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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (1469)	10/14/2003 3:38:37 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

I think some, may be majority, are contractors, but some should be employees. Are we going to see layoffs in RE financing? By now they have definitely worked thru all their backlogs. Interest rates are higher then they were during all last year. EDIT: Refi offers were the most calls I got this year

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (1469)	10/14/2003 8:35:58 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

It would show up in some form in withholding taxes, and that's why I'm following the Daily Treasury Statement (see link under "lab tools"). The telemarketing and mortgage layoffs may be starting to show up? Something is. The latest week, was another poor one: 19,969 (03) vs 20,187 (02) -1.1% Then the start of the next week comparing Fri 10-10-2003 with 10-11-2002 was 4,687 vs 4,969, so an ugly six day comparison with last year. Tomorrow would be the two day report covering Columbus Day, and it might be illustrative? and that's on top of a weak one the week before: 8/22-8/28/03 19,208 +0.1% 8/23-08/29/02 19,180 8/29-9/04 32,387 -0.9% 8/30-9/05 32,683 9/05-9/11 18,632 -1.4% 9/6-9/12 18,900 9/12-9/18 29,769 -2.9% 9/13-9/19 30,644 9/19- 9/25 21,943 +5.6% 9/20-9/26 20,748 9/26-10/2 33,670 +1.8% 9/26-10/2 33,084 10/3-10/6 12,236 -1.9% 10/4-10/7 12,479 On retail sales, look at Mitsubishi report. No more easy comparisons against the very weak July-August numbers of 2002. Tougher comparisons, and this week's report showed a slow down: btmna.com