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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (66720)	10/15/2003 9:21:20 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Arghh... I'll sell my cows by then. Tight stops is the key to success. -g-

To: William H Huebl who wrote (66720)	10/15/2003 9:34:16 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Tick - tock finance.yahoo.com^TNX&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= finance.yahoo.com^TYX&t=3m If you think the dollar moving up now is bullish - think again. It's the mortgage finance industry hedges blowing up in their faces.... The hedge was long bonds, short the dollar. One has to read the Credit bubble bulletin by Doug Noland (on prudentbear) to understand the role of GSEs (Fannie and Freddie) in liquidity creation. The Fed just sets the interest rates. They are the ones pumping all the liquidity into the system, according to Noland. Again, I think interest rates hold the key here. If they are unable to move above August highs, and start moving lower, then the dollar move higher is bullish. Otherwise, it's not, and will have a credit derivative crisis, in which the dollar will reverse and crash. BWDIK? BK time may start when rates move above August highs, which are pretty close right now. We should watch credit spreads as well, such as 10-year swap spread. High spreads indicate credit market stress. When the meltdown in derivatives is about to happen, we will be able to see it in Agency and 10-year swap spreads.