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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (26350)	10/14/2003 3:36:35 PM
From: Tomas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206326

A Winter Gas Shortage... What are the Odds? Raymond James` Energy "Stat of the Week", October 13 beacon1.rjf.com

To: Tommaso who wrote (26350)	10/14/2003 3:36:53 PM
From: excardog	Respond to of 206326

Not particularly excited about any E&P at present. Prefer the drill side going forward. That's just me wish you well on Royal.

To: Tommaso who wrote (26350)	10/14/2003 3:43:20 PM
From: White Bear	Respond to of 206326

Saudi Arabia cuts deep to Europe and USA By Oscar Jacobsen in Oslo Published: 14.10.2003 \| Last updated: 14.10.2003 Saudi Arabia is still the world's largest oil producer. Because of this, the country carries enormous clout in the OPEC cartel. The kingdom now produces around 8.5 million barrels per day of oil. Nearly 4.5 million barrels per day is exported with 2 million bpd going to Asia, 1.5 million bpd going to the USA and 1 million bpd going to Europe. Last month OPEC decided to cut production. This means less oil flowing from Saudi Arabia to the world. The production cuts are due to start on the 1 November, or in about two weeks. Here's how Saudi will cut it with its international customer base. Saudi supplies to Europe will be cut by 10% in November to 900,000 barrels per day. From December onwards the reduction will reach 30 to 35%. The USA will have its supplies cut by 9% in November, falling to a level 33% percent under full contractual volumes. Information on supply cuts to Asian oil buyers is not available yet, but if the 3,5% production cuts are maintained, and exports to Europe and the US are as deep as outlined above, only around 60,000 barrels per day less would flow to Asia, a mere 3%. The reason for cutting European supplies so much deeper than Asian supplies, could be that Saudi crude costs less in Europe than it does in Asia, where buyers pay an "Asian premium" of around US$2 per barrel compared to on the European market. "It's deeper than we expected," one trader told Reuters. OPEC's decision to cut production last month came as a surprise to most. The cuts have caused the price of oil to rise sharply across the world. The International Petroleum Exchange in London yesterday closed trading in its December Brent Crude contract at just under US$31 per barrel. OPEC has set a long term target of oil prices stable between US$25 and US$28. The West Texas Intermediate contract for December at the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at well over US$31 per barrel, making the price of oil the highest it has been for some time. The effect of the OPEC cut on freight rates came early. Just a few days after the cuts were announced, tanker rates for big tonnage fell sharply on routes out of the Middle East. To the US rates are now hovering around US$ 23,000 per day which is just above the break even level for most modern VLCCs. To Asian destinations such as Japan and South Korea, rates are marginally better at around US$25,000 per day, but still a long way off the US$ 60,000 per day achieved by John Fredriksen's 1991 built VLCC Front Lord fixed going East from the Middle East loading 2 October. Still, the heavy weights in the tanker market believe rates will rise by as much as 50% on today's level. Trading in tanker freight futures contracts on the International Maritime Exchange (IMAREX) bears witness to this positive mood in the market. The VLCC MEG-Japan freight futures contract for the fourth quarter of 2003 is now trading up 5 points at W73 or US$ 38,355 per day, from W68 on Friday equivalent to US$ 34,845 per day. So, rates to Asian destinations are expected to recover, whilst rates to European and US destinations are expected to lag a little before recovering. Much depends on what the US Department of Energy has to say about its stock levels on Thursday.

To: Tommaso who wrote (26350)	10/14/2003 4:07:47 PM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 206326

I've bought ROYL in the past two weeks, might buy more if it drops under $7.00 again. It's a REALLY thin stock - anything over 500 share seems to move it 10-15 cents or more, especially if it's quite. I'm not Jim P , but getting in or out a good size position could move it 50 cents or even more. They have some good oil finds, in addition to the California gas. I expect them to be $9.00-$11.00 around Spring of 2004. I also like KCS, which has been moving up, and TMR. Thought about buying UPL and missed the boat... ROYL has a number of fans, but it's so thin, we almost have to wait our turn to buy.