment.

Anti-tax advocate Ted Costa, who led the drive to get the Davis recall before voters, said he will submit papers this week to start circulating a petition for a ballot measure that would lead to a new map favoring moderates in both parties.

"All these people who did the bipartisan gerrymander, shame on them all," Costa said.

Schwarzenegger has not taken a position on Costa's measure.

Another key test of his interest in electing moderates to the Legislature will come in the state Senate reelection race of McClintock, the Republican who won more than 1 million votes in the recall race after Schwarzenegger forces failed to persuade him to step aside. McClintock, now the best-known leader of the state party's large conservative faction, could face a primary challenge from moderate Beth Rogers.

Some Republicans have wondered whether Schwarzenegger's appointment of Rogers to his transition team signaled he would back her in the March primary against McClintock. Former state Republican Chairman Shawn Steel, an ally of the conservatives, said he expects Schwarzenegger to steer clear of the conflict.

"It would really threaten Arnold's ability to govern effectively with a united, strong right-moderate coalition," Steel said. "I expect his people will whisper to Beth Rogers to stay out of the race."

Schwarzenegger advisors said the Rogers appointment was not meant as a signal to McClintock. One aide said the governor-elect "is smart and knows grudges don't move the ball forward."

latimes.com



To: FaultLine who wrote (12002)10/13/2003 6:30:25 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793674
 
Arnold will have a line-item veto! That's one good weapon. I think this is the first column by Thomas Sowell that I have posted. I have read his AutoBio. Good man. Solid writer, but not outstanding. ____________________________________________

Is California crazy?

The California recall election and its surrounding hoopla may have confirmed the suspicions of some people in other parts of the country that Californians are crazy. But not all Californians are crazy — just the most affluent and highly educated ones.

Although the state as a whole voted to remove the disastrous Governor Gray Davis from office by 55 percent to 45 percent, he received a solid majority of support in most of the upscale northern California coastal counties.

In San Mateo County, where the average home costs more than half a million dollars and the environmentalists reign supreme, keeping the vast majority of the land off-limits to building, 63 percent of the voters wanted Gray Davis to remain in office. In even more upscale Marin County, 68 percent of the voters were for Gray Davis. And in San Francisco, the furthest left of them all, no less than 80 percent voted to keep Gray Davis as governor.

There is a certain irony here, since the Democrats like to portray themselves as the party of the working people, with special solicitude for "the children" and for minorities. But working people, families with children and blacks are precisely the kinds of people who have been forced out of these three affluent and politically correct counties.

All three of these ultra-liberal counties have been losing black population since the previous census. Kindergartens in San Mateo County are shutting down for lack of children. The number of children in San Francisco has also gone down since the last census, even though the population of the city as a whole has gone up.



Out in the valleys to which those who are not as affluent have been forced to flee, in order to find something resembling affordable housing, the vote was just as solidly against Davis as it was for him among those further up the income scale. Out where ordinary people live, the vote against Governor Davis was 64 percent in Merced County, 72 percent in Tulare County and 75 percent in Lassen County.

The time is long overdue to get rid of the outdated notion that liberal Democrats represent ordinary people. They represent such special interests as trial lawyers who keep our courts clogged with frivolous lawsuits, busybody environmentalists who think the government should force other people to live the way the greens want them to live, and of course the teachers' unions who think schools exist to provide their members with jobs.

Many of these people are over-educated, in the sense that they have spent many years in institutions which have propagandized them with the politically correct vision of the world — even if they have not taught them much history, economics, or other mundane things.

Someone has said that people are not born stupid, but are made that way by education. Certainly that is true of what too often passes for education these days. You don't have to be crazy to want to keep Governor Gray Davis in office, but it helps.

This is the same Gray Davis who recently signed a bill to allow illegal aliens to get California driver's licenses. Using driver's licenses as identification, illegal aliens can now do pretty much whatever a citizen can do. Given our lax election laws, that probably includes voting.

Although Governor Davis is best known for the blackouts that his crazy policies on electricity brought on, he has been versatile in the havoc he has wreaked. Nor is he through yet. He could get writer's cramp from all the bills and appointments he signs before leaving office.

What can Governor-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger do for California? Given the Democrats' solid control of the state legislature, Arnold is unlikely to get any laws passed reflecting his own views.

Nevertheless the new governor will have a line-item veto to cut back on some of the reckless spending that California's liberal Democrats specialize in. More than that, Schwarzenegger can use the bully pulpit of his office to educate the public on what is wrong with the bills he vetoes.

In short, he can promote sanity among the electorate, so that they do not keep putting in office the kind of people who make others wonder if Californians are crazy
jewishworldreview.com



To: FaultLine who wrote (12002)10/13/2003 10:18:30 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793674
 
It's "Columbus Day" folks! Here is Stan Freberg's tribute to him. You should be aware that FL, Steven Spielberg, and I can do this entire bit from memory. And so can many, many others.
____________________________

Scene One: Columbus Meets With Queen Isabella ( and the King)
Narrator: Fourteen-ninety-two, Madrid. The queen of Spain grants an audience to an obscure Italian sailor. There in her chambers plans are made destined to change the course of history.

Columbus: Alright, we'll go over it once again. First you hock the jewels, you give me the money and I buy the ships. Then I discover the “New World,” you dump the king, and I'll send for you.

Isabella: You say you'll send for me, darling, but will you?

Columbus: Oh, look! We've been all through this before!

Isabella: I know, but really, you're such a dreamer! You'll go out there and you'll sail right off the edge of the world.

Columbus: I will not!

Isabella: Wait! You're such a charming boy, darling. Why don't you forget all this? I'll set you up with a nice little Fiat agency over in West Barcelona.

Columbus: I don't want a Fiat agency.

Isabella: Well, why don't you go to art school like your friend da Vinci? I'll put you through.

Columbus: Look, if Lenny wants to starve to death, that's up to Lenny. Me, I want to discover the New World; carry out my dream . .

(fanfare)

Heralder: His majesty, King Ferdinand!

Isabella: (gasp) The king!

Columbus: Oh, sure, “He'll be at the Inquisition all afternoon,” eh?

Isabella: The time just slipped away. Quickly, take the jewels and go, over the balcony.

(sound of door opening and footsteps)

Columbus: Too late.

Isabella: Good afternoon, dear. How was the Inquisition, amusing?

Ferdinand: Dullsville, same old . . . Hey, who's that?

Isabella: Oh, you remember Christopher Columbus.

Ferdinand: Oh, you mean old "Round, Round World?" You and your Bohemian friends.

Isabella: He's not Bohemian. He's Italian.

Ferdinand: Italian, Bohemian, look at him in that hat! Is that a crazy sailor?

Isabella: Crazy? I'll tell you how crazy! He's a man with a dream, a vision, a vision of a new world, whose alabaster cities gleam undimmed by human tears, with purple mountain majesties above the two cents plain . . .

Ferdinand and Columbus: Fruited.

Isabella: Fruited. He holds these dreams to be self-evident, this round, round world, with Indians and justice for all. Let us then go forward, together, towards Miami Beach, that the dream of this crazy Italian boy, indivisible, should not perish from the map!

Ferdinand and Columbus: (clapping) Bravo! Bravo!

Columbus: Was that moving? Was that a great bit?

Ferdinand: Listen, I always said this girl had a lot . . . wait a minute! I ask a simple question, I get a pageant. Why should Spain sponsor you? Why don't you go to Portugal?

Columbus: I did. They bought “The Price is Right.”

Ferdinand: Oh.

Columbus: Then I have your permission to sail?

Ferdinand: Have you had your shots?

Columbus: I have.

Ferdinand: Permission granted.

Columbus: Gracias, arivaderci.

Ferdinand: Hasta la vista.

Isabella: Adios.

Ferdinand and Columbus: Adios muchachos companeros . . .

Ferdinand: Will you get out of here? (sound of running)

Ferdinand: Strange, he left by the balcony.

Isabella: Force of habit, I guess.

Ferdinand: Yeah . . . Er, how's that again?

Isabella: Nothing!

Ferdinand: Isabella, when are you going to quit fooling around with these nuts?



Scene Two: Columbus' First Voyage

First Mate: Admiral Columbus, sir, the men are weary. On the point of madness.

Columbus: That’s the trouble with labor today. Don’t they realize we’re going to discover the New World?

King: You’ve been saying that for the last 57 days.

Columbus: Well, nobody forced you to come along, Your Majesty.

King: My doctor told me I should go to Florida for the winter.

Columbus: Mm hmm.

King: I still can’t see what you needed three ships for!

Columbus: I got a better deal on the fleet rate.

King: I’ll accept that. But you better sight land soon. There’s rumblings of mutiny!

Columbus: Really?

King: Come over here and listen.

Columbus: Alright.

Crew: Rumble, rumble, rumble. Mutiny, mutiny, mutiny.

Columbus: I see what you mean. I’ll jump up here on the rigging and speak to ‘em.

King: You mean on top of everything else, this ship is rigged?

(Bosun’s whistle)

Columbus: Now hear this, this is the Admiral speaking! I know the going has been rough, but if we can just hold out a while longer-

Crew: Rumble.

Columbus: Stop that rumbling down there!

Crew: Rumble.

King: Who can blame ‘em? The whole thing is madness! I don’t like the way the crew is acting!

Columbus: Well, you’re overplaying a bit yourself, there.

King: I tell you the world is flat, and that’s that!

Columbus: It’s round as your hat.

King: It’s flat as your head.

Columbus: It’s round!

King: It’s flat!


Song: It's A Round, Round World

Columbus:
It's a round, round world,
It's a round, round world!
I contend it's round
And it's gonna be found
(When all the results are in)
It's a round world now and it's always been!

King:
Flat, flat world!
It's a flat, flat world!
I insist it's flat
As a lovely mat
And he’s sailing off the edge-
How about our crazy Italian...

Columbus:
Friend, get hip!
Would I climb aboard this ship
If I didn't have odds
That the earth is highly spherical?

King:
It's a miracle if it is-

Columbus:
Square, square king,
You're a square, square king!
If you don't believe
You're gonna receive
The shock of your royal life
When the ship pulls in at Miami-

Crew:
Yo ho ho
And a dramamine,
We are loyal subjects of the king and queen!
But what kind of nut
Would you have to be
To borrow a ship and put out to sea
When you don't know what's on the other side?

Columbus:
Ferdinand:
Round, round world
All week long on a hardtack bun
It's a round, round world
Brother, who said getting there is
I contend it's round
Half the fun (breath)
And it's gonna be found
Give up my throne for one Navy Bean
When all the results are in
No wonder I'm turning three shades of green
It's a round world now
How could I go on such a loony
And it's always


Columbus:
Crew:
Trip get hip, would I climb
Crazy kind of scheme
Aboard this ship
It's a cockamamy dream
If I didn't have odds
If we don't sight land we're
The earth was highly spherical
gonna scream


Ferdinand:
It's a miracle if it is

Columbus:
Crew:
Square, square crew
Yo, ho, ho through the wind and rain
You're a square, square crew
There's a typhoon coming up
If you don't believe
But where's John Wayne?


Columbus:
Ferdinand:
You're gonna receive
I feel like a red witch
The shock of your salty lives
Having a wake
When I take command in the
How much of the ocean
name of
bit do you think I can take ?
Claim that land in the name of
of...


Columbus:
Isabella and Ferdinand -

Ferdinand:
(That's Ferdinand and Isabella)
Both: New rulers of this round, round world !

Crew:
Crazy kind of scheme
It's a cockamamy dream
But we hope it's a round, round
world!

King: Well, for all our sakes, I hope-

Lookout: Land, ho!

King: What was that?

Columbus: French horns.

King: No, before that.

Columbus: It was the lookout. He sighted land!

Crew: Hooray!

Columbus: Quickly, hand me the glass. (sound of equipment)

Columbus: No, no, the other one!

King: Oh… Oh! (sound of champagne poured into a glass)

Columbus: To the New World!

King: Likewise!


Scene Three: Columbus Is Discovered!

King: Alright, go ahead, give the kid top billing.

Columbus: Ah, it was just a thought.

King: No, go ahead.

Columbus: Alright-(clears throat) I claim this land in the name of Queen Isabella and King Ferdinand of Spain!

Native: How!

Columbus: Well, first I stick the flag in the sand, and then I-

King: Watch yourself, Admiral. Natives-they may be hostile.

Columbus: Well, we’re all a little hostile now and then; some of us can sublimate, others can’t adjust. You know how it is…

King: I know, but you better try and talk to ‘em!

Columbus: Alright, alright. Hello there, hello there. We white men--other side of ocean. My name Christopher Columbus.

Native: Oh? You over here on a Fulbright?

Columbus: Huh? Uh, no,no, I’m over here on an Isabella, as a matter of fact. Which reminds me, I want to take a few of you guys back on the boat with me to prove I discovered you.

Native: What you mean, you discover us? We discover you.

Columbus: You discovered us?

Native: Certainly. We discover you on beach here. Is all how you look at it.

Columbus: Yeah, I never thought of that. At any rate, my men and I were wondering if you could spare a little food?

Native: What kind num-nums you want?

Columbus: Well, what is that strange plant you’re holding there, with yellow kernels?

Native: You mean this? (brass fanfare)

Columbus: Yes. What is that?

Native: French horns.

Columbus: No, what you’re holding in your hand.

Native: Oh-corn.

Columbus: That’s what I thought it was. What else you got to eat around here?

Native: Oh, Berries, herbs, naturally grown fruits, and organically grown vegetables.

Columbus: That’s what I suspected. What kind of a diet is that? That’s why I’ve come here. To fulfill my dream.

Native: You have a dream?

Columbus: Yes, I do.

Native: Would you like to talk about it?

Columbus: I certainly would. My dream is to open the first Italian restaurant in your country. Give me some real food: starches, spaghetti, cholesterol-all the better things. That’s called progress, you see?

Native: Hmmmm.

Columbus: Now right here would be a good location for the restaurant. Ocean view and all that. Is there room for a parking lot?

Native: You kidding? Whole country is parking lot.

Columbus: I s’pose. Well, I’d like to put a little deposit down on the property here.

Native: Okay.

Columbus: I only have a few dubloons on me, so if you’ll direct me to the nearest bank, I’ll get a check cashed.

Native: You out of luck today. Banks closed.

Columbus: Oh? Why?

Native: Columbus Day.

Columbus: Oh, yeah…We going out on that joke?

Native: No, we do reprise of song, that help.

Native and Columbus: But not much, no…..



Song: It's A Round, Round World (Reprise)


Columbus:
Indians:
Round, round world
Yo, ho, ho and a buckskin sleeve
It's a newfound world
Now the white man's here I guess
And the land looks good
It's time to leave
Like a continent should
But why go to war and fight like
Complete with a flag unfurled
a jerk
Perhaps we can pick up some kind of work
In an Indian extravaganza
Wyatt Earp or Bonanza -


Columbus: Please don't call us, we'll call you -

Ferdinand: Step aside pal, meet the new -

Both: Big cheeses of this round, round world !

freberg.8m.com