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To: energyplay who wrote (39588)	10/14/2003 8:26:33 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

>>The open questions: Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, Phillipines, Burma and the Koreas>> Gravitate as satellites between India and China. Borneo -today called Kalimantan is part of Indonesia. Indonesia and the Philipinnes will be sources of cheap mapower. North Korea is easy to get rid of. Give the governing elite golden parachutes and country is off their hands in a week. Like when a compnay takeover anohter and want to soft the resolve of the management of the target company. Japan turning into a Switzerland is a very likely outcome. Countries have money but don't matter. Perhaps Eastern Europe will be the tail that wil wag the dog Western Europe.

To: energyplay who wrote (39588)	10/14/2003 8:58:02 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

RRI; Message 19401068 opinion ?... or wait till it breaks six as the subsequent post suggests :o)

To: energyplay who wrote (39588)	10/14/2003 9:24:26 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Winter power Published: October 14 2003 16:01 \| Last Updated: October 14 2003 16:01 Dont bother stocking up on candles and thermal underwear just yet. A couple of power cuts in London and Birmingham were enough to generate warnings that the power system of England and Wales was on the brink of collapse. More severe disruptions in Italy, the US and Denmark have reinforced the message. But National Grid Transco's report to the energy regulator on the coming winter makes it clear that disaster is not quite so imminent. The report suggests getting through the winter could, if everything possible goes wrong, be a close-run thing. Predicted peak demand for a cold winter is 55.7 gigawatts (up from an actual peak of 54.4GW last December), against 55.3GW of currently notified generating capacity. But there is another 0.8GW of mothballed plant that can be brought back quickly at short notice. Some power is also likely to be imported from Scotland and France. The overall message is that market signals are working. When the generating safety cushion stood at 27 per cent, prices fell. They have now climbed above £25 per megawatt hour for the first quarter of 2004 and electricity companies have decided to bring plants such as Isle of Grain and Fifoots out of mothballs. Will market signals also act in the longer term, by encouraging the construction of new plants to replace some of the old, dirty coal stations that will become obsolete over the next five years? A lot of new plants - and not all of them wind farms - are under discussion, so the signs are promising.

To: energyplay who wrote (39588)	10/15/2003 12:32:52 AM
From: Snowshoe	Respond to of 74559

Japan might turn into Switzerland Another analogy floated recently (in Barrons?) is that Japan will become like Venice: a rich but irrelevant place coasting on it's past history. Time will tell.

To: energyplay who wrote (39588)	10/15/2003 12:58:47 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi EP, The differences between the Japanese and the Swiss is (a) The Swiss is a small population surrounded by more rather than less other friendly populations, making watches that are difficult to learn to do well, earning money that the Swiss are not trying to trash; whereas (b) the Japanese is a relatively much larger population, requiring more, but surrounded by folks they had done wrong to, and Japan makes things that others are making, and will eventually make better, even as the Japanese currency is being trashed. May or may not be a big difference, but maybe large enough to matter. Chugs, Jay