Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 50% Gains Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (35182)	10/13/2003 10:36:33 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 118717

Raymond James Energy Stat of the Week, published 10/13/2003. As winter weather is approaching, concerns have begun surfacing regarding the possibility of a warmer winter derailing our natural gas thesis. Despite several current weather forecasts (including the ever reliable Farmer’s Almanac) calling for a cooler winter this year, we chose to rely on a statistical-based probability analysis. We simply laid out past 104 years of historical data, and reached the conclusion that there is less than a 20% probability that the winter will be warm enough to cause U.S. natural gas prices to fall significantly below $4.50/Mcf. In fact, with an 83% confidence level, we believe this winter weather to be at worst 4% warmer than normal, with the bulk of the distribution curve being skewed to the left, or cooler than normal. That being said, we believe winter gas prices are likely to average between $4.50/Mcf and $6.50/Mcf with a 30% probability that prices spike much higher with colder weather.