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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (4890)	10/14/2003 5:52:31 PM
From: All Mtn Ski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

Well, disagreements sure make for good discussions. <g> I think the world economy is wounded and 5% GDP growth is not going to be sustainable. Where are the jobs to keep the revenues flowing to be used for tech purchases? We need to see months and months of 150k jobs being created for any economic recovery to be sustainable, IMHO. With an economic recovery that fails, after a run of 12-18 months starting earlier this year and ending sometime late next year, the broad-based demand may not be there for a long sustained semi recovery. Why haven't the execs started to purchase capacity additions when the advanced nodes are in the 90's percent utilization range? Do they see this recovery as suspect? Or have they been so burned in past cycles, that they will need to be dragged, kicking and screaming to the purchasing table? I am not a doomsayer, I would love a long cycle, because I invest in semis and would make a bundle. But from my analysis, I have to think that caution is warranted. Nothing like putting your mind set in a 18 month recovery mode to be met with a harsh reality in 10 months. I'd rather have the mind set that this is a tradeable run, but that it could end badly, thus extra vigilance would be prudent. That's really all I'm saying. A-M-S PS: NVLS lowers rev guidance for the 4th QTR: 4:55PM Novellus guides for Q4 (NVLS) 37.42 +0.47: -- Update -- On call, says it expects bookings of $230-245 mln in Q4 with best estimate at $235 mln; shipments between $210-225 mln with best estimate at $218 mln; SAB 101 revenues between $210-220 mln with best estimate at $214 mln; and EPS between $0.02-0.07 with best estimate at $0.05... Reuters Research consensus estimates are for EPS of $0.05 and revenue of $242.8 mln finance.yahoo.com