President Rallying Support in Polls
Rebound Sets Campaign Team into Action
By Mike Allen and Claudia Deane
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, October 15, 2003; Page A06
Heartened by opinion polls indicating President Bush's six-month slide may have ended, his aides are working to reassure supporters that his standing is solid despite a fall full of setbacks.
Bush aides expressed relief at several polls this week, including a Washington Post-ABC News poll released yesterday, that found the president's approval rating stabilizing after a steady drop since Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was ousted in mid-April. Bush's approval rating in the Post-ABC poll was 53 percent. That is statistically unchanged from the end of last month, and 5 percentage points down from mid-September.
Although aides contend that Bush disdains polls, he paused to relish his latest showing during an interview yesterday about his upcoming trip to Asia.
"There was a poll that showed me going up yesterday, not to be on the defensive," he told Australia's Channel 9 television, according to an Associated Press report. "Actually, I'm in pretty good shape, politically. I really am. I didn't mean to sound defensive. But I am. Politicians, by the way, who pay attention to the polls are doomed, trying to chase opinion when what you need to do is lead, set the tone."
At the equivalent times before their reelection races, President Bill Clinton was at 52 percent and President George H.W. Bush was at 65 percent.
Leaving nothing to chance, Bush-Cheney campaign manager Ken Mehlman summoned a few trusted lobbyists, pundits and pollsters to the Arlington headquarters last week for a strategy preview.
One person close to the campaign said that, paraphrased, the message was, "Don't believe the stories that the sky is falling on this presidency."
An attendee said the tone of the briefing, which the campaign said was scheduled over the summer, was boosterish but not Pollyanna-ish. "They're very realistic," this attendee said. "They have very good historical perspectives of where they are. They've got an accurate view of where they have to go and how they will get there."
The meeting came as the White House was working to dispel what some analysts see as an appearance of drift that began when Bush returned from his August ranch vacation and continued through a month of disappointing news, including the launch of the first criminal investigation of his staff.
Bush and Vice President Cheney unveiled more assertive stump speeches last week, first lady Laura Bush threw away a planned talk about heart disease and instead celebrated the liberation of Iraqi women, and Bush and his Cabinet repeatedly suggested that news outlets are slanting news from Iraq.
In New Hampshire last week, Bush made an unscripted stop at a restaurant, something he has rarely done. In Washington, the first lady dined on rockfish and iced tea at Zola with 29 female correspondents at an off-the-record luncheon sponsored by American Urban Radio Networks.
Bush aides took the unusual step last week of announcing a public relations offensive on Iraq. But it was partly drowned out by a public glimpse of internal disarray, with Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld complaining to interviewers that national security adviser Condoleezza Rice had not consulted him on a new structure giving the White House greater control over the reconstruction.
Republican officials said the most important part of their comeback strategy is for Bush to achieve legislative victories, most notably the approval of his $87 billion request for Iraq, an energy bill and a prescription drug benefit for Medicare.
"Timing is everything," said Rep. Deborah Pryce (Ohio), chairman of the House Republican Conference. "People will see he is very engaged as we finish these bills."
Remembering the plunge of the approval rating of Bush's father to 28 percent, some aides to this president said they had begun to wonder whether his polls would have a floor. They said they found solace in recent polls, including a CNN-USA Today-Gallup survey that showed Bush's approval rating bouncing back to 56 percent from 50 percent in mid-September.
In the Post-ABC poll, the percentage approving of Bush's handling of the economy increased to 46, from 42 last month. But 51 percent disapprove.
Among other troubling signs for Bush: 46 percent said they would reelect him if the election were held today, while 47 percent would vote for the yet-to-chosen Democratic nominee. The percentage that thinks the war in Iraq was worth fighting dropped to 54 percent, from 61 percent a month ago. Majorities said they do not believe the Bush administration has a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq and said they consider the number of U.S. military casualties in Iraq to be unacceptable.
The Post-ABC poll included 1,000 adults interviewed between Oct. 9 and 13. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Matthew Dowd, the campaign's senior strategist, said the numbers indicate that Bush's situation is different from that of his father, who also lost a big wartime lead during a bleak economy. When his approval rating started dropping, it didn't stop until it was under 30.
"The numbers have stopped falling and are basically back up," Dowd said. "All the bad news has had basically no real impact on the numbers."
Nicolle Devenish, the campaign's communications director, said the polls reflect a closely divided country and have made a predictable return to "more realistic levels" after the war.
Democrats assert that the polls show weaknesses that cannot redressed through public relations offensives. "All the flag-waving press conferences in the world can't disguise the unease that the American public has with our policy in Iraq and our economic direction," Rep. Edward J. Markey (Mass.) said. |
